This long - term change in the East Asian monsoon index is consistent with a tendency for a southward shift of
the summer rain belt over eastern China (Zhai et al., 2004).
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Zhakarov's model is conceptually simple: during periods of high precipitation when winter ice forms readily,
summer ice cover increases, the atmosphere cools, the arctic front together with its associated
rain belt shifts south so that freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean decreases, and winter ice cover is thicker, has a deeper draft, and so survives better in
summer.