Core PS2757 - 8 is located on the southern Lomonosov Ridge close to the Laptev Sea continental margin, an area that is predominantly covered by sea ice (Fig. 1; 7/10
summer sea ice concentration) but may occasionally be even ice - free during summer.
The fourth core, Core PS2138 - 2, is located at the Barents Sea continental margin, an area with a seasonal sea ice cover and a strong influence of warm Atlantic Water inflow today (Fig. 1; ca. 4/10
summer sea ice concentration).
The important news is that in five
summers the sea ice concentration over the Arctic has not recovered from its precipitous decline in 2007.
Whereas most proxy - based reconstructions point to an early - middle LIG climatic optimum with reduced
summer sea ice concentrations between 126 and 116 ka, the results of our model simulations only support a pronounced reduction in summer sea ice concentration for the LIG - 125 and LIG - 130 runs (in both time slice as well as transient runs; Figs. 8 and 9), but also indicate that sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean even under climatic conditions significantly warmer than today (Fig. 4).
Whereas the mid-LIG
summer sea ice concentrations were still around 60 to 75 % in the central Arctic Ocean, but only around 20 % or less along the Atlantic - Water influenced Barents Sea continental margin, nearly ice - free conditions might be reached in the entire Arctic Ocean in 2300.
At the Barents Sea continental margin (i.e., at site PS2138 - 2) strongly influenced by Atlantic Water inflow, minimum
summer sea ice concentrations of about 25 % were simulated for the 125 ka time slice (Fig. 8d).
Not exact matches
The AMO is likely to be a driver of multi-decadal variations in Sahel droughts, precipitation in the Caribbean,
summer climate of both North America and Europe,
sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
Sea and
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
The average historic
summer minimum (the yellow line in Fig. 1) indicates large portions of the Chukchi
Sea's foraging habitat have been covered with
summer ice concentrations of 50 % and greater for much of the 20th century.
Likewise,
concentrations of Arctic
summer sea ice ranged from 2 months more
sea ice to 4 months more open water.27
Even natural variability can impact medium term
sea ice declines (or increases) but it is the long term constant external forcing from the rapidly increasing GH gas
concentrations that will ultimately bring about the very likely
ice free
summer Arctic later this century.
a Average
sea ice concentration 1988 — 2007 for March (winter maximum) and September (
summer minimum)(Source: http://nsidc.org/).
During the MIS 5 interstadials, a seasonal
sea ice cover and
ice - edge conditions seem to have been most prominent, with minimum
sea ice concentrations towards almost
ice - free
summers during MIS 5e (Eemian)(Fig. 3b).
Because of the importance of initial conditions for the
sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and
summer ice concentrations and
ice conditions, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.
Because of the importance of initial conditions for the
sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and
summer ice concentrations and
ice condition, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.
Very early in the season this whole area already exhibited a significantly lower
sea ice concentration that accentuated throughout the
summer season.
The AMO is likely to be a driver of multi-decadal variations in Sahel droughts, precipitation in the Caribbean,
summer climate of both North America and Europe,
sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
Sea and
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
Nearly all studies to date published in the peer - reviewed literature agree that
summer Arctic
sea ice extent is rapidly declining and that, if heat - trapping gas
concentrations continue to rise, an essentially
ice - free
summer Arctic ocean will be realized before mid-century.
She says improved
summer weather predictions as well as satellite measurements of
sea ice thickness and
concentration could help forecasting.
Scientific confidence of the occurrence of climate change include, for example, that over at least the last 50 years there have been increases in the atmospheric
concentration of CO2; increased nitrogen and soot (black carbon) deposition; changes in the surface heat and moisture fluxes over land; increases in lower tropospheric and upper ocean temperatures and ocean heat content; the elevation of
sea level; and a large decrease in
summer Arctic
sea ice coverage and a modest increase in Antarctic
sea ice coverage.
Walker and colleagues have found that the vegetation's productivity depends on
summer land temperature and late spring
sea -
ice concentration.
Figure 3: Percentage difference in monthly mean surface ozone
concentrations in March, between the run in which spring and
summer sea ice is removed («extreme scenario») and the run in which no perturbations were applied.
Figure 2: Percentage difference in monthly mean surface OH
concentrations in August, between the run in which late -
summer sea ice is removed («realistic scenario») and the run in which no perturbations were applied.
Figure 1: A NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model simulation shows a dramatic decrease in late
summer Arctic
sea ice concentrations by 2085.