• Abundant prey and adequate sea ice in spring and early summer since 2007 appear to explain why global polar bear numbers have not declined, as might have been expected as a result of low
summer sea ice levels.
So using IPCC terminology, this is like saying there is up to a 10 % chance that
Summer sea ice levels will occur by JFM - 2050.
The total failure of polar bear numbers to crash as predicted in response to the abrupt decline in summer sea ice in 2007 and persistent low
summer sea ice levels since then (Crockford 2017), is vindication for Mitch Taylor.
Not exact matches
That half a degree is the difference between low - lying island states surviving, or Arctic
ice remaining over the North Pole in summer, or increasing the risk of losing the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet or Greenland ice sheet (either one of which implies an eight - metre sea level ris
ice remaining over the North Pole in
summer, or increasing the risk of losing the Western Antarctic
Ice Sheet or Greenland ice sheet (either one of which implies an eight - metre sea level ris
Ice Sheet or Greenland
ice sheet (either one of which implies an eight - metre sea level ris
ice sheet (either one of which implies an eight - metre
sea level rise.)
Never mind that this
summer saw a record - breaking meltdown of Arctic
sea ice, presaging rising
sea levels and more extremely weird weather.
Ice melting occurs during the summer when temperatures rise above freezing in some places, depending on how high the ice is above sea level and how close it is to a po
Ice melting occurs during the
summer when temperatures rise above freezing in some places, depending on how high the
ice is above sea level and how close it is to a po
ice is above
sea level and how close it is to a pole.
But this year, a big spring meltdown in October and November suddenly reversed that trend and has led to continued record low
sea ice levels as the
summer melt season progressed.
Consistent with observed changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small
ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and
summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
The East Asian
summer monsoon and desertification in Eurasia is driven by fluctuating Northern Hemisphere
ice volume and global sea level during the Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communicatio
ice volume and global
sea level during the
Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communicatio
Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communications.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow
summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to
levels representative of recent decades.
The AMO is likely to be a driver of multi-decadal variations in Sahel droughts, precipitation in the Caribbean,
summer climate of both North America and Europe,
sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
Sea and
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
[Response:
Sea ice is still not at levels seen during the Early Holocene, and since we are discussing sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
Sea ice is still not at
levels seen during the Early Holocene, and since we are discussing
sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of
summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea ice will warm the bottom
sea water, we are clearly not there y
sea water, we are clearly not there yet.
Having said that, it is a really small effect — if the entire Arctic
summer sea ice pack melted (average thickness 2 metres, density ~ 920 kg / m3, area 3 × 10 ^ 6 km ^ 2 (0.8 % total ocean area) = > a 4.5 cm rise instantly which implies a global
sea level rise of 0.36 mm.
The record melting of Arctic
sea ice observed this
summer and fall led to record - low
levels of
ice in both September and October, but a record - setting pace of re-freezing in November, according to the NASA Earth Observatory.
Here's how the summary put it: «The June 2010 Outlook indicates a continuation of the overall trend in long - term loss of
summer Arctic
sea ice, with no indication that a return to historical
levels of the 1980s / 1990s will occur.»
Tags: acceleration, climate change, daily mail, daily telegraph, drainage system, geographer, global warming, greenland
ice sheet, himalayan glacier, himalayan glaciers, hot
summer, internal drainage, jan 28, journal nature, karakoram range, london jan, oceans, range of mountains,
sea levels, university of potsdam
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of
sea ice area and global NCEP air temperature,
sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average
summer sea ice conditions for the Arctic.
The Arctic's
sea ice pack thawed to its third - lowest
summer level on record, up slightly from the seasonal melt of the past two years but continuing an overall decline symptomatic of climate change, U.S. scientists said on Thursday.
Arctic air temperatures are increasing at twice the rate of the rest of the world — a study by the U. S. Navy says that the Arctic could lose its
summer sea ice by next year, eighty - four years ahead of the models — and evidence little more than a year old suggests the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean leve
ice by next year, eighty - four years ahead of the models — and evidence little more than a year old suggests the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean leve
Ice Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean
levels.
What's more, the thinning is even steeper for September
sea -
ice levels, when
sea ice is at its lowest after the
summer melt.
In contrast, the actual science shows something quite different: though
summer sea ice since 2007 has declined to
levels not predicted until 2040 - 2070, there has been virtually no negative impact on polar bear health or survival, a result no one predicted back in 2005.
And remember, the satellite data are one small part of a vast amount of data that overwhelmingly show our planet is warming up: retreating glaciers, huge amounts of
ice melting at both poles, the «death spiral» of arctic
ice every year at the
summer minimum over time, earlier annual starts of warm weather and later starts of cold weather, warming oceans, rising
sea levels, ocean acidification, more extreme weather, changing weather patterns overall, earlier snow melts, and lower snow cover in the spring...
Disappearing Arctic
sea ice —
summer ice extent was at its lowest
level in recorded history in 2007 and almost hit that
level in 2008 — also will warm the Arctic Ocean, since a dark,
ice - free
sea absorbs more solar radiation than a white,
ice - covered one.
This week, it was those darn walruses, who — after a
summer when Arctic
sea ice was at its sixth - lowest
level on record — mobbed an Alaska beach in the largest such haul - out ever observed there.
Total
sea ice extent for the previous three months was near or below the
level of 2007, the year with the lowest minimum
summer ice extent during the satellite record.
Anthony: How come we don't drown via
sea level rise each Arctic
summer (assuming Antarctica doesn't freeze as much
ice as melts in the Arctic)?
If so, what is driving this transition and when will
summer sea ice extent drop down to a lower
level?
You can't fake spring coming earlier, or trees growing higher up on mountains, or glaciers retreating for kilometres up valleys, or shrinking
ice cover in the Arctic, or birds changing their migration times, or permafrost melting in Alaska, or the tropics expanding, or
ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula breaking up, or peak river flow occurring earlier in
summer because of earlier snowmelt, or
sea level rising faster and faster, or any of the thousands of similar examples.
Thinner
ice takes less energy to melt than thicker
ice, so the stage was set for low
levels of
sea ice this
summer.»
The University of Earth: Urgent Action Series: COP 21 Paris 2015: Dr. Dirk Notz, Arctic
Sea Ice, Max Planck Institute of Meterology, Hamburg, 50 % loss of thickness and size of summer ice, CO2 levels are linearly related to levels of Arctic Sea I
Ice, Max Planck Institute of Meterology, Hamburg, 50 % loss of thickness and size of
summer ice, CO2 levels are linearly related to levels of Arctic Sea I
ice, CO2
levels are linearly related to
levels of Arctic
Sea IceIce.
With regard to
summer meteorological forcing, 2007 was dominated by a strong dipole pattern in
sea level pressure (SLP), with high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and winds blowing from the Bering Strait across the North Pole, promoting both advection of warm air and compaction of the ice pa
sea level pressure (SLP), with high pressure over the Beaufort
Sea and winds blowing from the Bering Strait across the North Pole, promoting both advection of warm air and compaction of the ice pa
Sea and winds blowing from the Bering Strait across the North Pole, promoting both advection of warm air and compaction of the
ice pack.
It raises the
sea level due to the melting of polar
ice (which is already recognised to be destined for total
summer melting), which will relocate tens of millions of people.
(04/01/2013) Warming about twice as fast as the rest of the world, the Arctic is already undergoing massive upheavals from climate change:
summer sea ice is thinning and vanishing, land based
ice sheets are melting, and
sea levels are rising.
Last
summer, James Hansen — the pioneer of modern climate science — pieced together a research - based revelation: a little - known feedback cycle between the oceans and massive
ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland might have already jump - started an exponential surge of
sea levels.
The AMO is likely to be a driver of multi-decadal variations in Sahel droughts, precipitation in the Caribbean,
summer climate of both North America and Europe,
sea ice concentration in the Greenland Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea and sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
Sea and
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 200
sea level pressure over the southern USA, the North Atlantic and southern Europe (e.g., Venegas and Mysak, 2000; Goldenberg et al., 2001; Sutton and Hodson, 2005; Trenberth and Shea, 2006).
Such temperatures begin to threaten key climate impacts like permafrost thaw, 3 - 4 meters of
sea -
level rise from West Antarctic
Ice Sheet melt, risk of up to 80 percent mountain glacier loss, complete Arctic sea ice loss during summer, and 6 - 7 meters of sea level rise from Greenland me
Ice Sheet melt, risk of up to 80 percent mountain glacier loss, complete Arctic
sea ice loss during summer, and 6 - 7 meters of sea level rise from Greenland me
ice loss during
summer, and 6 - 7 meters of
sea level rise from Greenland melt.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow
summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to
levels representative of recent decades.
The small global mean change, however, is expected to create large problems in sensitive areas of the Earth system — rising
sea level leading to increased coastal flooding, more heat waves and drought, and the disappearance of
summer Arctic
sea ice, to name a few.
The thawing process has already started with
sea -
ice levels at their lowest this
summer.
[2] In
summer 2012, NASA announced that Arctic
sea ice levels had reached a record low.
Sea levels are rising (ask the Mayor of Miami who has spent tax monies to raise road
levels), we've had 15 of the hottest years eve measured, more precipitation is coming down in heavy doses (think Houston), we're seeing more floods and drought than ever before (consistent with predictions), the oceans are measuring warmer, lake
ice in North America is thawing sooner (where it happens in northern states and Canada), most glaciers are shrinking, early spring snowpacks out west have declined since the 1950's, growing seasons are longer throughout the plains, bird wintering ranges have moved north, leaf and bloom dates recorded by Thoreau in Walden have shifted in that area, insect populations that used to have one egg - larva - adult cycle in the
summer now have two, the list goes on and on.
If the Arctic Ocean becomes
ice - free in the
summer, it would not affect
sea level because the
ice is already in the water, but it would alter the regional heat balance.
Keep up the good work, I for one am sleeping better knowing you're debunking those climate change nutters, who, as far as I'm concerned, are probably just basing their conclusions on irrelevant things like record
summer temperatures, melting
ice - caps, rising
sea levels, weather chaos, increasing crop failures, species extinction, ocean acidification... blah, blah, blah.
Most climatologists believe that if temperatures rise more than another 1 degree C by 2100, conditions on the planet could become radically different and disruptive, including sharp shifts in precipitation patterns, more severe storms and droughts, the disappearance of the Arctic
ice cap in
summer, Greenland
ice sheet instability, and much higher
sea levels.
But this year, a big spring meltdown in October and November suddenly reversed that trend and has led to continued record low
sea ice levels as the
summer melt season progressed.
Increased Arctic
summer insolation caused an estimated < 3.5 °C summertime warming of Greenland, and shrinkage of the GIS contributed an estimated 1.9 — 3.0 m to
sea level, although a widespread
ice cap remained (24).
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic
sea ice at its
summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006 average), and in
sea -
level rise.
In September, National Snow and
Ice Data Center's director Mark Serreze said, «The volume of ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month» and «I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spir
Ice Data Center's director Mark Serreze said, «The volume of
ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month» and «I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spir
ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever
level this month» and «I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic
summer sea ice cover is in a death spir
ice cover is in a death spiral.
This past
summer, the Arctic
sea ice dwindled to its second lowest
level.
This is likely due to the maximum orbitally forced
summer insolation, enhancing the melting of
ice sheets and thus a
sea -
level rise.