Despite the range in equilibrium sensitivity of 2.1 °C to 4.4 °C for CMIP3 models, they reproduce the global
surface air temperature anomaly of 0.76 °C over 1850 — 2005 to within 25 % relative error.
To continue with my previous comment, I've created an image which compares a graph of Atlantic tropical storm systems to a graph of global
surface air temperature anomalies from 1851 to 2004:
According to NOAA's 2016 Arctic Report Card, the average
annual surface air temperature anomaly (+3.6 °F / 2.0 °C relative to the 1981 - 2010 baseline) over land north of 60 ° N between October 2015 and September 2016 was by far the highest in the observational record beginning in 1900.
Confirmation that these spatially and temporally complex adjustments are quite realistic globally is emerging from simulations of the Jones (1994) land -
surface air temperature anomalies using the Hadley Centre atmospheric climate model HadAM3 forced with observed SST and sea - ice extents since 1871, updated from Rayner et al. (1996).
A statistical forecast, based on canonical correlation analysis and using
fall surface air temperature anomalies over the Beaufort Sea as the predictor for September sea ice concentration (Figure 2) submitted by Tivy, shows a high probability of above - normal ice concentrations in the southern Beaufort Sea and a high probability of below - normal ice concentrations slightly north of the region of first - year ice in Figure 1.
Figure 2.4 (Folland et al., 2001) shows simulations of global land -
surface air temperature anomalies in model runs forced with SST, with and without bias adjustments to the SST data before 1942.
Surface air temperature anomaly for boreal winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) 2017 relative to the respective seasonal average for the period 1981 - 2010.
Back in 2008, a cottage industry sprang up to assess what impact the Thompson et al related changes would make on
the surface air temperature anomalies and trends — with estimates ranging from complete abandonment of the main IPCC finding on attribution to, well, not very much.
January 16, 2013: Starting with the January 2013 update, NCDC's ERSST v3b data will be used to estimate
the surface air temperature anomalies over the ocean instead of a combination of Reynold's OISST (1982 to present) and data obtained from the Hadley Center (1880 - 1981).
Surface air temperature anomaly for February 2018 relative to the February average for the period 1981 - 2010.
Running twelve - month averages of global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month averages of global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
Monthly global - mean and European - mean
surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, from January 1979 to March 2018.
Surface air temperature anomaly averaged from March 2017 to February 2018 relative to the average for 1981 - 2010.
Surface air temperature anomaly averaged from April 2017 to March 2018 relative to the average for 1981 - 2010.
The averaged
surface air temperature anomaly (dT) is widely recognised to be the most important index characterising the global climate changes including «global warming» (Bell et al. 1998; Anisimov and Polyakov 1999).
Surface air temperature anomalies (departures from 1981 - 2010) averaged from mid-May to mid-July in Arctic and global projections.