Summer
surface air temperature change relative to the present over the Arctic (left) and ice thickness and extent for Greenland and western arctic glaciers (right) for the last interglacial, approximately 125,000 years ago, from a multi-model and multi-proxy synthesis.
«Fs», the fixed SST forcing, is a combination of the flux change at the top of (and throughout) the atmosphere and of the global
surface air temperature change after the forcing and with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice (SI) held fixed.
Very little happening in summer itself (as expected) as the melting ice surface and heat sensible heat gain in the mixed layer limit
the surface air temperature change.
Aerosols altered
the surface air temperature changes most in winter, even though effects on snow / ice and cloud cover were greatest during summer.
Surface air temperature change in winter and summer when using doubled CO2 sea surface temperatures as calculated in the GISS (DBL CO2) and GFDL (ALT) models circa early - mid-1980s.
Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming (
surface air temperature change, °C) for the scenarios B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom), and three time periods, 2011 to 2030 (left), 2046 to 2065 (middle) and 2080 to 2099 (right).