Most of the heat being trapped at the Earth's
surface by human greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed by the oceans.
Not exact matches
There are also concerns that oceans, which currently absorb more than 90 percent of the extra heat being trapped
by human greenhouse gas emissions, could eventually release some of that back to the
surface, speeding up the
surface temperature rise.
In the entirely subjective opinion of a particular group of IPCC authors, it's «extremely likely» (95 % certain) that «more than half of the observed increase in global average
surface temperature from 1951 to 2010» was caused
by human - generated
greenhouse gas emissions (see the bottom of p. 13 here).
Degradation of near -
surface permafrost (perennially frozen ground) caused
by modern climate change is adversely affecting
human infrastructure, altering Arctic ecosystem structure and function, changing the
surface energy balance, and has the potential to dramatically impact Arctic hydrological processes and increase
greenhouse gas emissions.
Thus it is entirely unsurprising that these short - term effects all aligning in the cooling direction in recent years have offset much of the
surface warming caused
by human greenhouse gas emissions.
«Climate science» as it is used
by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's
surface and atmosphere; (2)
Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising
greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level
by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2
emissions (reducing
emissions in 2050
by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm
by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2
emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
Many of the changes in land -
surface temperature can be explained
by a combination of volcanoes and a proxy for
human greenhouse gas emissions.
If we add in the warming effects of the other long - lived
greenhouse gases, the best estimate rises to 1.22 °C
surface warming caused
by human emissions (we've only observed ~ 0.8 °C warming because much of that has been offset
by human aerosol
emissions).