Global average temperature The mean surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000
surface temperature observation stations and sea surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and data buoys.
So the issues are the same as
surface temperature observation versus naive projections of the near - future forcings.
Surface temperature observations become sparser going back further in time, however, and the most widely used datasets only go back to 1880 or 1850.
The number of sea
surface temperature observations in ICOADS has increased due to recent digitization by NCEI.
Unlike the satellite temperature record, where only a few satellites are measuring temperatures at any given point of time, there is a large amount of redundancy in
surface temperature observations, with multiple
Forster and Gregory (2006) estimate ECS based on radiation budget data from the ERBE combined with
surface temperature observations based on a regression approach, using the observation that there was little change in aerosol forcing over that time.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in global - mean
surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Most proxy - only reconstructions show the mid-20th century (not late) to be the warmest period — which we know, according to
surface temperature observations, is incorrect.
This is due at least in part to a lack of
surface temperature observations in large parts of the Arctic where warming is occurring most rapidly.
According to that chart of actual satellite and
surface temperature observations vs. what was predicted by 90 different climate models, 95 percent of models overestimated... C3: Climate Model — Charts / Graphs C3 Headlines» climate - model - chartsgraphs
So, in looking at the chart, I note that the orange line (HadISST) is based on sea -
surface temperature observations, while the three other lines are (various GISS - E2 - R runs) are land - and - sea model outputs.
The real issue is the growing divergence between climate model projections and
the surface temperature observations, illustrated in this diagram by Ed Hawkins:
This agreement is accomplished through each modeling group selecting the forcing data set that produces the best agreement with observations, along with model kludges that include adjusting the aerosol forcing to produce good agreement with
the surface temperature observations.
# 1: Historical
surface temperature observations over since the middle of the 20th century show a clear signal of increasing surface temperatures.
To begin with # 1, terms like «
surface temperature observations» and» increasing surface temperatures» create an impression that you might be talking about increasing in all individual temperature records.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental thermometer - based land
surface temperature observations, such as satellite - derived temperature trend estimates over land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
«Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea
surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1.
Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea -
surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850, part 1: measurement and sampling uncertainties
In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in global - mean
surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Section 9.4.1.3 assesses the variability of near
surface temperature observations and simulations.
Location of
surface temperature observations.
The number of sea
surface temperature observations in ICOADS has increased due to recent digitization by NCEI.
Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea -
surface temperature observations since 1850 part 1: measurement and sampling errors.
[3a] Kennedy, J., R. Smith, and N. Rayner (2011a), Using AATSR data to assess the quality of in situ sea
surface temperature observations for climate studies, Remote Sens. Environ.
There have been a number of new papers that use recent atmospheric, ocean, and
surface temperature observations to argue that climate sensitivity may be lower than previously estimated (e.g. closer to 2 C than 4 C).
The evidence from
surface temperature observations is strong: The observed warming is highly significant relative to estimates of internal climate variability which, while obtained from models, are consistent with estimates obtained from both instrumental data and palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Climate models typically do not use any observational climate data such as
surface temperature observations.
Science 2007) we take a much simpler approach — using only sea -
surface temperature observations — to drive the ocean towards the observed state.
When corrected, the range of likely warming based on
surface temperature observations is in line with earlier estimates, despite the recent slowdown.
For each trip the mean difference (trip bias), using
the surface temperature observations for the reference, and the standard deviation of the differences were computed.
The agreement between 20th century global
surface temperature observations and simulations with natural plus anthropogenic forcing provides the primary evidence to support this conclusion.
Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found Earth is likely to experience roughly 20 percent more warming than estimates that were largely based on
surface temperature observations during the past 150 years.
There are several problems with using the historic
surface temperature observations.
Not exact matches
NOAA's Coral Reef Watch uses satellite
observations of sea
surface temperatures and modeling to monitor and forecast when water
temperatures rise enough to cause bleaching.
But
observations of CMEs on and near the sun — whose
surface temperature is about 5,500 degrees Celsius — are extremely difficult to accomplish.
Rutgers University scientist Georgiy Stenchikov worked with Lioy and others to create the most up - to - date air contaminant model, using data about the region's wind,
temperature, and humidity to supplement
surface and space - based
observations.
According to their
observations, sea
surface temperatures in the Atlantic can be up to 1.5 °C warmer in the Gulf Stream region during the positive phase of the AMO compared to the negative, colder phase.
By measuring the
surface temperature of a Kuiper Belt object, and combining this with optical
observations, its
surface reflectivity and hence its diameter can be determined accurately.
NASA's analyses incorporate
surface temperature measurements from 6,300 weather stations, ship - and buoy - based
observations of sea
surface temperatures, and
temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations.
Materials known to exist at Pluto's
surface from ground - based spectroscopic
observations include highly volatile cryogenic ices of N2 and CO, along with somewhat less volatile CH4 ice, as well as H2O and C2H6 ices and more complex tholins that are inert at Pluto
surface temperatures.
Taking
observations from twin telescopes mounted on the noses of the planes, Caspi will capture the clearest images of the Sun's outer atmosphere — the corona — to date and the first - ever thermal images of Mercury, revealing how
temperature varies across the planet's
surface.
Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and sea
surface temperature reconstruction based on historical
observations (1880 - 1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021 - 2036.
Instrumental
observations over the past 157 years show that
temperatures at the
surface have risen globally, with important regional variations.
The most recent
observations of sea
surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean (top) and how different those
temperatures are from normal (bottom).
We argue that KELT - 18b's high
temperature and low
surface gravity, which yield an estimated ~ 600 km atmospheric scale height, combined with its hot, bright host make it an excellent candidate for
observations aimed at atmospheric characterization.
A very recent study by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed sea
surface temperatures off the US east coast in
observations and a suite of global warming runs with climate models.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite
observations show the sea
surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
This involves a combination of satellite
observations (when different satellites captured
temperatures in both morning and evening), the use of climate models to estimate how
temperatures change in the atmosphere over the course of the day, and using reanalysis data that incorporates readings from
surface observations, weather balloons and other instruments.
Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005: Intercomparison of near
surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP - 2 simulations, reanalyses and
observations.
However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near -
surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST
observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.