The number of sea
surface temperature observations in ICOADS has increased due to recent digitization by NCEI.
This is due at least in part to a lack of
surface temperature observations in large parts of the Arctic where warming is occurring most rapidly.
The number of sea
surface temperature observations in ICOADS has increased due to recent digitization by NCEI.
Not exact matches
According to their
observations, sea
surface temperatures in the Atlantic can be up to 1.5 °C warmer
in the Gulf Stream region during the positive phase of the AMO compared to the negative, colder phase.
Surface temperature observations become sparser going back further
in time, however, and the most widely used datasets only go back to 1880 or 1850.
Unlike the satellite
temperature record, where only a few satellites are measuring
temperatures at any given point of time, there is a large amount of redundancy
in surface temperature observations, with multiple
A very recent study by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed sea
surface temperatures off the US east coast
in observations and a suite of global warming runs with climate models.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite
observations show the sea
surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s
in all ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
This involves a combination of satellite
observations (when different satellites captured
temperatures in both morning and evening), the use of climate models to estimate how
temperatures change
in the atmosphere over the course of the day, and using reanalysis data that incorporates readings from
surface observations, weather balloons and other instruments.
Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005: Intercomparison of near
surface temperature and precipitation extremes
in AMIP - 2 simulations, reanalyses and
observations.
Forster and Gregory (2006) estimate ECS based on radiation budget data from the ERBE combined with
surface temperature observations based on a regression approach, using the
observation that there was little change
in aerosol forcing over that time.
Surface -
temperature information from
observation in thermal - infrared wavelengths is overlaid on a more detailed image from a visible - light
observation.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend
in global - mean
surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
And of course the new paper by Hausfather et al, that made quite a bit of news recently, documents how meticulously scientists work to eliminate bias
in sea
surface temperature data,
in this case arising from a changing proportion of ship versus buoy
observations.
Even the admirable Revkin doesn't get it quite right: On horizontal
surfaces,
observations and modeling show a role for melting
in both the baseline ablation and the sensitivity of ablation to precipitation and
temperature; melting is the dominant ablation mechanism on vertical ice cliffs; and though Kaser et al find «no evidence» about rising
temperatures, it is only because the
in situ studies don't cover a long enough period to detect trends.
While land
surface observations go back hundreds of years
in a few places, data of sufficient coverage for estimating global
temperature have been available only since the end of the 19th century.
This was one of the motivations for our study out this week
in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the global - average
surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown
in warming seen
in the
observations during 2001 - 2013.
However, it is generally not possible to «tune» the models to fit very specific bits of the
surface data and the evidence for that is the remaining (significant) offsets
in average
surface temperatures in the
observations and the models.
Observations of the humidity
in the upper troposphere and its relation with sea
surface temperature in areas of deep convection point to an overall positive climate feedback by water vapour
in the upper troposphere, which is inconsistent with the Iris effect.
The reanalyses are closely tied to the measurements at most locations where
observations — such as 2 - meter
temperature, T (2m), or
surface pressure — are provided and used
in the data assimilation.
A lot of the
observation based estimates are likely biased low, as outlined
in the Ringberg report just due to assumptions of linearity
in the evolution of
surface temperature in response to some given radiative nudge on the system.
The
observations from the Laptev Sea
in 2007 indicate that the bottom water
temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3 C compared to the long - term mean as a consequence of the unusually high summertime
surface water
temperatures.
Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen
in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite record (1979 - 2012), both the
surface and satellite
observations produce linear
temperature trends which are below... Climate Change Is Real.
So,
in looking at the chart, I note that the orange line (HadISST) is based on sea -
surface temperature observations, while the three other lines are (various GISS - E2 - R runs) are land - and - sea model outputs.
They found that, although the aerosol direct effect or an increase
in continental cloud albedo could contribute to damp the
surface temperature diurnal cycle, only an increase
in continental cloud cover would be consistent with
observations (Karl et al., 1993).
The hottest topic
in climate research is the
observation that global average
surface temperature, as well as satellite
observations of
temperatures in the atmosphere, has shown little or no warming during the 21st century.
The evidence is «equivocal» because it does not agree with limited land based
observation of cloud — something that may be a little shortsighted as these changes seem significantly to be associated with sea
surface temperature in the tropics and the influences of the northern and southern annular modes.
However, models would need to underestimate variability by factors of over two
in their standard deviation to nullify detection of greenhouse gases
in near -
surface temperature data (Tett et al., 2002), which appears unlikely given the quality of agreement between models and
observations at global and continental scales (Figures 9.7 and 9.8) and agreement with inferences on
temperature variability from NH
temperature reconstructions of the last millennium.
This essay is an attempt to link real world
observations (the failure of
surface temperatures to rise
in tandem with atmospheric CO2) to basic physics and thereby show why the radiative characteristics of Greenhouse Gases can not increase the
surface temperature of a planet when atmospheric mass, the strength of the gravitational field and the power of insolation at the top of the atmosphere remain the same.
However, detection and attribution analyses based on climate simulations that include these forcings, (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b), continue to detect a significant anthropogenic influence
in 20th - century
temperature observations even though the near -
surface patterns of response to black carbon aerosols and sulphate aerosols could be so similar at large spatial scales (although opposite
in sign) that detection analyses may be unable to distinguish between them (Jones et al., 2005).
if my conclusions were supported by
observations of the highest
surface temperatures on Earth occurring
in places with the least supposed GHGs, and even higher
temperatures on the Moon with even less GHG's, I would summarily dismiss claims of a GHE.
Senator and presidential candidate Ted Cruz recently organized a Senate hearing on the
temperature record
in which he called upon carefully selected witnesses to testify that calculations of
temperature made by satellite
observations of the upper atmosphere are superior to measurements made by thermometers at the Earth's
surface.
Direct,
in situ
observation of
temperature blended with satellite infrared for sea
surfaces temperature.
If only GHG forcing is used, without aerosols, the
surface temperature in the last decade or so is about 0.3 - 0.4 C higher than
observations; adding
in aerosols has a cooling effect of about 0.3 - 0.4 C (and so cancelling out a portion of the GHG warming), providing a fairly good match between the climate model simulations and the
observations.
Variations
in global - mean
temperature are inferred from three different sets of measurements:
surface observations, satellite
observations, and radiosonde
observations.
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of
temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes
in global
temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases
in the recent global
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based
observations in sea
surface temperature trends
surface temperature trends»
The data used
in estimating the Levitus et al. (2005a) ocean
temperature fields (for the above heat content estimates) do not include sea
surface temperature (SST)
observations, which are discussed
in Chapter 3.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling
Observations of Global
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences
in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's
surface is undoubtedly real, and
surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
Christy said his approach, which relies on
observations from satellites and balloons, is more systematic and global than the estimates provided
in the
surface -
temperature studies.
The
observation, which connects Arctic stratospheric ozone and variation
in winds and sea -
surface temperatures in the tropics, could help forecasters better understand what's going on.
The meeting will mainly cover the following themes, but can include other topics related to understanding and modelling the atmosphere: ●
Surface drag and momentum transport: orographic drag, convective momentum transport ● Processes relevant for polar prediction: stable boundary layers, mixed - phase clouds ● Shallow and deep convection: stochasticity, scale - awareness, organization, grey zone issues ● Clouds and circulation feedbacks: boundary - layer clouds, CFMIP, cirrus ● Microphysics and aerosol - cloud interactions: microphysical
observations, parameterization, process studies on aerosol - cloud interactions ● Radiation: circulation coupling; interaction between radiation and clouds ● Land - atmosphere interactions: Role of land processes (snow, soil moisture, soil
temperature, and vegetation)
in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction ● Physics - dynamics coupling: numerical methods, scale - separation and grey - zone, thermodynamic consistency ● Next generation model development: the challenge of exascale, dynamical core developments, regional refinement, super-parametrization ● High Impact and Extreme Weather: role of convective scale models; ensembles; relevant challenges for model development
The real issue is the growing divergence between climate model projections and the
surface temperature observations, illustrated
in this diagram by Ed Hawkins:
It shows up well
in their Figure 1a about which they state ``... you can see how well the POGA H global average
surface temperature matches the
observations...» It matches well the phony eighties and nineties and would be off the mark if the real
temperatures were substituted.
The proposition to be proved (# 7) is assumed
in premise # 3 by virtue of kludging of the model parameters and the aerosol forcing to agree with the 20th century
observations of
surface temperature.
One dynamically downscaled IPCC simulation (WRF - MPI - ECHAM5) has a robust representation of Pacific sea
surface temperature variability
in the future projection period up to 2040, but the relationship to enhancement of precipitation extremes is not as clear as
in observations.
Confidence
in premises 1 - 6 is enhanced by the agreement between the simulations and
observations of the 20th century
surface temperature and the distinct signals produced by the various forcing mechanisms.
To begin with # 1, terms like «
surface temperature observations» and» increasing
surface temperatures» create an impression that you might be talking about increasing
in all individual
temperature records.
Figure 2: Gillett et al. time series of global mean near -
surface air
temperature anomalies
in observations and simulations of CanESM2.
Combine the satellite trend with the
surface observations and the umpteen non-
temperature based records that reflect
temperature change (from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent
in spring & fall to sea level rise to stratospheric temps) and the evidence for recent gradual warming is, well, unequivocal.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental thermometer - based land
surface temperature observations, such as satellite - derived
temperature trend estimates over land areas
in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.