We estimate that the ACRIM upward trend might have minimally contributed ∼ 10 — 30 % of the global
surface temperature warming over the period 1980 — 2002.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some of the slowed
surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play as well, such as human aerosol emissions.
Not exact matches
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled
over warming trends in ocean
surface temperatures for nearly 20 years.
Warm sea
surface temperature anomalies persist off to W and SW of San Diego, but are smaller than in previous weeks
over the past month.
Schmidt's rough estimate, which he posted on Twitter, is based on the extraordinary and unprecedented
warming over the past 12 months, during which time global
surface temperatures have shot past the 1 °C above pre-industrial level.
The most important of these was an apparent mismatch between the instrumental
surface temperature record (which showed significant
warming over recent decades, consistent with a human impact) and the balloon and satellite atmospheric records (which showed little of the expected
warming).
And a third found that climate - induced sea -
surface temperature anomalies
over the northeast Pacific were driving storms (and moisture) away from California, but the
warming also caused increased humidity — two competing factors that may produce no net effect.
The Michigan Tech chamber works differently due to cloud mixing between a hot and cold
surface, the same process that forms clouds or fog
over a lake on fall days when the water
temperature is
warmer than the air
temperature.
The Michigan Tech chamber creates clouds through cloud mixing between a hot and cold
surface — the same process that forms fog
over Portage Lake on fall days when the water
temperature is
warmer than the air
temperature.
Analyzing data collected
over a 20 - month period, scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight center in Greenbelt, Md., and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the number of cirrus clouds above the Pacific Ocean declines with
warmer sea
surface temperatures.
Warmer than average
temperatures were evident
over most of the global land
surface, except for parts of western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
Pielke, who said one issue ignored in the paper is that land
surface temperature measurements
over time show bigger
warming trends than measurements from higher up in a part of the atmosphere called the lower troposphere, and that still needs more explanation.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping global
surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than average — a small effect compared with long - term global
warming but a substantial one
over a decade.
«Sea
surface temperatures are getting
warmer over the North Atlantic, and are known to fluctuate every 60 to 80 years,» says Majeed.
Kevin Trenbeth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the study didn't account for changes in sea
surface temperatures, which are the main drivers of changes in the position of the rain belts (as is seen during an El Nino event, when Pacific
warming pushes the subtropical jet
over the Western U.S. southward).
When the AMO is in its positive phase and the sea
surface temperatures are
warmer, the study has shown that the main effect in winter is to promote the negative phase of the NAO which leads to «blocking» episodes
over the North Atlantic sector, allowing cold weather systems to exist
over the eastern US and Europe.
In late 2010 and early 2011, the continent Down Under received about twice its normal complement of rain, thanks in large part to unusually
warm sea -
surface temperatures just north of Australia and a particularly strong La Niña — in essence, combining a source of
warm humid air with the weather patterns that steered the moisture
over the continent where it condensed and fell as precipitation.
The effects of wind changes, which were found to potentially increase
temperatures in the Southern Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the
surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are
over and above the ocean
warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
Warmer than average
temperatures were evident
over most of the global land
surfaces, except for parts of the United States and western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
If this rapid
warming continues, it could mean the end of the so - called slowdown — the period
over the past decade or so when global
surface temperatures increased less rapidly than before.
However, for the globe as a whole,
surface air
temperatures over land have risen at about double the ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest
warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern Hemisphere.
Global
warming, the phenomenon of increasing average air
temperatures near the
surface of Earth
over...
The observed fact that
temperatures increases slower
over the oceans than
over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity of the ocean tries to hold back the
warming of the air
over the ocean and produces a delay at the
surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
Warming has occurred in both land and ocean domains, and in both sea
surface temperature (SST) and nighttime marine air
temperature over the oceans.
A study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in December found: «The
warmer (cooler) the Gulf of Mexico sea
surface temperatures, the more (less) hail and tornadoes occur during March — May
over the southern U.S.»
The former is likely to overestimate the true global
surface air
temperature trend (since the oceans do not
warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
global
warming The increase in Earth's
surface air
temperatures, on average, across the globe and
over decades.
Ocean
surfaces have
warmed considerably
over the last few years, and since oceans cover roughly tw0 - thirds of the globe's area, it is reasonable to examine how sea
surface temperature evolution has played into the short - term evolution of GMST.
The climate in most places has undergone minor changes
over the past 200 years, and the land - based
surface temperature record of the past 100 years exhibits
warming trends in many places.
Analysing
surface temperature data for 1979 - 2015, they link a
warm Arctic during March to colder - than - average
temperatures over northern regions of North America and dry conditions in central southern areas between March and May.
Cooling sea -
surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean — part of a natural
warm and cold cycle — may explain why global average
temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been
warming the planet.
While the planet's
surface temperatures over the past century have risen to unprecedented levels, records have shown a slowdown in the pace of
warming over the past 15 years.
Surface temperature changes
over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global
warming for
over a decade now.1, 2
Our results suggest that global
surface temperature may not increase
over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic
warming.»
Personally I got convinced that
warming was underway in the late 1990s after borehole measurements in rocks around the world, far away from civilization, showed unmistakable evidence of
warming over the past century... if you log
temperature down the hole, you find that extra heat has been seeping down from the
surface.
Soundbite version: «Global
warming is expected to increase sea
surface temperatures, create a thicker and
warmer ocean
surface layer, and increase the moisture in the atmosphere
over the oceans — all conditions that should lead to a general increase in hurricane intensity and maybe frequency.»
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average
surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to
warming is similar to the observed
warming over this period....
The problem here is that estimates of changes in sea
surface temperature and the depth of the
warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most recent findings are that flow rates vary
over a whole order of magnitude:
There are quite a few reasons to believe that the
surface temperature record — which shows a
warming of approximately 0.6 ° -0.8 °C
over the last century (depending on precisely how the
warming trend is defined)-- is essentially uncontaminated by the effects of urban growth and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.
One way to look at the climate is that global mean
surface temperatures have wandered up and down, to the left and the right,
warmer and cooler,
over the last thousand years, but have generally stayed a straight course, represented by the dashed line placed on the graph by the I.P.C.C. in 1990.
«We show that the climate
over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged
surface air
temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer - term
warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»
The record - breaking year of 2005 had below - average dust
over the Atlantic, very
warm sea
surface temperatures, and an unprecedented four hurricanes that reached category 5, the highest classification.
The 2007 IPCC report highlights
surface temperature projections for the period 2090 - 2099 under a business - as - ususal scenario that reveals +5 °C to +7 °C
warming warming of annually average
temperatures over much of Eurasia under an aggressive A2 scenario.
Given all the independent lines of evidence pointing to average
surface warming over the last few decades (satellite measurements, ocean
temperatures, sea - level rise, retreating glaciers, phenological changes, shifts in the ranges of
temperature - sensitive species), it is highly implausible that it would lead to more than very minor refinements to the current overall picture.
[1] Controversy has persisted
over the influence of urban
warming on reported large - scale
surface - air
temperature trends.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global
surface air
temperature trend (since the oceans do not
warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
Paul S (# 1)-- Since the Planck Response dominates
over positive feedback responses to
temperature, wouldn't a La Nina - like failure of
surface temperature to rise lead to an increase rather than a reduction in energy accumulation compared with accumulation during a
surface warming — presumably a small increase, so that the observed rise in ocean heat content would still be substantial?
The second, Keenlyside et al., (2008), forecast in contrast that «global
surface temperature may not increase
over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic
warming.»
Note also that the global
warming trend has not been terribly strong
over the last decade, so inferring a negative feedback to
surface temperature change is a bit odd to me, particularly when the feedback would have to be very sensitive.
As more optical thickness is added to a «new» band, it will gain greater control
over the
temperature profile, but eventually, the equilibrium for that band will shift towards a cold enough upper atmosphere and
warm enough lower atmosphere and
surface, such that farther increases will cool the upper atmosphere or just that portion near TOA while
warming the lower atmosphere and
surface — until the optical thickness is so large (relative to other bands) that the band loses influence (except at TOA) and has little farther effect (except at TOA).