Sentences with phrase «surface warming trend»

The original 1st edition summary contained the comment that «models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 to 15 years».

Their key finding - the contribution of each effect to the observed global surface warming trends over the four periods in question - is shown in Figure 1.

Yes, the oceans are warming but these trends are 10 % to 20 % of the predicted surface warming trend of about 0.2 C per decade.

They make great play of the IPCC's acknowledgement that there has been a «reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 — 2012» (7), but somehow ignore the fact that the past decade is still the warmest in the instrumental record.

Steele, M., Ermold, W. & Zhang, J. Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years.

The CONUS surface warming trend proposed by the Watts paper appears to be inconsistent with the satellite observations, and overall global trends in raw data do not differ dramatically from those in the adjusted data.

But when we break the data into La Niña / El Niño / Neutral categories, or when we filter out their effects as Kevin C did, we see that the underlying global surface warming trend of approximately 0.16 °C per decade remains beneath the short - term noise.

Even if we focus exclusively on global surface temperatures, Cowtan & Way (2013) shows that when we account for temperatures across the entire globe (including the Arctic, which is the part of the planet warming fastest), the global surface warming trend for 1997 — 2015 is approximately 0.14 °C per decade.

Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang,» Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years», Geophys.

That this tendency does not continue suggests strongly that the surface warming trend is overstated.

Second, if we filter out some of those short - term (i.e. interannual) influences, as Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) did (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, volcanoes, and solar activity), once we reduce the noise, the global surface warming trend over the past decade does become statistically significant.

The paper applies the methodology of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), using the statistical technique of multiple regression to filter out the influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar and volcanic activity from the global surface temperature data, finding that when these short - term influences are removed, the IPCC projections accurately match the observed human - caused global surface warming trend (Figure 6).

On the explanation of the observed reduction in the surface warming trend over the period 1998 - 2012, Saudi Arabia strongly urged incorporating language from the Technical Summary on models overestimating the warming trend.

But to cause this «top - down warming,» the warming trends in the atmosphere would have to be more pronounced than surface warming trends, because much of the energy from atmospheric warming is lost into space and does not affect surface temperatures.

There have been several studies suggesting changes to the satellite data analysis, which would bring it more in line with what we expect as compared to the surface warming trend.

To its credit, the IPCC admits that «models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in the surface warming trend over the last 10 — 15 years.»

To summarize, contrary to the myth that the IPCC is alarmist, RFC12 shows that in reality the IPCC report has accurately projected the human - caused global surface warming trend over the past two decades, and has underestimated global mean sea level rise by approximately 60 %.

In short, the global climate models used in the IPCC reports have been very good at predicting the underlying human - caused global surface warming trend, beneath the short - term noise which will average out to zero over time.

Yet, while claiming increased certainty about manmade global warming, both reports essentially ignore the absence of any surface warming trend since about 1998.

What they say: «Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 — 15 years.»