It's safe to say bitcoin has produced a multi-layered economic black
swan event like no other and it's just getting started.
Not exact matches
While the black
swan events can temporarily hurt your principle, as we saw even with things
like 9 - 11, and LTCM, stock markets eventually recover their losses.
Like black
swans, black
swan events are rare.
«We found that most black
swan events were caused by things
like extreme climate or disease, and often an unexpected combination of factors,» Anderson says.
During the
event, I was gifted this beautiful feather
like dress by Black
Swan and it complemented my dress so I decided to wear it the rest of the night.
However, for those looking to both hedge a weaker dollar, hedge inflation AND benefit from the sporadic panic moves that occur when a Black
Swan event occurs in the Us
like a financial crisis or a terrorist attack, there are precious metals.
Unlikely ups and downs
like these are sometimes labeled «black
swan»
events.
Swan describe the circumstances around the
event like this:
What this shows first of all is that extreme heat waves,
like the ones mentioned, are not just «black
swans» — i.e. extremely rare
events that happened by «bad luck».
He wrote a terrific nonfiction bestseller last year, The Black
Swan — the title is his term for a totally unexpected, utterly game - changing
event,
like 9/11 — that explored the importance of what we falsely think we know.
But the even greater problem here is that if you're going to consider policy in terms of Black
Swans, i.e. low frequency
events, there will be no end to your mitigations, much
like in the UK at the moment there is no end to the form filling you have to do to satisfy the «health & safety» gurus.
It seems
like the best thing to do would be to measure the difference between the measurement of choice (daily high, presumably, since we're in the business of talking about black -
swan high - temperature
events this time of year) and the trend line rather than a flat baseline.
If one or several models predict Black
Swan events,
like unprecedented extended droughts in some region over the next century, that should not be ignored, but added as a possible scenario.
Having read all the comments carefully, I'd
like to make an attempt to clarify the «black
swan» theory and the
events that allegedly characterise it through the lens of Popperian epistemology.
I think a black
swan event is more
like the failure of the Fukushima nuclear plant, where a number of unlikely
events had to conflate (earthquake + tsumani + failure of the surge wall + backup generators in the basement) to cause — in this case — a disaster.