As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal
system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.
The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal
system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.
Not exact matches
Mr. Carson has suggested in his more discursive and less technical paragraphs that «
variability» and «change» are
so endemic to all such
systems that the very notion of a «background» or secular change in such a
system is inherently specious.
Even the
so - called - and much misunderstood - uncertainty principle, and quantum physics as a whole, work according to precise levels of mathematically expressible
variability within a defined
system.
In humans, Dscam plays a role in the developing heart, but the gene lacks the incredible
variability seen in insects and
so its exact role in setting up the nervous
system is unclear.
«My view on this is that the research needs to broaden out to have more of a focus on
variability more generally
so that a) we can predict the next few years better b) we can refine our estimates of the sensitivity of the climate
system to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.»
The continued swings in the Arctic Oscillation can make it difficult for climate scientists to determine how sea ice loss is altering winter weather, since there is
so much natural
variability in the
system in the first place.
There's relaxation things like heart rate
variability training, like the energy medicine that you've done, like reducing stress from craniosacral things, getting more sleep and
so what you found is you found that you manage your stress levels and if the stress gets out of hand, the immune
system starts to attack itself.
The very very last thing that I add in and sometimes it can be a good 12 - 15 weeks before I add in this component is chronic competitive motion where it's okay, we're actually going out to go on a bike ride or swim or run or something that is metabolic conditioning roadwork because that's the stuff in someone that is overtrained who often times has their parasympathetic nervous
system really really beat up you know, if you test their heart rate
variability, the number called there high frequency is really really consistently low you know usually because there are triathletes or marathoners that's more often I'm dealing with those people with adrenal fatigue than I am with like a cross fitter who's kind of an opposite sympathetic nervous
system fatigue issue but with those parasympathetic nervous fatigue, the last thing we add back in is the swimming and the biking and the running because it's important to realize that when you're trying to recover from adrenal fatigue or overtraining, even if you're doing like an easy swim or an easy bike ride or an easy run, if you're a triathlete or a marathoner or a swimmer or a cyclist, those easy sessions send a message to your body that you're training, that you're running from a lion and you still get that hormonal depletion and it's
so easy for you to just turn into a depletion session and
so that's the very very last thing that I'll add back in
so that's kinda like the crow's eye view of you know, the type of things that I'll implement in a program for overtraining recovery, you know and you know, this is something that people hire me to walk them through.
Your nervous
system can respond to mechanical stimulation,
so when you're doing, say, the warrior pose and breathing deep, you're rousing your vagus nerve which sends signals to your heart to optimize the spacing between your heart beat or the heart rate
variability which is cool.
So as you increase the temperature of a
system that is defined by a number of different states separated by different energies (a climate
system, or perhaps a protein whose configuration in solution may be characterized by a set of fluctuations around the sort of structure one might observe in a crystal), you not only increase the
variability by populating more states [*], but the distribution of sub-states shifts towards those that are favoured at higher temperature.
So the thousands of papers on internal
variability of the climate
system were apparently written by Martian bloggers and not climate scientists?
Let's assume these studies somehow greatly underestimated natural
variability in the climate
system,
so that the «signal» of anthropogenic climate change has not yet emerged from the «noise» of natural variations (i.e., the above - cited «discernible human influence» had not been detected after all).
So with this reasoning, I have convinced myself that the initial conditions and short term
variability of the ocean / atmosphere may well be very important in influencing the ultimate longer term trajectory of the climate
system.
So what if all of the recognized periodic oscillations that comprise a whole laundry list of acronyms supposed to be primary, but unpredictable internal forcings of the natural
variability, were but the secondary result of the interactions of the sun with the rest of the solar
system, topped off with a local tidal focus created by the moon?
Added CO2 really should not have had any noticeable impact at the South Pole due to altitude and average temperatures
so that would indicate internal
variability that may have been forced in the more distant past or just natural
variability associated with a big a $ $
system.
Many suggest solar
variability for that aspect of the climate
system but as we all know Leif Svalgaard is dismissive of that
so what are we left with?
It implies also that warming in the 20th century was to a greater or lesser extent the result of internal
variability in the complex, dynamic climate
system, that non-warming may continue for another decade or
so and that subsequent cooling is indeed possible.
If it were not
so then climate would be very much more stable than it is with a virtually fixed latitudinal position for the air circulation
systems and climate variation being limited only to a basic level of chaotic
variability.
It takes about 20 years to evaluate because there is
so much unforced
variability in the
system which we can't predict — the chaotic component of the climate
system — which is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically.
The data and the statistical analysis does not provide the evidence that the
so called «pause», a time period with a lower trend estimate than the longer - term trend estimate, was more than just a short - term fluctuation around the median warming trend, mostly due to short - term unforced internal
variability in the Earth
system (and some contribution from decreasing solar activity and increased reflecting aerosols in the atmosphere, counteracting the increased greenhose gas forcing to some degree), like the «acceleration» over the 16 - year period from 1992 to 2007 (e.g., UAH trend: 0.296 + / - 0.213 (2 sigma) deg.
That is obviously not happening
so internal
system variability is not enough on it's own whether you acknowledge that or not.
So really forced = external and unforced = internal both terms relative to a specific
system, but either is «natural
variability» not driven by human activity.
«Using a probabilistic setup of a reduced complexity model and an ensemble of an Earth
System Model, we showed that unforced climate
variability is important in the estimation of the climate sensitivity, in particular when estimating the most likely value, and more
so for the equilibrium than for the transient response.
But what is mostly relevant is that
so long as the surface layer doesn't warm, the TOA imbalance remains uncompensated and the heat keeps flowing into the
system until, eventually, internal
variability will not favor deep layer warming over surface layer warming anymore.
There's also a lot of
variability in storage,
so that will impact how the
systems shake out.