The other aspect discussed in the paper is the importance of dealing with
systematic errors in the data sets.
Not exact matches
Until now, studies that challenged the existence of Planet Nine using the
data available for these trans - Neptunian objects argued that there had been
systematic errors linked to the orientations of the orbits (defined by three angles), due to the way
in which the observations had been made.
Unless large
systematic errors can be identified for all
data sets, one must conclude that no warming is occurring
in the troposphere at tropical latitudes.
The
errors in the radiosonde
data are
systematic, not random.
Since many meteorological stations are located
in or near large cities, these «urban heat islands» might introduce a spurious trend into temperature records.3 This is the most serious possible source of
systematic error to have been identified
in land - based
data.
The dramatic increase
in use of Airports (that are known to be warming) as percent of
data introduces another
systematic error term.
As Fred wrote, even large
systematic errors do not matter for the temporal change, if the
error remains the same
in all
data.
«What is needed is that there are no major but unknown
systematic changes
in, how the
data is collected... Independent
errors cancel out well and their size can be estimated from the
data, while
systematic errors may remain a significant problem, whose size is difficult to estimate».
When an anomaly calculated using normal means and
data that are contaminated with
systematic error, the
error in the anomaly is (+ / --RRB- sqrt -LSB-(
error in normal) ^ 2 + (
error in the measurement) ^ 2].
Further than that, though, it was straightforward to take McCrae's
data for Cape Cod and Florida
in his Table X, replot it, and determine the methodological point scatter due to
systematic error.
Laboratory precipitation of aragonite: the residuals from the linear fit to plotted T: dO18
data digitized from Figure 2 yielded a
systematic 1 - sigma
error =
in temperature (+ / --RRB- 1.1 C.
Laboratory precipitation of calcite: the residuals from the linear fit to plotted T: dO18
data from Table 1 yielded a
systematic 1 - sigma
error in temperature = (+ / --RRB- 2.2 C.
Incidentally it is evident from this that Newton «fudged» his reported observations to fit his theory of deriving the law of universal gravitation from Kepler's
data reduction, but Newton couldn't have known that the indeterminate
errors of observation propagated
in a
systematic was
For the radiosonde
data to be rejected you would need to show that there is a
systematic error in the temperatures measured near the tropopause
in the direction of a cold bias
in that region but no other.
General Introduction Two Main Goals Identifying Patterns
in Time Series
Data Systematic pattern and random noise Two general aspects of time series patterns Trend Analysis Analysis of Seasonality ARIMA (Box & Jenkins) and Autocorrelations General Introduction Two Common Processes ARIMA Methodology Identification Phase Parameter Estimation Evaluation of the Model Interrupted Time Series Exponential Smoothing General Introduction Simple Exponential Smoothing Choosing the Best Value for Parameter a (alpha) Indices of Lack of Fit (
Error) Seasonal and Non-seasonal Models With or Without Trend Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example
Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering
Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the
Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity
in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT
in Time Series
Hamill T. M. (July 2017): Changes
in the
Systematic Errors of Global Reforecasts due to an Evolving
Data Assimilation System.
Worst of all, temperature change still appears to reported as if all the uncertainty arises from scatter
in the raw
data and none from
systematic errors that could arise from processing the
data.
If
systematic errors in their model global climate can be shown, that would indicate a problem, but none have been specifically mentioned by David Young or others, so it makes it hard to answer except
in general terms, like validation with plenty of global
data has been done on GCMs.
If not, then
in terms of
systematic error, a per day uncertainty
in a physical quantity (0.2 C per reading) of a physically unique
data point can not be reduced to a physical uncertainty of 0.03 C merely by taking a mean of the points.
[Response: The difference is
in the corrections to the XBT
data, which is obviously part of the
systematic error.
Gavin said, «The difference is
in the corrections to the XBT
data, which is obviosly part of the
systematic error.
Unfortunately, one always has to have a measure of the «true» value — the true air temperature
in this case —
in order to evaluate the
systematic error hidden
in the station sensor temperature
data.