Except the BNP of course as the inherent
tactical voting in AV will keep them out permanently.
There was evidence of
tactical voting in some seats - Labour held threatened London seats Islington South and Westminster North by increasing its share of the vote at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
He saw his vote drop by 18 % as the Conservative chris Davies took the seat, with Labour also well up as the tradition of
tactical voting in Brecon and Radnorshire broke down.
Traditional
tactical voting in our first - past - the - post system involves supporters of parties coming third or lower in their constituency trying to better influence the outcome by voting for one of the top two candidates.
It has been reported that David Cameron called for
tactical voting in The Sunday Times today (e.g. here and here).
Faced with a surge of SNP support that threatens to have a decisive impact on the makeup of the next government, Scotland - always a part of the UK ripe for this sort of thing - has seen an outbreak of
tactical voting in recent weeks.
A secretive group is beginning campaigning in Scotland this week with a simple mission: stopping the SNP by encouraging
tactical voting in the 2015 general election.
With 4,770 Liberal Democrat votes «wasted», we are working to secure
a tactical vote in order to gain the seat.
Not exact matches
The problem with the second bullet point is that it's a good idea
in theory but not usable
in practice for two different reasons: (1) various cognitive biases would counteract your education from working when populist politically aligns with someone; (2) and conscious
tactical choices would ensure that even those who are able to work around cognitive biases would still
vote for that populist if they are aligned.
More broadly, it means the possibility always exists that it's
in a voter's interest to
vote in a way that doesn't reflect their true preferences;
in other words,
tactical voting is always a factor
in elections.
tactical political reasons (progressive atheists aren't likely to
vote for a Republican even if he's an atheist so no
votes to be picked up there; a far smaller # of people who are conservative atheists similarly wouldn't require politician to be atheist to
vote for him
in the first place; and non-atheists wouldn't be more likely to
vote for an atheist over his professed lack of belief and may be more likely to NOT
vote for the person if they are deeply religious).
Possibly one of the last seats to come
in is also one of the test cases for the progressive
tactical voting.
And
in Scotland, which has a greater tradition of
tactical voting, the likelihood is that proportion will be much higher — especially if groups like Scotland's Big Voice have an impact.
The writing was on the wall for the chief secretary to the Treasury, who even with help from some
tactical voting unionists just wasn't able to cobble together anything like the support he needed to stay
in Westminster.
The group has around 2,000 supporters on Facebook and says it is planning to begin door - knocking
in seats where it thinks
tactical voting could make a difference.
A secretive group is beginning campaigning
in Scotland this week with a simple mission: stopping the SNP by encouraging
tactical voting.
We are hoping our
tactical voting wheel will be effective
in the vast majority of seats.
In areas where there was a Yes
vote tactical voting is unlikely to work but we still encourage it.
Also keep
in mind that primaries (especially closed primaries where only party supporters can
vote) have a
tactical component.
In 2010, patterns of
tactical voting which had built up over twenty years helped both parties retain enough marginals to deny David Cameron a majority.
Such a push for
tactical voting shows the change
in Scot politics.
Nonetheless, as a
tactical device it was highly successful - certainly many of the primary voters will now feel invested
in the candidate and
vote for her again at the general election.
The problem for Clegg is that this almost certainly depended on
tactical voting, which was a major factor
in the Liberal Democrats» original 1997 victory
in Hallam.
By contrast Polly Toynbee
in the Guardian on Thursday made a well argued case for classic anti-Tory
tactical voting by Green and Labour supporters.
These polls typically do not show much sign of switching between general and constituency specific
vote intention, except
in Liberal Democrat seats where it is unclear whether the switching is
tactical or due to the personal popularity of the sitting MP.
Uncertainty leads to lots of mistakes:
tactical voting away from one of the top two candidates
in favour of a lower placed one.
Not only is there nothing
tactical in this, but the final claim is both false and contrary to the logic of traditional
tactical voting.
In both seats there appears to have been significant
tactical voting, with the Liberal Democrats likely benefiting from Conservative defectors.
[479] Writing after the election, Professor John Curtice said that
in only one constituency, (Edinburgh South); could it be said that
tactical voting succeeded
in defeating an SNP candidate.
For those living
in constituencies where Labour and the Liberal Democrats are expected to share first and second place,
tactical voting by Conservative supporters
in favour of the Lib Dems increases the chances that another Con - Lib coalition would have a majority.
But others may be
voting eg for a LibDem
in SW London or northern cities without thinking of it as a
tactical vote, and may rethink their options.
They took a smaller share of the
vote than at the previous election, but they managed to more than double their representation
in parliament, [31] winning 46 seats, [28] through
tactical voting and concentrating resources
in winnable seats.
A number of methods of
tactical or strategic
voting exist that can be used
in STV elections, but much less so than with First Past the Post.
That is why the left should not make concessions to the Lib - Lab strategy implied
in the call for «
tactical voting».
In a close three - way race, for example, a
tactical Labour supporter may be more confident that their candidate can beat the Liberal Democrat than the Conservative candidate, and therefore
vote for the Liberal Democrat to ensure he or she makes it into the final round.
Labour sources privately suggested that
tactical voting from Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters may have helped swing the
vote further
in their favour
in what was acknowledged to be a two horse race.
I've seen
in various places that the Gibbard — Satterthwaite theorem still applies to these other systems, and therefore they are also inescapably subject to
tactical voting, but I've also seen advocates say that G — S theorem likewise only applies to ranked systems, and that score
voting meets all the criteria when there are ≤ 3 candidates.
I want to talk about swings
in Glenrothes,
tactical voting trends and the balance of payments.
That's why Dr. Roger Mortimore from Ipsos MORI has said: «Under AV there is a real incentive for
tactical voting, because the order
in which candidates are eliminated affects the result».
Peter Kellner: YouGov's latest poll
in Scotland suggests that some Labour MPs, and possibly two Liberal Democrats, might be saved by
tactical voting (Comments: 271)
However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency polls
in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and
tactical voting is far higher for Lib Dem MPs, and when you ask a generic
voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually
vote in their own constituency.
But
tactical voting of the old - fashioned, not very organised kind - backing not your preferred party, but the one most likely to keep out the candidate you don't want - has been critical
in the last three elections.
I don't put much store
in opinion polls, but if true it would only indicate roughly what you would expect to happen at this point
in the parliament - 32 % isn't that much lower than Labour got
in the 2005 General Election and all it would suggest is that the Liberal Democrats are having a reversal -
tactical voting could see them holding onto many of their current seats, indeed it is even possible that if they got 17 % of the
vote that if it focused
in an area that they could actually end up with more seats, where the switches
in support are occuring is crucial - if they are focused then if the Conservative Party were to get 39 % then it might still result
in them getting fewer seats than Labour or
in extremis winning a 150 seat majority or so?
Because 30 % of those polled by ORB
in May said they were considering a
tactical vote to stop a hard Brexit — which might, variously, mean
voting for a Labour candidate who opposed it, a Green or a Lib Dem.
And the growing public distrust
in party manifestos was what enabled the
tactical voting sites to thrive.
The Lib Dems have always benefited from
tactical voting - although their supporters stopped supporting Labour against us by and large
in 2005.
Proponents of other
voting methods
in single - member districts argue that these would reduce the need for
tactical voting and reduce the spoiler effect.
Moving on there were some interesting bits of data about
tactical voting, particularly
in the first Populus poll, back
in November 2004, which was conducted
in 160 Conservative target seats and included some questions on
tactical voting behaviour.
In contrast to Lib Dem voters, when Labour voters in such seats were asked about tactical voting were still far more likely to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-vers
In contrast to Lib Dem voters, when Labour voters
in such seats were asked about tactical voting were still far more likely to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-vers
in such seats were asked about
tactical voting were still far more likely to
vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-versa.
While the scheme would retain the first - past - the - post principle, and still calls for
tactical voting, it would ensure a fairer distribution of seats
in relation to parties» shares of the
vote.