In 2010, patterns of
tactical voting which had built up over twenty years helped both parties retain enough marginals to deny David Cameron a majority.
Not exact matches
Separating such a
vote into two can lead to dependence on the ordering of the two
votes if the result of the first
vote is announced before the second (
which could lead to
tactical choices by the organizers), or to the possibility of very unappealing pairs of choices winning if the first result is kept secret.
And in Scotland,
which has a greater tradition of
tactical voting, the likelihood is that proportion will be much higher — especially if groups like Scotland's Big Voice have an impact.
The problem for Clegg is that this almost certainly depended on
tactical voting,
which was a major factor in the Liberal Democrats» original 1997 victory in Hallam.
Days later he pulled the plug on the Commons
vote and won an important
tactical battle
which left the PM embarrassed and weakened for a time.
If anti-Conservative
tactical voting takes place then this has the potential to reduce the Conservatives working majority to 73 seats
which I am sure Theresa May would still be very happy with!
That's why Dr. Roger Mortimore from Ipsos MORI has said: «Under AV there is a real incentive for
tactical voting, because the order in
which candidates are eliminated affects the result».
The third change is the tempering of an «anyone but the Tories» mood
which fuelled
tactical voting at the last three elections.
The other standard trackers all paint an equally bleak picture for the government, on the forced choice question (
which I always tend to think of our best indicator of
which way
tactical voting is likely to go next time round, given that there are no regular tracker questions that ask directly about it) the Conservatives now enjoy a 12 point lead over Labour, they have an 8 point lead as the party most likely to run the economy well, David Cameron has an 8 point lead as Best Prime Minister.
Because 30 % of those polled by ORB in May said they were considering a
tactical vote to stop a hard Brexit —
which might, variously, mean
voting for a Labour candidate who opposed it, a Green or a Lib Dem.
Moving on there were some interesting bits of data about
tactical voting, particularly in the first Populus poll, back in November 2004,
which was conducted in 160 Conservative target seats and included some questions on
tactical voting behaviour.
This
tactical voting also took place in Lib / Con marginals
which may have had the ironic effect of letting the Tories win.
Then, in 2020, there could be dozens of seats in
which the «wasted
vote» argument for sticking to the two big parties won't apply, and
tactical voting could help Ukip and the Greens.
It is purely the hard work of the Lib Dems locally
which enables this degree of
tactical voting to persist at the present time.
Both campaigns furthermore expended an awful amount of
tactical effort chasgin the second preferences of other candidates; indeed, the media speculation
which way these
votes would go was endless.
This is a somewhat artifical question of course, in real life people can and do
vote for parties other than the main two, but provides a useful pointer as to
which direction
tactical voting might work in come the next general election.
For example, instead of expressing their genuine order of preferences,
tactical voters will re-order their
votes so as to try to achieve the early elimination of candidates the second preferences of
which are likely to go to their favoured candidate and to keep in candidates whose voters are unlikely to have expressed second preferences.