Sentences with phrase «tail events increases»

If Spitznagel's thesis is correct that the frequency and magnitude of tail events increases with overvaluation, investors need to exercise caution given the extreme level of the equity q ratio.

Not exact matches

If a similar mean is employed, then the increase in 2 - sigma events on the one tail will exceed the decrease in 2 - sigma events on the opposing tail.

Imagine, say, a bell - shaped curve based on the null hypothesis that climate change is not happening (and not having an impact on increasing extreme weather events), and there is this really long tail out to infinity; and supposing we get an off - the - charts category 7 hurricane in January, we still can not attribute it or its extra intensity or unusual seasonality to climate change, even if there is only a one in kazillion chance it might occur without climate change having an effect — that is, it is way out there in the very tiny tail of this null hypothesis curve that fades out into infinity — the tail that says, afterall, anything's possible.

This is how I understand it (correct me if I am wrong): It's like with increasing GHGs in the atmosphere the dice are increasing loaded for such record - breaking events, but under the null hypothesis (that increasing GHGs have no effect) there is this very long long tail of possibility.

An increase in tail events might might arise from a change in the mean (asymmetric between the tails) or a change in the variance (symmetric between the tails).