Sentences with phrase «tail risk in»

In an interview, Dylan Ratigan told me that greedy bastards in the energy world are «masters» of transferring the long tail risk in their businesses to the public:

And that's the thing — as long as there are bear markets there will be active managers implementing strategies designed to reduce tail risk in portfolios.

Not exact matches

He believed in the potential long - tail profit, that selling the first - window rights would begin to mitigate the production risk that Dynamics would take — indeed, the biggest it had ever taken.

But we expect to be in a better place by mid 2013, as BofAML economists expect a bottoming in China growth, reduced tail risk from Europe, and a multi-stage fix to the Fiscal Cliff.»

Buying a property with an income suite may have an edge over the fixer - upper in the event the tail risk of a housing crash materializes.

The tail - end of this period saw rapidly rising inflation and interest rates, but it's worth noting that the risk premium hasn't always been quite so narrow (stocks were up 10.5 % per year in that time).

I stuck it out in a crazy business that has robbed me of any normal social life (constantly moving around the country), worked my tail off and risked it all and was fortunate enough to be in a good place at the right time and take advantage of an opportunity with every bit of energy I could muster.

Even so, I believe that it's essential to carry a significant safety net at present, and I'm also partial to tail - risk hedges that kick - in automatically as the market declines, rather than requiring the execution of sell orders.

As I've regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we're partial to a layer of tail - risk hedges, such as out - of - the - money index put options, given that a market decline on the order of even 5 % would almost certainly be sufficient to send our measures of market internals into a negative condition.

The main purpose behind holding these options is hedging a portfolio against significant negative movement in the value of US equities, commonly referred to as tail risk.

Other left - tail risks to our view include geopolitical disruptions, possible U.S. dollar strength or a complete breakdown in NAFTA negotiations that could dampen near - term sentiment for emerging markets (EM) assets.

But some other critics have in a sense taken the other side of this trade, contending that if anything the formula underestimates the potential liability of long - dated options by failing to adequately account for so - called tail risk — the prospect that the markets will collapse under the weight of, say, a giant housing bubble.

A tail risk can produce devastating financial crisis if it is concentrated in important financial institutions, such as banks and securities companies, who then must bear the brunt of the losses.

Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by forward - looking statements based on a number of factors, including, without limitation: (1) risks related to the consummation of the Merger, including the risks that (a) the Merger may not be consummated within the anticipated time period, or at all, (b) the parties may fail to obtain shareholder approval of the Merger Agreement, (c) the parties may fail to secure the termination or expiration of any waiting period applicable under the HSR Act, (d) other conditions to the consummation of the Merger under the Merger Agreement may not be satisfied, (e) all or part of Arby's financing may not become available, and (f) the significant limitations on remedies contained in the Merger Agreement may limit or entirely prevent BWW from specifically enforcing Arby's obligations under the Merger Agreement or recovering damages for any breach by Arby's; (2) the effects that any termination of the Merger Agreement may have on BWW or its business, including the risks that (a) BWW's stock price may decline significantly if the Merger is not completed, (b) the Merger Agreement may be terminated in circumstances requiring BWW to pay Arby's a termination fee of $ 74 million, or (c) the circumstances of the termination, including the possible imposition of a 12 - month tail period during which the termination fee could be payable upon certain subsequent transactions, may have a chilling effect on alternatives to the Merger; (3) the effects that the announcement or pendency of the Merger may have on BWW and its business, including the risks that as a result (a) BWW's business, operating results or stock price may suffer, (b) BWW's current plans and operations may be disrupted, (c) BWW's ability to retain or recruit key employees may be adversely affected, (d) BWW's business relationships (including, customers, franchisees and suppliers) may be adversely affected, or (e) BWW's management's or employees» attention may be diverted from other important matters; (4) the effect of limitations that the Merger Agreement places on BWW's ability to operate its business, return capital to shareholders or engage in alternative transactions; (5) the nature, cost and outcome of pending and future litigation and other legal proceedings, including any such proceedings related to the Merger and instituted against BWW and others; (6) the risk that the Merger and related transactions may involve unexpected costs, liabilities or delays; (7) other economic, business, competitive, legal, regulatory, and / or tax factors; and (8) other factors described under the heading «Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the risk that the Merger and related transactions may involve unexpected costs, liabilities or delays; (7) other economic, business, competitive, legal, regulatory, and / or tax factors; and (8) other factors described under the heading «Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the SEC.

In their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurementIn their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurementin this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurements.

The tail risk is more sobering: There is a 1 - in - 20 chance this metro region will experience more than 83 extremely hot days by century - end.

In its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investorIn its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investorin 2012, making it another difficult year for investors.

Looking at the tail risks, there is a 1 - in - 20 chance the Detroit area will experience more than 87 extremely hot days each year by the century's end.

Today's «Trends and Tail Risks» takes a look at the bond market, where investor confusion in this post-crisis world is perhaps the greatest.

In today's «Trends and Tail Risks» I review what the yield curve is saying now and what it means for the world of investing.

First, the tail risks (low - probability, high - impact events) in the global economy — a eurozone breakup, the US going over its fiscal cliff, a hard economic landing for China, a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation — are lower now than they were a year ago.

In this week's Trends and Tail Risks we examine the precedent of the 1985 — 1986 crude oil price collapse — and OPEC's role in it — to see how we may apply the lessons of the past to the futurIn this week's Trends and Tail Risks we examine the precedent of the 1985 — 1986 crude oil price collapse — and OPEC's role in it — to see how we may apply the lessons of the past to the futurin it — to see how we may apply the lessons of the past to the future.

Global Capitalism is trapped in its own Prisoner's Dilemma; forty four years after the end of the Bretton Woods System global central banks have manipulated the cost of risk in a competition of devaluation leading to a dangerous build up in debt and leverage, lower risk premiums, income disparity, and greater probability of tail events on both sides of the return distribution.

This week's Trends and Tail Risks is devoted to describing how we invest in bonds.

VaR and Stress Tests: The Impact of Fat - Tail Risk and Systemic Risk on Commercial Banks in Hong Kong and China

In this Part 1, first, we look at the tail of an asset return distribution and compress our knowledge on Value - at - Risk (VaR) to extract the essence required to understand why VaR - stuff is not the best card in our decIn this Part 1, first, we look at the tail of an asset return distribution and compress our knowledge on Value - at - Risk (VaR) to extract the essence required to understand why VaR - stuff is not the best card in our decin our deck.

As I've regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we're partial to a layer of tail - risk hedges.

The kids do grab him, pull his tail, haul him by his tail (usually I can tell this by hearing him yowling for help, which I then tell the 3 year old to let him go NOW or risk her dolls being put in time - out, which is a horrible punishment in her opinion...) and he has never scratched or bitten them.

However, the association of the telomere G - tail length with various risk factors in humans has not been clarified yet.

In patients with chronic cerebrovascular disease and comorbidities, a shortened telomere G - tail length was associated with age and Framingham risk score, which is an algorithm used to estimate the 10 - year cardiovascular risk of an individual.

Nevertheless, it provides initial evidence for the association of telomere G - tail length with aging, endothelial function, and ARWMCs in patients with vascular risk factors.

Showy ornaments used by the male of the species in competition for mates, such as the long tail of a peacock or shaggy mane of a lion, could indicate a species» risk of decline in a changing climate, according to a new study from Queen Mary University of London (QMUL).

Peter (voiced by James Corden) is playful and charming, and so driven to get his hands on the vegetables in the McGregor garden that it not only puts his family — which includes triplets Flopsy (voiced by Margot Robbie), Mopsy (voiced by Elizabeth Debicki) and Cotton - tail (voiced by Daisy Ridley), as well as cousin Benjamin (voiced by Matt Lucas)-- at risk, but jeopardizes the budding relationship between new neighbor Thomas McGregor (Domhnall Gleeson) and sweet animal lover Bea (Rose Byrne), who watches out for the rabbits.

Compressed valuations in agency mortgage - backed securities and the tail risk from the uncertain impact of Fed balance sheet normalization keep us neutral on the asset class.

«A deep MI pilot built around the core strengths of the MI industry, lender relationships, independent underwriting standards, and expertise in pricing long tailed credit risk, combined with Credit Risk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.&rarisk, combined with Credit Risk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.&raRisk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.»

Their greatest weakness was in not having a suitable understanding of the downstream, or long tail, risk of derivatives, particularly in the reference securities.

The authors find that the buy — write strategies» risk - adjusted performance was earned from a combination of a skewness premium, paid to the option writers for assuming the tail risk of potentially unlimited loss, and the reduction in volatility from the hedge of the buy - and - hold security's beta exposure.

The idea of finding assets that offer a large upside while minimizing the downside risk is embedded in said mantra: «Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much.»

In their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurementIn their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurementin this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurements.

The improvement in return results from the skewness premium received by the option writer in exchange for assuming large negative tail risk, which is a function of the preference - for - lottery hypothesis, likely a foundation of the low - volatility anomaly.

In part II, you were informed that value investing is a risk - averse strategy that seeks to identify undervalued assets — bargains — that offer margins of safety based on the Dhandho - mantra: «Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much.»

There are real risks that the paper doesn't deal with, especially tail risk, but it does point out that there is more diversification in trading strategies than in traditional asset classes.

Throughout the business cycle we are constantly updating our financial models to account for changes in the probability of tail risk events and other inefficiencies that might alter how our clients perceive risk.

In its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investorIn its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investorin 2012, making it another difficult year for investors.

In their May 2013 paper entitled «Volatility vs. Tail Risk: Which One is Compensated in Equity Funds?&raquIn their May 2013 paper entitled «Volatility vs. Tail Risk: Which One is Compensated in Equity Funds?&raquin Equity Funds?»

In the February 2013 draft of their paper entitled «Using Maximum Drawdowns to Capture Tail Risk», Wesley Gray and Jack Vogel investigate maximum drawdown (largest peak - to - trough loss over a time series of compounded returns) as a simple measure of tail risk missed by linear factor modTail Risk», Wesley Gray and Jack Vogel investigate maximum drawdown (largest peak - to - trough loss over a time series of compounded returns) as a simple measure of tail risk missed by linear factor modRisk», Wesley Gray and Jack Vogel investigate maximum drawdown (largest peak - to - trough loss over a time series of compounded returns) as a simple measure of tail risk missed by linear factor modtail risk missed by linear factor modrisk missed by linear factor models.

I guess I went into it with the idea that the current portfolio being so sensitive to market moves (beta significantly greater than 1 because of the large concentration in AIG, BAC warrants), I was willing to lose the entire cost of the hedge for the slight chance of major tail risk.

I'm not suggesting my portfolio's some absolute return tail - risk hedged uber - vehicle (though I'm not averse to all that, resources permitting), I really mean it in the old - fashioned sense (& purpose) of a hedge fund — I worry as much about preserving my wealth, as I do about increasing my wealth.

There's no longer any financial risk to the portfolio, the share price continues to trade at an NAV discount, our petites morts are beginning to accelerate, management's begun to return capital (unfortunately, they're neglecting to repurchase shares), the dollar rally adds a nice tail - wind, and a renewed decline in yields (10 yr UST's now at 1.74 %!)

Spitznagel is a specialist in tail risk, and so the most intriguing part of Spitznagel's papers is his demonstration of the utility of the equity q ratio in identifying «susceptibility to shifts from any extreme consensus» because «such shifts of extreme consensus are naturally among the predominant mechanics of stock market crashes.»