Sentences with phrase «tail risks»

* On an overall basis, the report states that while «global tail risks have diminished (meaning the risk of a systemic shock to the global financial system that could be caused by an event like a sovereign debt default), the global outlook is slightly weaker than projected in October».

Understanding tail risks — nightmarish scenarios — is vital.

Long - tail risks, not 1 SD risks.

Moreover, it helps to manage risk more effectively by protecting against infrequent or unlikely but consequential negative events, often referred to as «tail risks.»

Frank explains, «With market overvaluation induced by the current Fed policy and tail risks high, I think the price of the above - described call option is well below its intrinsic value.

These predictors span five categories: seven broad manager skills; four market timing skills; six systematic risks; four tail risks; and, five incentive metrics.

In its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investors.

Being long these names just exposes you to tail risks that really are best avoided.

Today's «Trends and Tail Risks» outlines what we think are Potash Corp's investment merits.

This week's Trends and Tail Risks is devoted to describing how we invest in bonds.

This week's Trends and Tail Risks outlines how valuation gives us confidence to see opportunity where others do not.

In this week's Trends and Tail Risks we examine the precedent of the 1985 — 1986 crude oil price collapse — and OPEC's role in it — to see how we may apply the lessons of the past to the future.

First, the tail risks (low - probability, high - impact events) in the global economy — a eurozone breakup, the US going over its fiscal cliff, a hard economic landing for China, a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation — are lower now than they were a year ago.

By LEWIS JOHNSON — Co-Chief Investment Officer May 31, 2017 I write «Trends and Tail Risks» to help explain our investment team's framework, and our investments, to our clients and friends.

Tail risks include market events that generally would have a small chance of occurring.

But I am keen to avoid tail risks of now being a low water mark for sterling and of the bond market unraveling a bit over next few years.

In today's «Trends and Tail Risks» I review what the yield curve is saying now and what it means for the world of investing.

Today's «Trends and Tail Risks» takes a look at the bond market, where investor confusion in this post-crisis world is perhaps the greatest.

Looking at the tail risks, there is a 1 - in - 20 chance the Detroit area will experience more than 87 extremely hot days each year by the century's end.

But we are even more attuned to the tail risks than we were and more attuned to the need to take action if we sense that the risks are building.

In its latest Daily Insights report, BCA Research emphasizes that the tail risks facing the global economy and financial markets will hang over markets in 2012, making it another difficult year for investors.

Housing bubbles create tail risks, leading Bubb and Krishnamurthy to conclude that imposing greater housing risks on securitizers will be an ineffective and even counterproductive approach to reducing overall «systemic risk» during bubbles.

As always, we debate potential «tail risks» associated with our views.

Other left - tail risks to our view include geopolitical disruptions, possible U.S. dollar strength or a complete breakdown in NAFTA negotiations that could dampen near - term sentiment for emerging markets (EM) assets.

We see volatility and dispersion rising to normalized levels as the Fed lifts rates and markets pay more attention to lurking tail risks.

When SPY's 20 - day realized volatility is above 20 %, the tail risks of overnight returns are about the same as those of close - to - close returns.

Most likely, this reflects central banks» aggressive liquidity injections, which have translated into an increasing conviction among investors that major tail risks have been indefinitely removed.

But we expect to be in a better place by mid 2013, as BofAML economists expect a bottoming in China growth, reduced tail risk from Europe, and a multi-stage fix to the Fiscal Cliff.»

For traders looking for volatility - based protection, the strategists recommend going long the SGI US Equity Tail Risk Index, which hedges long equity exposure.

But the ratings agency said widespread defaults remained a tail risk, or a potential scenario with only a small probability of occurring.

Buying a property with an income suite may have an edge over the fixer - upper in the event the tail risk of a housing crash materializes.

By contrast, just two officials forecast a funds rate below the median, suggesting the tail risk for markets is for higher, not lower, rates.

At the same time, some two out of three asset managers reckon a Chinese recession is the number one «tail risk» to global markets.

Trading short volatility via VIX - related ETFs is very popular nowadays but involves extreme tail risk.

BSWN VelocityShares VIX Tail Risk ETN LSVX VelocityShares VIX Variable Long / Short ETN XIVH

Markets that are trending higher tend to have less tail risk.

The Cambria Tail Risk ETF is an actively managed fund that holds mostly cash and treasuries while using the strategy of buying put options on the S&P 500 with the purpose of portfolio downside protection.

The right - tail risk is the possibility that the current bullish environment has more horsepower and stamina than we're forecasting, which could push valuations to even greater extremes.

The Janus Velocity Tail Risk Hedged Large Cap ETF (TRSK) and the Janus Velocity Volatility Hedged Large Cap ETF (SPXH) are set to see their last day of trading on March 20.

The main purpose behind holding these options is hedging a portfolio against significant negative movement in the value of US equities, commonly referred to as tail risk.

But some other critics have in a sense taken the other side of this trade, contending that if anything the formula underestimates the potential liability of long - dated options by failing to adequately account for so - called tail risk — the prospect that the markets will collapse under the weight of, say, a giant housing bubble.

If the Fed really wants to influence the choice, it has to introduce tail risk to cash hoarders, and this is inconsistent with a price level target placed by an credible Fed.

A tail risk can produce devastating financial crisis if it is concentrated in important financial institutions, such as banks and securities companies, who then must bear the brunt of the losses.

They point out an important feature of mortgage securitization: its «tail risk» — the risk that a loan will greatly underperform on its expectations.

After a bullish 2018, tail risk is back.

But even a diplomatic thaw is good for South Korean business — and will reduce the tail risk of a catastrophic conflict.

In their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurements.

VAR, sharpe ratio, Market Neutral - whatever that means, tail risk, black swans, Sortino ratio.

It appears subordinated bond investors were not charging enough for the tail risk being assumed.

The tail risk is more sobering: There is a 1 - in - 20 chance this metro region will experience more than 83 extremely hot days by century - end.