Sentences with phrase «tail risks of»

But I am keen to avoid tail risks of now being a low water mark for sterling and of the bond market unraveling a bit over next few years.

When SPY's 20 - day realized volatility is above 20 %, the tail risks of overnight returns are about the same as those of close - to - close returns.

Buying a property with an income suite may have an edge over the fixer - upper in the event the tail risk of a housing crash materializes.

But even a diplomatic thaw is good for South Korean business — and will reduce the tail risk of a catastrophic conflict.

«Markets are not priced appropriately for the downside tail risk of a possible «no» verdict,» she said with marvellous understatement.

The value of SKEW increases with the tail risk of S&P 500 returns.

As such, the government holds the tail risk of the mortgage market imploding already; why not make this insurance explicit, while also regulating and pricing it?

The authors find that the buy — write strategies» risk - adjusted performance was earned from a combination of a skewness premium, paid to the option writers for assuming the tail risk of potentially unlimited loss, and the reduction in volatility from the hedge of the buy - and - hold security's beta exposure.

Not exact matches

But those rose - tinted glasses can cloud investing decisions, leading savers to assume too much risk at the tail end of a bull market.

But the ratings agency said widespread defaults remained a tail risk, or a potential scenario with only a small probability of occurring.

The tail - end of this period saw rapidly rising inflation and interest rates, but it's worth noting that the risk premium hasn't always been quite so narrow (stocks were up 10.5 % per year in that time).

At the same time, some two out of three asset managers reckon a Chinese recession is the number one «tail risk» to global markets.

I stuck it out in a crazy business that has robbed me of any normal social life (constantly moving around the country), worked my tail off and risked it all and was fortunate enough to be in a good place at the right time and take advantage of an opportunity with every bit of energy I could muster.

Even so, I believe that it's essential to carry a significant safety net at present, and I'm also partial to tail - risk hedges that kick - in automatically as the market declines, rather than requiring the execution of sell orders.

The Cambria Tail Risk ETF is an actively managed fund that holds mostly cash and treasuries while using the strategy of buying put options on the S&P 500 with the purpose of portfolio downside protection.

As I've regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we're partial to a layer of tail - risk hedges, such as out - of - the - money index put options, given that a market decline on the order of even 5 % would almost certainly be sufficient to send our measures of market internals into a negative condition.

The Janus Velocity Tail Risk Hedged Large Cap ETF (TRSK) and the Janus Velocity Volatility Hedged Large Cap ETF (SPXH) are set to see their last day of trading on March 20.

That's a source of concern at present, and but it's enough to maintain a rather neutral immediate outlook provided that safety nets and tail - risk hedges are kept within several percent of current extremes.

The main purpose behind holding these options is hedging a portfolio against significant negative movement in the value of US equities, commonly referred to as tail risk.

But some other critics have in a sense taken the other side of this trade, contending that if anything the formula underestimates the potential liability of long - dated options by failing to adequately account for so - called tail risk — the prospect that the markets will collapse under the weight of, say, a giant housing bubble.

A tail risk can produce devastating financial crisis if it is concentrated in important financial institutions, such as banks and securities companies, who then must bear the brunt of the losses.

Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by forward - looking statements based on a number of factors, including, without limitation: (1) risks related to the consummation of the Merger, including the risks that (a) the Merger may not be consummated within the anticipated time period, or at all, (b) the parties may fail to obtain shareholder approval of the Merger Agreement, (c) the parties may fail to secure the termination or expiration of any waiting period applicable under the HSR Act, (d) other conditions to the consummation of the Merger under the Merger Agreement may not be satisfied, (e) all or part of Arby's financing may not become available, and (f) the significant limitations on remedies contained in the Merger Agreement may limit or entirely prevent BWW from specifically enforcing Arby's obligations under the Merger Agreement or recovering damages for any breach by Arby's; (2) the effects that any termination of the Merger Agreement may have on BWW or its business, including the risks that (a) BWW's stock price may decline significantly if the Merger is not completed, (b) the Merger Agreement may be terminated in circumstances requiring BWW to pay Arby's a termination fee of $ 74 million, or (c) the circumstances of the termination, including the possible imposition of a 12 - month tail period during which the termination fee could be payable upon certain subsequent transactions, may have a chilling effect on alternatives to the Merger; (3) the effects that the announcement or pendency of the Merger may have on BWW and its business, including the risks that as a result (a) BWW's business, operating results or stock price may suffer, (b) BWW's current plans and operations may be disrupted, (c) BWW's ability to retain or recruit key employees may be adversely affected, (d) BWW's business relationships (including, customers, franchisees and suppliers) may be adversely affected, or (e) BWW's management's or employees» attention may be diverted from other important matters; (4) the effect of limitations that the Merger Agreement places on BWW's ability to operate its business, return capital to shareholders or engage in alternative transactions; (5) the nature, cost and outcome of pending and future litigation and other legal proceedings, including any such proceedings related to the Merger and instituted against BWW and others; (6) the risk that the Merger and related transactions may involve unexpected costs, liabilities or delays; (7) other economic, business, competitive, legal, regulatory, and / or tax factors; and (8) other factors described under the heading «Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the risk that the Merger and related transactions may involve unexpected costs, liabilities or delays; (7) other economic, business, competitive, legal, regulatory, and / or tax factors; and (8) other factors described under the heading «Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the SEC.

They point out an important feature of mortgage securitization: its «tail risk» — the risk that a loan will greatly underperform on its expectations.

In their November 2017 paper entitled «Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies», Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich examine usefulness of managing volatility in this way as applied to the S&P 500 Index over a long sample period and across a range of performance measurements.

«The use of the value - at - risk models which made no sense from my judgment because they cut off the tail» David Einhorn

As you can see from the chart, the additional risk reducing benefit of diversification tails off as we add ever more securities to a home market portfolio.

In today's «Trends and Tail Risks» I review what the yield curve is saying now and what it means for the world of investing.

Tail risks include market events that generally would have a small chance of occurring.

Tail risk is a technical measure of portfolio risk that arises when there is an increased probability that an investment will experience a price swing much larger than it would be expected to under normal conditions.

In this week's Trends and Tail Risks we examine the precedent of the 1985 — 1986 crude oil price collapse — and OPEC's role in it — to see how we may apply the lessons of the past to the future.

Global Capitalism is trapped in its own Prisoner's Dilemma; forty four years after the end of the Bretton Woods System global central banks have manipulated the cost of risk in a competition of devaluation leading to a dangerous build up in debt and leverage, lower risk premiums, income disparity, and greater probability of tail events on both sides of the return distribution.

It helps to own tail risk, but tail risk can be expensive, and like I said earlier, you can build a fire - resistant portfolio without paying a lot of option premium.

VaR and Stress Tests: The Impact of Fat - Tail Risk and Systemic Risk on Commercial Banks in Hong Kong and China

We define them as those who responded «Agree» or «Strongly Agree» to three questions: «Risk management is an integral part of our investment process and actively addressed on a systematic, ongoing basis», «My organization has a strong risk management culture», and «I am confident that our portfolio has appropriate downside protection for the next tail event.&raRisk management is an integral part of our investment process and actively addressed on a systematic, ongoing basis», «My organization has a strong risk management culture», and «I am confident that our portfolio has appropriate downside protection for the next tail event.&rarisk management culture», and «I am confident that our portfolio has appropriate downside protection for the next tail event.»

In this Part 1, first, we look at the tail of an asset return distribution and compress our knowledge on Value - at - Risk (VaR) to extract the essence required to understand why VaR - stuff is not the best card in our deck.

Risk is measured by calculating the average of relative volatility, relative Value at Risk (VaR), relative Estimated Tail Loss (ETL) and relative stressed downside capture.

As such, even the numerous optimists seem aware of the asymmetrical tail risk associated with the first arrow (monetary).

He also considers average and median terminal wealth / bequest, tail risk, annual volatility (standard deviation of annual returns) and upside potential.

As I've regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we're partial to a layer of tail - risk hedges.

People regularly ignore risks, but isn't it the extreme scenario — the thing that has the 1 percent chance of happening, the so - called long tail at each end of the bell curve — that causes all the trouble?

However, the association of the telomere G - tail length with various risk factors in humans has not been clarified yet.

In patients with chronic cerebrovascular disease and comorbidities, a shortened telomere G - tail length was associated with age and Framingham risk score, which is an algorithm used to estimate the 10 - year cardiovascular risk of an individual.

Nevertheless, it provides initial evidence for the association of telomere G - tail length with aging, endothelial function, and ARWMCs in patients with vascular risk factors.

Showy ornaments used by the male of the species in competition for mates, such as the long tail of a peacock or shaggy mane of a lion, could indicate a species» risk of decline in a changing climate, according to a new study from Queen Mary University of London (QMUL).

On the tail of California's most destructive and expensive year of firefighting ever, it might seem obvious that vegetation removal would reduce the risk of such a year happening again.

The fuse is there to protect items from getting too much juice, so increasing the fuse rating to allow for a brighter headlight will also mean that other items (possibly your horn, blinkers, tail / brake light etc.) at greater risk of overload as well.

Compressed valuations in agency mortgage - backed securities and the tail risk from the uncertain impact of Fed balance sheet normalization keep us neutral on the asset class.

«A deep MI pilot built around the core strengths of the MI industry, lender relationships, independent underwriting standards, and expertise in pricing long tailed credit risk, combined with Credit Risk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.&rarisk, combined with Credit Risk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.&raRisk Transfer via the capital and reinsurance markets by MI companies, can better protect the U.S. taxpayer while also providing prudent access to home ownership.»

Their greatest weakness was in not having a suitable understanding of the downstream, or long tail, risk of derivatives, particularly in the reference securities.

Vineer Bhansali's Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets takes on the question of diversification.