In the fall course, we watched the TED
talk on climate models by Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, then spent two illuminating hours with him.
Dana Nuccitelli presented
a talk on climate model accuracy — comparing past global temperature projections to observations, and effectively debunking associated myths.
Not exact matches
In examining the ultimate transdisciplinary issue, humanity's evolving two - way relationship with the
climate, I've had the rare privilege of studying the whole picture, from the
climate models running
on supercomputers in Boulder in 1985 to the burning rain forests of the western Amazon in 1989 to the shifting sea ice around the North Pole in 2003 to the contentious
climate treaty
talks in one city after another.
That may be true if you are
talking about
climate models, but in determining the impact of higher temperatures
on ecosystems and agriculture, knowledge about the MWP and other past temperature extremes is likely very interesting.
I find concerned liberals are loath to
talk about how consistently wrong
climate models have been or about the «pause» in global warming that has gone
on for over fifteen years, while
climate skeptics avoid discussion of things like ocean acidification and accelerated melting in Greenland and the Arctic.
There are many who will not like this recent paper published in Nature Communications
on principle as it
talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that
climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.
Well it depends
on whether you are
talking about
Climate Sensitivity (Charney sensitivity... which is
modelled) or Earth System Sensitivity (where things like ice sheet extent, vegetation cover etc are regarded as able to respond quickly to warming).
The author's points
on non-linearity and time delays are actually more relevant to the discussion in other presentations when I
talked about whether the
climate models that show high future sensitivities to CO2 are consistent with past history, particularly if warming in the surface temperature record is exaggerated by urban biases.
With all the
talk this week about future
climate — the global warming imagined by IPCC crystal ball
models, that is — the focus for many is rightly
on the gulf between predictions and observations that have taken place so far.
In my experience this is certainly the case if you
talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the
climate models are not predicting what the weather will be
on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the
climate based
on emission scenarios and initial conditions.
In his
talk, «Statistical Emulation of Streamflow Projections: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5
Climate Change Projections,» PCIC Lead of Hydrological Impacts, Markus Schnorbus, explored whether the streamflow projections based
on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the
models from the third phase of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project.
I once attempted to
talk about the limitations of
climate models with Gavin Schmidt
on realclimate... Oh.
He had already been warned
on this thread that when I had earlier answered a legitimate question from a commenter far more polite and sensible than he, I had replied with a straightforward account of how Professor Lindzen, in a
talk that he had given under my chairmanship at the Houses of Parliament, had calculated that if the increase in evaporation from the Earth's surface with warming was thrice that which the
models predicted then
climate sensitivity was one - third of that which the
models predicted.
This weekend, I am listening to the
talks at the Rotman Institute Conference
on Knowledge and
Models in
Climate Science: Philosophical, Historical and Scientific Perspectives.
It consisted of two
talks: one
on Climate services and infectious disease, the second on the link between climate modeling research and climate s
Climate services and infectious disease, the second
on the link between
climate modeling research and climate s
climate modeling research and
climate s
climate services
Most of the
talk focusses
on climate models, and the kinds of experiments you can do with them.
Actually Huang does recognize and
talk about the difference in trends derived for a
climate model between tas and tos using the GFLD CM2.1
model and there the authors report trend differences from 1875 to 2000 where the ocean air temperature trends are higher than the ocean surface temperature trends
on the order of what the Cowtan paper found for several CMIP5
models.
To the extent you want readers to think of
climate models as a single collective genre, as represented by a core set of processes «based
on fundamental laws of nature» it makes sense to
talk about the behaviour of the average of
model runs.
A decade earlier even the Russians arguing about
climate science
on the run - up to the SALT
talks, being good materialists, had to concede the diffference between validation and verification — between iterating
model runs and finding out more about what goes into them.
Talk to someone who rejects the conclusions of
climate science and you'll likely hear some variation of the following: «That's all based
on models, and you can make a
model say anything you want.»
In support of my understanding I have transcribed below Salby's description the IPCC
climate modeling framework (GSMs) at the ~ 28:56 min mark of the podcast of his
talk «Global Emission of Carbon Dioxide: The Contribution from Natural Sources» given at the Sydney Institute
on 2 Aug 2011.
By consulting
climate records and
modeling extreme events with and without added greenhouse gases, scientists can
talk about how much global warming has increased the chances of extreme events — without blaming any one event
on warming.
I do follow this debate from a layman's perspective and the one thing I find really confusing is why when
talking about
climate science /
climate change and the
models being used, they never
talk about weather modification programs that have been going
on for over 70 years around the world.
Others have
talked about what this might look like — regional impacts, measurement quality, reduced funding to GCM
modeling (consistent with their strength in testing subsystems rather than forecasting
climate), and more empirical work and
modeling of those systems that have a large impact
on areas of risk.
As a partner of the Gauss - Alliance (GA),
on 21st June, DKRZ employeesgave
talks on the scalability of
climate models for the example of HD (CP) 2 and
on the improvement of in - and output at tth GA booth DKRZ A-1414.
I can appreciate that curve fitting doesn't really make sense when
talking about running
climate models initialised
on historical data and comparing the output to observations.
The BBC has decided not to every
talk to
climate skeptics again, in part based
on the «evidence» of computer
modelling
In examining the ultimate transdisciplinary issue, humanity's evolving two - way relationship with the
climate, I've had the rare privilege of studying the whole picture, from the
climate models running
on supercomputers in Boulder in 1985 to the burning rain forests of the western Amazon in 1989 to the shifting sea ice around the North Pole in 2003 to the contentious
climate treaty
talks in one city after another.
Hansen states in pretty much any
talk he gives that our understanding of
climate change is based
on three pillars: Current obervations, paleodata, and physics based
modeling.