ECB head Mario Draghi, while doing nothing but saying a lot, is hinting that he will begin to
taper bond purchases soon.
As the financial condition improved and the economy showed signs of a recovery, the Fed decided to
taper its bond purchase before winding it down completely.
During October, Freddie Mac reported that the Federal Reserve would not be
tapering its bond purchases for the remainder of 2013.
Not exact matches
But with the Federal Reserve
tapering its
purchases of
bonds and signaling that it could soon begin to tighten monetary policy, more and more experts have been declaring an end to the bull market.
A cloud of uncertainty had settled over markets after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke first mentioned the possibility of
tapering the Fed's monthly
bond purchases during congressional testimony on May 22.
The Fed has cut $ 10 million from its monthly
bond purchases, which fall to $ 75 billion, but said further
tapering depended on the strength of the economy, particularly job creation.
Although last year was favorable for developing countries, investors remember the painful «
taper tantrum» that ensued several years ago, when the Fed signaled it would begin pulling back on its massive
bond purchases that kept rates low while injecting liquidity in markets.
While I don't presume to read traders» (or trading computers») minds (see Barry ritholtz» note this morning about ex post facto rationalizations), generally speaking there is concern that the «
taper» of long term
bond purchases will cause
bond yields (the percent of interest paid on them) to rise.
Given that the Federal Reserve was
tapering from its
bond -
purchasing stimulus program (otherwise known as quantitative easing), Doll said, you had to be crazy bearish to not believe interest rates would fail to reach 3.5 % in 2014.
Type 3: The value - at - risk (VAR) shock in Japan in 2003 occurred when fears spread that the Bank of Japan, which was already doing QE before it was called QE, would
taper its
purchases of Japanese Government
Bonds.
Investors have had a long time to digest the
taper news: Their reaction to the Fed actually shrinking the size of its
bond purchases is likely to be smaller than their reaction in anticipation of such a move.
The effects of the Fed's potential
tapering of its $ 85 billion in monthly
bond purchases are showing in global markets.
At some point in the next year, the Fed will
taper off its
bond purchases, As it does that and as the market anticipates that, we're likely to see some big swings in the stock market.
H.L.: The stock market, hedge fund managers, banks, and investors were all aflutter about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments about possibly
tapering off on its monthly
purchase of $ 85 billion worth of Treasury
bonds and mortgage - backed securities.
They likely have room to up allocations: $ 71 billion has left Asia ex-Japan
bonds and stocks since the mid-2013 «
taper tantrum» set off by the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaling an end to
bond purchases, according to EPFR Global data.
The fact that the 10 - year is trading closer to 3 percent is probably due to continued large
purchases of Treasury
bonds by the Fed, which are going to
taper off.
The US dollar looks to be on target for its best weekly performance against the Japanese yen since early June, despite yesterday's slip on the back of concerns for the stability of the US economy with the potential
tapering of the Federal Reserve's $ 85 billion a month
bond purchasing program once again coming to the forefront of investors minds.
We think the speculation about a potential future tightening of monetary policy by the ECB — whether in the form of a
tapering of
bond purchases or a rise in interest rates — has moved too far ahead of the economic and political realities within the eurozone.
Marilyn Watson, head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy at BlackRock predicts: «Given the currency bloc's improving fundamental backdrop and recent impressive data releases, particularly in Germany, not to mention the shortage of supply of
bonds to buy, we believe that the ECB will fully
taper its asset
purchase programme by the end of 2018.»
But our view is that the start of any
tapering of the ECB's
bond purchases is likely to be delayed until 2018, and would perhaps be more gradually implemented than is widely expected, until policymakers can be more confident that inflation will return and remain close to their target of around 2 %.
The eurozone's lack of organic growth and its reliance on continued central bank stimulus likely increased market sensitivity to a report claiming the ECB might be considering
tapering its $ 80 billion monthly
purchases of
bonds, though the claim was quickly dismissed by the ECB.
But in the absence of any suggestion that the currency's appreciation would delay a
tapering of
bond purchases, the single currency's rally — which by the end of August had taken it above US$ 1.20 for the first time since the start of 2015 — resumed, following a brief pause in the run - up to the ECB meeting.
Since the BOJ already owns close to half of all outstanding Japanese government
bonds of a 10 - year maturity and below, its move was viewed by some market participants as, in effect, a tacit admission the BOJ had reached the limit for QE and possibly the first stage of a
taper of its
bond purchases.
That lower supply means that even though the Fed may
purchase less
Bonds with
tapering, it could still be stimulative because there is less supply coming to the market.
In particular, the U.S. Federal Reserve has already started to «
taper» its massive
purchases of mortgages and
bonds and is expected to end them outright later this year.
Periodic reversals in the relationship include the «
taper tantrum» of 2013, when both equities and
bonds sold off in response to Federal Reserve hints about a
tapering of its
bond purchases.
The policy setting wing of the Fed (Federal Open Market Committee) has already enacted «
tapering» — or reduction — of QE
bond purchases.
The
taper of the Fed's
bond purchases is on course to end in October or November.
They're not taking stands on QEternity (Quantitative Easing 1, 2, 3, etc.) or
tapering of
bond purchases.
Between the slow drawn - out economic recovery and heightened expectations surrounding the timing of the Fed's
tapering of its asset
purchases,
bond market yields have risen significantly.
As the economy and job markets improve, the FED has said it would start to
taper, then completely end their
purchasing of mortgage
bonds.