This is
sensible because, as the experience of that American committee demonstrates,
technology is relatively easy to predict
in the short term because most products take at least a decade to make their
way from the research labs to the shops.
Within economics modelling, attempts to model the feedback mechanisms that occur
in the real economy are also really difficult — we know, for example, that investment
in new
technologies will act as an incentive for the existing
technologies it hopes to substitute to become more efficient (the sailing ship effect — i.e.
in the 50 years after the introduction of the steam ship, sailing ships made more efficiency improvements than they had
in the previous 3 centuries) but how to quantify something even as simple as this is not easy BUT we have learnt a few
ways to give
sensible (order of magnitude) figures with time lags, the learning by doing effect and phased -
in substitution effects based on massive amounts of data.