In other words, the ocean is not a simple 1 - D slab that diffuses
temperature anomalies down from the surface.
Figure 1: Dates of large historical eruptions (Siebert et al., 2011) within the last 600 years that likely caused significant Northern Hemisphere negative
temperature anomalies as noted and ranked by Briffa et al. (1998).
I am really impressed by the spatial correlation between the model run and the actual
temperature anomalies.
Using the known amplification of the solar cycle (and presumably the long term trend) in the UV band, allowing stratospheric temperatures and circulation patterns to adjust and including the direct radiative forcings from the sun and volcanoes, we found that it gave
temperature anomalies and spatial patterns that were in fair agreement with the observations (Shindell et al, 2003).
Most of the images showing the transient changes in global mean temperatures (GMT) over the 20th Century and projections out to the 21st C, show
temperature anomalies.
If this is correct, than sea ice will be much greater this summer than in recent years because northern hemisphere
temperature anomalies have been low this winter.
In saying Monckton was more right than wrong, I was referring to the comparison of the IPCC scenarios for
temperature anomalies compared to actual results over recent years.
I have a general question on
the temperature anomalies.
In addition, if you regress NASA GISS
temperature anomalies on year for 1999 - 2008 («the past 10 years») you get a statistically significant rising trend.
They adjust
the temperature anomalies of urban stations by comparison with close by rural ones.
Why don't you get a list of CO2 levels and global
temperature anomalies for each year since 1910 and see what correlation they have?
To continue with my previous comment, I've created an image which compares a graph of Atlantic tropical storm systems to a graph of global surface air
temperature anomalies from 1851 to 2004:
Getting past the number crunching, it summarizes the impact of
temperature anomalies as: +1.5 — «Systems are cracking» (e.g. Greenland, WAIS, permafrost.
Here's the background: «As far as the NOAA issue goes, the use of a baseline to calculate
temperature anomalies relates to the issue of what is meant by «anomaly».
So, how should somewhat complex matters relating to average global surface
temperature anomalies be reported in the media?
The details are described in the previous link, but the basic issue is that
temperature anomalies have a much greater correlation scale (100's of miles) than absolute temperatures — i.e. if the monthly anomaly in upstate New York is a 2ºC, that is a good estimate for the anomaly from Ohio to Maine, and from Quebec to Maryland, while the absolute temperature would vary far more.
Because of the importance of interpolation, I do not think that would be the solution for
temperature anomalies from station data.
Once it is published, the historical HadCRUT global
temperature anomalies will also be updated.
Of course I've seen the often used IPCC TAR result here showing that modelling results combining natural and anthropogenic forcings reproduce 20th century global mean surface
temperature anomalies relative to the 1880 to 1920 mean.
«On May 22nd, 2014, global sea surface
temperature anomalies spiked to an amazing +1.25 degrees Celsius above the, already warmer than normal, 1979 to 2000 average.
You must, therefore, be able to determine what
the temperature anomalies (w.r.t 1951 - 80 mean as per GISS) for those 3 years — if Pinatubo had not taken place.
Among these deniers» points are items such as local
temperature anomalies, erratic cause and effect timelines, claims that the climate is projected to actually cool -LRB-!)
It turns out that while the actual temperature at a point is not very representative of the actual temperature at nearby points,
the temperature anomalies are.
Here are the mean global annual
temperature anomalies for 2001 to 2006 (NASA GISS):
Isn't this a deliberate manipulation of data, which results in far lower
temperature anomalies being reported by NOAA as «data»?
When I look up
the temperature anomalies relative to the base period 1951 - 1980 for Nov 2014 at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp I find a change of 0.65 °C for GLB.Ts + dSST.txt and 0.78 °C for NH.Ts + dSST.txt.
Figure 3: Comparison of
temperature anomalies from RSS satellite data (red) over the Moscow region (35ºE — 40ºE, 54ºN — 58ºN) versus Moscow station data (blue).
For global
temperature anomalies, we are doing pretty well.
I have come to see modeling global
temperature anomalies as a similar pastime.
Ok, the models have done a pretty good job of estimating global
temperature anomalies.
OK, Are there some simple projections of the MSU lower troposphere
temperature anomalies that we could watch come (mostly) true over the next year or two?
(The specific dataset used as the foundation of the composition was the Combined Land - Surface Air and Sea - Surface Water
Temperature Anomalies Zonal annual means.)
one they can understand... and that really needs to be in terms of physical
temperature anomalies.
I regressed NASA GISS
temperature anomalies 2001 - 2008 on year and got a positive slope that was statistically insignificant.
On particular case in point was this past winters extremely warm periods, in fact as I can recall Michael Mann write, about North Americas sea of red
temperature anomalies of January as something which is supposed to happen «20 years» from now.
As confirmation, the correlation between CO2 levels and CRU
temperature anomalies (see above) is r = 0.912, p < 1.43 x 10 ^ -64.
It's long been known that El Niño variability affects the global mean
temperature anomalies.
I'm also interested in knowing how to reason about the effect of snow cover on
temperature anomalies, just for its own sake.
And a study by Evan et al (2009) The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean
Temperature Anomalies
It is also used by both GISS and Hadley Met Centre for calculating
temperature anomalies against 30 year base periods.
However, it is unknown if the temporal variability of these aerosols is a key factor in the evolution of ocean
temperature anomalies.
Those who are crowing about the recent «cooling» need only do one thing: pick a set of
temperature anomalies, Hadley or GISS, for example, and plot 10 year and 30 year trends.
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which, as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely warming ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which in turn are caused by polar
temperature anomalies of +20 C as of late.
(G) Northern Hemisphere average proxy
temperature anomalies (10 - year means) reconstructed by Mann et al. (26) on the basis of two approaches (CPS, composite plus scale; EIV, error in variables) and by Moberg et al..
Sorry I should have been more precise in my previous post and given UAH SH land
temperature anomalies: Jul: +0.26 C Aug: -0.56 C Sep: +0.24 C http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt I don't have the RSS figures to hand but they won't be very different in any event.
Note that the UV variations are strongly disproportionate to the integrated TSI change, and can reach up to 100 % variation (depending on the wavelength interval), ~ 6 % at UV wavelengths in the stratosphere, and
temperature anomalies of ~ 1000 K in the very uppermost regions of the atmosphere; section 4 of the Gray et al. paper discussed UV changes and stratospheric feedbacks.
Micro-site effects and their timing are not coherent over thousands of kilometers — large scale
temperature anomalies are.
With 150k sq km gap between today's SIE & the maximum - so - far suggests the region that will decide when this year's maximum appears will be the Bering Sea rather than the high Arctic that saw record
temperature anomalies.
I've seen the blue blobs of
temperature anomalies and read — as far as I am able to comprehend — the materials on the breakdown of the AMOC, along with following cryosphere melting.
It's worth noting that these kinds of comparisons work because of large distance over which the monthly
temperature anomalies correlate.