So why do they not get BOTH the CO2 and
TEMPERATURE estimates from the same proxy, instead of from different ones from different places around the world.
Most LGM proxy data suggest that the tropical oceans were colder by about 2 °C than at present, and that the frontal zones in the SH and NH were shifted equatorward (Kucera et al., 2005), even though large differences are found between
temperature estimates from the different proxies in the North Atlantic.
I feel the same way about calling the global
temperature estimates from the HadCru, GISS and NOAA surface statistical models «observations.»
Estimates of natural variability from an AOGCM provide a critical input in deriving, by comparing
temperature estimates from the simple model with observations, a likelihood function for the parameters jointly at each possible combination of parameter settings (and in one or two cases AOGCMs provide surrogates for some of the observational data).
Berkeley's record overlaps quite well with existing records from about 1875 onwards, and includes the first ever global land
temperature estimates from 1753 - 1850.
We can compare that to what results from subtracting the average of surface
temperature estimates from the average of satellite measurements:
Participants reviewed the motivations for the new PAGES CoralHydro2k project,
temperature estimates from a variety of geochemical proxies and their uncertainties, the challenges with fossil corals, novel proxies for global biogeochemical cycles, and data management and sample exchange.
The following graph shows annual average
temperature estimates from Berkeley Earth and 5 other research groups that estimate surface temperature.
They range from LANDSAT images of land use in the Chesapeake Basin, to fish catches off California since the 1920s, to 400,000 years of global
temperature estimates from antarctic ice cores.
The global mean
temperature estimated from the ERAINT, however, is not very different from other analyses or reanalyses (see figure below) for the time they overlap.
I'm sure you could work backwards from a detailed core from the indo pacific, compare it to data from the same area and the global as a whole today, and deduced a very crude global mean
temperature estimate from one thousands years ago.
The new satellite Qa10 are used in combination with the newly reprocessed QuikSCAT V3, the latest version of sea surface temperature (SST) analyses, and with 10m air
temperature estimated from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses (ERA Interim).
You can not compare temperatures measured by thermometers to
temperatures estimated from proxies.
I have checked up on the diurnal variation in temperature and found this paper: Seidel et al., 2005 Diurnal cycle of upper - air
temperature estimated from radiosondes.
Not exact matches
«Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance
from all nations, it is
estimated it would only produce a two - tenths of one degree — think of that, this much — Celsius reduction in global
temperature by the year 2100,» he said.
By inputting various data (
from vitamin intake to
temperature levels), Glow gives women «an
estimate of their fertility window via a calendar and an indication of the «percent chance» of getting pregnant.»
Temperatures in Ocean City vary
from being in the 90s F in the summer down to the teens during the average winter, Moore
estimates.
In spite of the shutdown of colleges across the mid-Atlantic due to snow, and the -20 degree
temperatures at Michigan State University that kept many students inside, an
estimated 400 packaging, graphic design, sales and business students and faculty
from 15 colleges and universities participated.
They weren't
estimating or extrapolating
from lab experiments — they were applying the laws of fundamental quantum mechanics to derive iron's properties at extreme pressures and
temperatures.
Last week Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies,
estimated that the average global
temperature in 2016 could range
from about 1.1 °C above preindustrial to only slightly below 1.5 °C, based on GISS's
temperature record and its definition of pre-industrial (other records and definitions vary).
The best
estimates of the increase in global
temperatures range
from 1.8 to 4.0 degrees C for the various emission scenarios, with higher emissions leading to higher
temperatures.
Nelson and his colleagues, working with funding
from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank,
estimated global agricultural impacts by pairing IFPRI's own economic models for crop yields with climate models for precipitation and
temperature from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.
So using both land - use and
temperature information
from satellites, Xiao and his team could track the spread of the flu by
estimating where the birds would be.
The team used real - time seasonal rainfall,
temperature and El Niño forecasts, issued at the start of the year, combined with data
from active surveillance studies, in a probabilistic model of dengue epidemics to produce robust dengue risk
estimates for the entire year.
From this, they could
estimate the climate sensitivity and the result was that where it was about 4.5 degrees C before the PETM, the
temperature rose to about 5.1 degrees during the PETM.
The government dataset, called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface
Temperature version 4, increased the sea surface temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring i
Temperature version 4, increased the sea surface
temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring i
temperature trend
estimate over the last 18 years
from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring instruments.
In the case of Scottsbluff, Vatistas and his team found that the
temperature inside the tornado would have dropped
from a comfortably warm background
temperature of 27o C to a chilly 12o C. And at the tornado's centre, the researchers
estimated the air density would have been 20 per cent lower than what's found at high altitudes.
To
estimate the
temperature at various depths (
from 3,500 m to 9,500 m depth) the researchers have used the heat flow and
temperatures at 1,000 m and 2,000 m provided in the Atlas of Geothermal Resources in Europe, as well as thermal data of the land surface available
from NASA.
Cole Miller of the University of Maryland in College Park finds this reasoning convincing, but points out that both groups of astronomers relied on particularly complex models to
estimate the
temperature of a star
from its brightness, rather than measuring the
temperature directly.
The researchers then
estimated the relative contributions of heat and cold,
from moderate to extreme
temperatures.
Prior groups at NOAA, NASA, and in the UK (HadCRU)
estimate about a 1.2 degree C land
temperature rise
from the early 1900s to the present.
Their solar
estimates were based on a number of different proxies and the
temperature was taken
from the Bradley and Jones Northern Hemisphere record.
Future projections for the same cities are drawn
from climate models that
estimate temperature and humidity assuming global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
Because of those uncertainties, researchers can
estimate only that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide
from preindustrial levels would increase global
temperature between 1 °C and 5 °C.
Previously,
estimates of the sensitivity of global
temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged
from 1.5 °C to 5 °C.
The result is an
estimate of the global average
temperature difference
from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.
With an
estimated burial
temperature of 13 °C, the DNA's half - life was 521 years — almost 400 times longer than expected
from lab experiments at similar
temperatures.
To make mortality
estimates, the researchers took
temperature projections
from 16 global climate models, downscaled these to Manhattan, and put them against two different backdrops: one assuming rapid global population growth and few efforts to limit emissions; the other, assuming slower growth, and technological changes that would decrease emissions by 2040.
As a baseline for
estimating temperature - related deaths, they used the 1980s, when an
estimated 370 Manhattanites died
from overheating, and 340 died
from cold.
Currently, the most common practices for
estimating sex ratios
from nesting beaches use nest
temperature, beach
temperatures, or incubation duration and empirically derived relationships
from laboratory data.
Any reforms to come
from the process, starting next week, would affect about 62 percent of New York state's population, the proportion
estimated to reside now in areas that could be hard hit as rising land and ocean
temperatures raise average sea levels around the globe.
Heatwaves
from Europe to China are likely to be more intense and result in maximum
temperatures that are 3 °C to 5 °C warmer than previously
estimated by the middle of the century — all because of the way plants on the ground respond to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Had regional
temperature cooled by ∼ 4 °C, as has been
estimated from climate models of the eruption's impact (14), the lake would likely have experienced massive overturn of the water column, a major iron oxidation event, and extermination of much of the biota in the upper water column.
Starting in the late 1990s, scientists began using sophisticated methods to combine proxy evidence
from many different locations in an effort to
estimate surface
temperature changes during the last few hundred to few thousand years.
The authors used a new methodology to combine data
from a number of sources to
estimate temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere for the last six centuries and later for the last 1,000 years.
Using detailed production data
from a half - million Chinese manufacturing plants in the period 1998 - 2007, the research team
estimated the effects of
temperature on firm - level productivity, factor inputs and output.
[Response: The AWS records useful because they provide a totally independent
estimate of the spatial covariance pattern in the
temperature field (which we primarily get
from satellites).
(Bottom) Patterns of linear global
temperature trends
from 1979 to 2005
estimated at the surface (left), and for the troposphere (right)
from the surface to about 10 km altitude,
from satellite records.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces,
from three different
estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty
estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Given that it doesn't matter much which forcing is changing, sensitivity can be assessed
from any particular period in the past where the changes in forcing are known and the corresponding equilibrium
temperature change can be
estimated.