"Temperature hiatus" refers to a period when the rate of global warming appears to slow down or pause temporarily. It means that even though the Earth's temperature is still increasing over the long term, there may be a shorter period of time where the rate of increase seems to slow down.
Full definition
Some years ago when experts were writing papers to explain the cause of the C21
global temperature hiatus, I noted the opportunities this created for proxy students.
The report touches on the «
temperature hiatus» of the last 15 years, but notes (as in the graphic above) that the basic trend in warming is unrelenting when looked at decade by decade.
The report contains a helpful section on
the temperature hiatus / pause / plateau that has provided persistent fodder for those questioning the significance of climate change, and has also generated a heap of focused research:
If it doesn't work out, you can always fall back on the weather - not - climate short - term noise on a long - term trend hypothesis that is currently being proposed for the surface
temperature hiatus.
Using data available in the mid-1990s, they also apply a recently - developed climate prediction technique that uses modern global climate models (GCM), initialized with observations, to make so - called «decadal climate predictions» and find that both the negative phase of the IPO and the surface
temperature hiatus could be predicted with this method, using only data that was available prior to the hiatus.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. Y., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Model - based evidence of deep - ocean heat uptake during surface -
temperature hiatus periods.
The temperature hiatus for instance.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Model - based evidence of deep - ocean heat uptake during surface -
temperature hiatus periods.
In fact global temperatures shot up in 2015 with the aid of another super El Niño, reaching a landmark 1 °C above pre-industrial conditions and ending any semblance of a surface
temperature hiatus.