So the issues are the same as surface
temperature observation versus naive projections of the near - future forcings.
Average global surface air
temperature observations versus IPCC climate model simulations.
Not exact matches
And of course the new paper by Hausfather et al, that made quite a bit of news recently, documents how meticulously scientists work to eliminate bias in sea surface
temperature data, in this case arising from a changing proportion of ship
versus buoy
observations.
When a very large percentage of the simulations are over estimating
temperature versus observations, this should require one to question the validity of these simulations *** out loud ***.
Altitude dependence of atmospheric
temperature trends: Climate models
versus observations.
As reported in Roy's post, these plots by John are based upon data from the KNMI Climate Explorer with a comparison of 44 climate models
versus the UAH and RSS satellite
observations for global lower tropospheric
temperature variations, for the period 1979 - 2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 — 2025 for the models.
My understanding is that the latest research on what PBL calls «
Temperature trend
versus UAH results» and I might call the «phantom hot - spot in the upper tropical troposphere» indicates that
observations currently invalidate climate models.
One recent comparison of greenhouse gas concentrations,
temperatures, and sea - level rise
observations versus predictions concluded:
«In response to those who complained in my recent post that linear trends are not a good way to compare the models to
observations (even though the modelers have claimed that it's the long - term behavior of the models we should focus on, not individual years), here are running 5 - year averages for the tropical tropospheric
temperature, models
versus observations...»
Earlier this year, a comparison was done using the GISS global
temperature observations dataset
versus an earlier version of the NASA / GISS computer climate model output, as of 2015 year - end.
The 15 - year pause shows up on some the surface air
temperature series, but does it make sense
versus observations?
Altitude dependence of atmospheric
temperature trends: Climate models
versus observation (Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.
From that
observation I once thought that the large differences in the trends in the regression
temperature versus forcing were not primarily the result red and white noise in the
temperature series.
My eyeball tells me that the RMS error is very low, but I'd still like to see the numerical values of RMS error for
temperature output
versus observation for the last 100 years.
Average of the IPCC computer model projections for the tropical mid-troposphere
versus three standard sets of
observations: weather balloons,
temperature sensed from satellites, and «reanalysis» data used to initialize the daily weather map.