The ACORN - SAT dataset is an analysis of Australian
temperature observations since 1910 that provides a record of temperatures that can be compared through time.
However, it is accurate that 2011 and 2010 had the consecutive hottest mean maxima recorded at any of the three Perth locations used for
temperature observations since 1897.
Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea - surface
temperature observations since 1850 part 1: measurement and sampling errors.
Not exact matches
Scientific
observations show that in the Arctic, warming
temperatures have led to a 75 % loss in sea ice volume
since the 1980s, and recent reports suggest the Arctic Ocean will be nearly free of summer sea ice by 2050, said Sullivan.
The controversial
observation could be explained by the mission's previous discovery of perchlorate salts in the soil,
since the salts can keep water liquid at sub-zero
temperatures.
Rising
temperatures have caused the amount of Arctic sea ice to shrink dramatically
since global
observations began in the 1970s.
The
observation that
temperatures have not been rising
since 1998 is generally raised as a «tongue - in - cheek» comment.
Since the UHI effect is reduced in windy conditions, if the UHI effect was a significant component of the
temperature record, then we would see a different rate of warming when
observations are stratified by calm or windy conditions.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite
observations show the sea surface
temperature (SST) increasing
since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
Since the temperature changes since 1979 are on the order of 0.6 C or so, it is relatively easy for bias, due to changing observation times, to swamp the underlying climate si
Since the
temperature changes
since 1979 are on the order of 0.6 C or so, it is relatively easy for bias, due to changing observation times, to swamp the underlying climate si
since 1979 are on the order of 0.6 C or so, it is relatively easy for bias, due to changing
observation times, to swamp the underlying climate signal.
And
since we don't have good ocean heat content data, nor any satellite
observations, or any measurements of stratospheric
temperatures to help distinguish potential errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty in the attribution for that period than for more recently.
The
observation that
temperatures have not been rising
since 1998 is generally raised as a «tongue - in - cheek» comment.
While land surface
observations go back hundreds of years in a few places, data of sufficient coverage for estimating global
temperature have been available only
since the end of the 19th century.
This was one of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the global - average surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady
since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the
observations during 2001 - 2013.
Air
temperature increases similar to those observed aloft
since 1960, amplified by associated increases in humidity, account for a significant portion of the enhanced ablation leading to this strongly negative mass balance, but the exact proportion is highly uncertain because of the short span of energy and mass balance
observations.
If the predicted cooling by la Nina had not occurred then 2008 would probably have been the same
temperature (given the uncertainties) as every year
since 2001 and that in itself would require explanation.I am broadly in favour of the global warmingCO2 hypothesis but I know it is just that, a hypothesis — and that needs testing against real
observations in the physical world.
Even putting aside the OHC data and fingerprinting, there is absolutely no evidence in model simulations (or in prevailing reconstructions of the Holocene), that an unforced climate would exhibit half - century timescale global
temperature swings of order ~ 1 C. I don't see a good theoretical reason why this should be the case, but
since Judith lives on «planet
observations» it should be a pause for thought.
A combination of low winter snow accumulation and warm spring
temperatures created a new record low spring snow cover duration over the Arctic in 2010,
since satellite
observations began in 1966.
To conclude, a projection from 1981 for rising
temperatures in a major science journal, at a time that the
temperature rise was not yet obvious in the
observations, has been found to agree well with the
observations since then, underestimating the observed trend by about 30 %, and easily beating naive predictions of no - change or a linear continuation of trends.
Multiple satellite measurements and ground - based
observations have determined the ozone layer has stopped declining
since 1995 while
temperature trends continue upwards.
A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the ocean surface
temperature, and remains a possibility that a significant part of the overall increase of atmospheric CO2
since at least 1958 (start of Mauna Loa
observations) simply relflects the gradual warming of the oceans as a result of the prolonged period of high solar activity
since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004).
These
observations are consistent with the observed increase in
temperatures and represent an important advance
since the TAR.
I can recall being censored off of RealClimate for asking Gavin why NOAA still published radiosonde and satellite
observations since 1948 showing that tropospheric humidity did NOT increase with
temperature over the long term if these were wrong.
Six additional years of
observations since the TAR (Chapter 3) show that
temperatures are continuing to warm near the surface of the planet.
A new NASA and University of Tasmania study combined the ship's 135 - plus - year - old measurements of ocean
temperatures with modern
observations to get a picture of how the world's ocean has changed
since the Challenger's voyage.
In reconstructing the changes in global mean
temperature since 1850, Berkeley Earth has examined 16 million monthly average
temperature observations from 43,000 weather stations.
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of
temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global
temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based
observations in sea surface
temperature trends»
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface
temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean
temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure
since 2006»
# 1: Historical surface
temperature observations over
since the middle of the 20th century show a clear signal of increasing surface
temperatures.
A recent study by Cowtan et al. (paper here) suggests that accounting for these biases between the global
temperature record and those taken from climate models reduces the divergence in trend between models and
observations since 1975 by over a third.
«Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface
temperature observations measured in situ
since 1850: 1.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual
observations are a combination of tas (land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea - surface
temperature observations measured in situ
since 1850, part 1: measurement and sampling uncertainties
Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW
since during the
observation period (1880 — 2007) global
temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences.
««Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols
since 1750 — omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases — are able to fit the
observations of global
temperatures only up until about 1950.»
As Mosher points out, we don't need no stinkin» Modulz to understand that CO2 is overwhelmingly the dominant driver of
temperature trends
since the mid-20th Century... for that we've got
observations.
Compare the SAR and the TAR for example, and
since then we have many more proxy reconstructions to consider, the satellite analyses corrected, new data about energy imbalances, better
observations of ocean currents and
temperature, ice sheet behaviour in Greenland and Antarctica and much much more.
However, there is not compelling evidence that anthropogenic CO2 was sufficient to influence Earth's
temperatures prior to 1950, i.e. «Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols
since 1750 — omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases — are able to fit the
observations of global
temperatures only up until about 1950.»
Third, climate change and its variation, as represented by global
temperatures in Chart # 4, is evident
since the first decade of
observations.
And while by eye I could conjecture 86 % of the one year CO2 rise were
temperature - correlated in any yearly cycle, clearly there is much greater
temperature variability in the region of Mauna Loa in a year (~ 5 - 10C) than there has been globally
since observations started (~ 0.7 C), so one would only consider Dr. Spencer's claims plausible if the rise in CO2
since 1960 were smaller than the change in a single year by a factor of ten, rather than larger by an order of magnitude.
Sea surface
temperature has been consistently higher during the past three decades than at any other time
since reliable
observations began in 1880.
«Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface
temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean
temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure
since 2006»
In Stockholm, where
temperature observations have been made
since 1756, it is apparent that the
temperature has been affected by the growing city.
SummaryFor two years beginning in 2013, a large team led by Sanjay Limaye set out to combine and compare the following: Venusian atmospheric data collected by probes in the 1970s and 1980s (used to create the Venus International Reference Atmosphere, or VIRA) Venus Express data on the vertical and horizontal structure of the atmosphereEarth - based
observations of the upper atmosphere
temperature structure of Venus made
since VIRAFigure 1a: Vertical coverage of post-VIRA atmospheric structure experi....
This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods
since 1970, each followed by a sharp
temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean
observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
This paper provides a significant basis for Tony Heller's consistent
observations that summer
temperatures in the US have declined
since the 1930s, and further calls into question the official NOAA
temperature record.
One approach is to estimate global
temperature as a simple function of climate forcing and ENSO through a regression approach; perhaps the best - known example is Foster & Rahmstorf (2011), which found that when the impact of natural factors (volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and ENSO) is removed, the trend in global
temperature has been remarkably steady
since 1979 (when satellite
observations of atmospheric
temperature begin).
In November 2009 the BoM repaired a Daily Weather
Observations database bug on its website that saw most WA
temperatures for August 2009 adjusted up by as much as.5 C, with all averaged
temperatures since that November correction being higher than before.
Summer (June — August) mean
temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C
since reliable
observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty - first century.
It seems to the writer that spreading global oceanic cycles of up to 30 years in length across 3 solar cycles results in a close enough match to fit
temperature observations over the past few hundred years and especially
since 1961.