Sentences with phrase «temperature on a decadal scale»

But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.

Not exact matches

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), marked by temperature fluctuations in the northern Pacific Ocean on a scale of 40 to 60 years, also plays a role.

New research published this week in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of regional coastal sea level changes on these decadal timescales.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acDecadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

I don't know if there may be something to accounting for surface / ocean trends on decadal scales, but I was interested in the possibility in light of the recent «haiatus» in surface temperatures.

A cold phase transition, which the historical record indicates can occur quite rapidly with large secular temperature changes on a decadal time scale, would truly be a catastrophe.

On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend»On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend»on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend».

However, this relationship (which, contrary to the claim of MFC09, is simulated by global climate models, e.g. Santer et al. [2001]-RRB- can not explain temperature trends on decadal and longer time scales.»

My calculations show that combining heliospheric magnetic field (controlling input of the cosmic rays basis of the Svensmark's theory) with changes in the Earth's magnetic field indeed shows close correlation with the temperature variability in the N. Hemisphere on the annual, decadal and multi-decadal scale.

Exactly, but using good numbers not a «hotchpotch assembly» for which it is claimed to be global temperature (there is no such thing, there is global energy content, but that is totally different story) So calculate correlation CET - GT from 1880 using 5 year bin averaging http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net//CETGNH.htm P.S. your statement on natural variability on decadal scale is grossly misleading, you got about 130 years of good records so you need to look at multi-decadal picture.

Temperature variations at Lake Qinghai on decadal scales and the possible relation to solar activities, Hai Xu, Xiaoyan Liu, Zhaohua Hou, 01/2008, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Physics, Volume 70, Issue 1, pp. 138 - 144

Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of ocean temperature anomalies [33], seawater temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).

In the case of the upper water in most oceans including the North Atlantic inflow, that temperature is increasing on the same decadal time scales as this ice loss.

All indications are that such input is insufficient to account for the extra thermal energy as reflected in the measured temperatures on decadal or century scale.

I will also add this that looks at seasonal temperatures on a more fine - grained decadal scale than the one you linked.

Unforced variability of global temperature is great, as shown in Figure 4, but the global temperature trend on decadal and longer time scales is now determined by the larger human - made climate forcing.

The CET data for the period indicate a distinct climate shift of some 0.35 degrees centigrade on a 50 year basis, but rather more on a decadal basis, so that well documented era can usefully be our benchmark for temperature comparisons, whilst demonstrating the usefulness of a decadal time scale in determining a change in the climate that is «noticeable» and has an impact on humans and nature.

Likewise, a statistician will not automatically be aware of the difference between proxies of low resolution (which may be good at estimating average temperature on a decadal or even centennial scale) and proxies of high resolution that are good at estimating temperature at a yearly level.

Cahalan, R. F., Wen, G. Y., Harder, J. W. & Pilewskie, P. Temperature responses to spectral solar variability on decadal time scales.

With a simple regression model based on the four cycles (about 9.1, 10, 20 and 60 year period) plus an upward trend, that can be geometrically captured by a quadratic fit of the temperature, in the paper I have proved that all GCMs adopted by the IPCC fail to geometrically reproduce the detected temperature cycles at both decadal and multidecadal scale.

9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions

It is well - known that changes in temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural and internal variations, and should not be confused with a long - term trend (Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011).

All six individual runs with bias - adjusted SST (only the average is shown) give simulated land air temperatures close to those observed so that internal model variability is small on decadal time - scales compared to the signal being sought.

Temperature increases in the thermocline occur on the decadal timescale whereas, over most of the abyss, it is the millennial time scale that is relevant, and the strength of MOC in the channel matters for the intensity of heat uptake.