Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect warming
on a global scale, the effects of increased
albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect
temperatures only
on a regional level.
[Response: weaker cosmic ray flux - > fewer low clouds - > decrease in sunlight reflected back to space), then you need to explain why the night
temperatures appear to increase faster then day
temperatures (for any amplification mechanism involving te
albedo, you'd expect the opposite, as there is no sunlight to reflect
on the dark side of the planet...).
Recent research indicates that global
albedo is fairly constant, and having no material effect
on global
temperatures.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier
on Mt. Kenya: «A decrease in the annual precipitation
on the order of 150 mm in the last quarter of the 19th century, followed by a secular air
temperature rise of a few tenths of a degree centigrade during the first half of the 20th century, together with associated
albedo and cloudiness variation, constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.»
Note also that going back to the ice ages, the glacial - interglacial
temperature swing can not be explained without full water vapour feedback
on top of both the ice sheet
albedo and CO2 effects.
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesi
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature
on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesi
on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal
temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased
albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
I meant that the attribution of the forcing between Ice
albedo, CO2, etc. might be dependent
on the
temperature.
As an analogy, if I told you that I was going to paint my white car black and that I expected it would get hotter
on sunny days as a result, you would probably start asking questions about what the
temperature of the paint was when I applied it and how those molecules heated up or cooled down, ignoring the relevant factor which is this: By painting the car black, I am changing the car's
albedo and thus changing the radiative balance between the car and the sun
on sunny days.
The famous «255 K» value for no greenhouse effect
on Earth is an example of this, although in reality if we got that cold you would expect a snowball - like Earth and a much higher
albedo from the increased brightness of the surface... and thus the «no - greenhouse
temperature» would be even colder than 255 K.
Suppose the planet in consideration has a surface of high
albedo surrounded (or
on top of) a surface of lower
albedo, and the extent of such a surface is
temperature - dependent.
Depending
on meridional heat transport, when freezing
temperatures reach deep enough towards low - latitudes, the ice -
albedo feedback can become so effective that climate sensitivity becomes infinite and even negative (implying unstable equilibrium for any «ice - line» (latitude marking the edge of ice) between the equator and some other latitude).
The 255K theoretical value depends
on the
albedo and is an upper limit which can only be reached with constant
temperatures across the globe and the day / night cycle.
During that process, upward LW radiation reaching the upper atmosphere will increase (depending
on albedo / solar heating feedbacks), which will change the equilibrium
temperature of the upper atmopshere again.
In the Antarctic, the increased white
albedo at the surface causes the air
temperature to increase
on cloudy days.
The exposed open water caused by the wind divergence may absorb some additional sunlight and melt more ice than usual over the next few weeks (
temperature -
albedo feedback)[related NASA animation], but given that the sun is well
on its way to setting for the winter, I think this effect will be fairly minimal.
Global average
temperature is lower during glacial periods for two primary reasons: 1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth surface was more reflective, due to the presence of lots of ice and snow
on land, and lots more sea ice than today (that is, the
albedo was higher).
Polar amplification due to CO2 is based
on warming melting ice that lowers
albedo and thus raises
temperatures.
Typical
temperature reconstructions for the late Pliocene however [see one at the top of this story - 3.3 - 3.0 Ma] already show an Earth in which a warmer climatic state is indeed [through for instance ice
albedo feedbacks] relatively strong around the poles, and (
on average) weaker around the equator, exactly the pattern that is monitored under the current climate warming.
In this new study, the researchers showed that increasing the
albedo of a 1m2 surface by 0.01 would have the same effect
on global
temperature, over the next 80 years, as decreasing emissions by around 7 kg of CO2.
On the other hand, the Arctic sea ice
albedo reduction does contribute significantly to polar amplification of globally averaged
temperature changes.
Six Chinese scientists used remotely - sensed imaging data, including leaf area index (LAI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an enhanced vegetation index (EVI), gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP), coupled with other data (
temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration,
albedo and wind) over the period 2003 to 2014 to analyze the effects of a wind farm
on summer vegetative growth in a region of northern China.
Moreover, CDR techniques can affect
temperatures via SRM mechanisms too: afforestation — at least in higher latitudes — reduces
albedo, producing offsetting warming, while OIF releases dimethyl sulphides which could have a significant impact
on temperatures by reflecting incoming sunlight (analogous to, if more short - lived, than the effect of sulphates in the stratosphere).
This is also based
on the most modest affect observed
on global
temperatures cloud
albedo has.
«Here we quantify the direct climate effects of sugar - cane expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado,
on the basis of maps of recent sugar - cane expansion and natural - vegetation clearance combined with remotely sensed
temperature,
albedo and evapotranspiration over a 1.9 million km2 area.
This has a huge influence
on the Svalbard
temperatures — far more than a tiny effect from the increased
albedo at the airport.
To date, while various effects and feedbacks constrain the certainty placed
on recent and projected climate change (EG,
albedo change, the response of water vapour, various future emissions scenarios etc), it is virtually certain that CO2 increases from human industry have reversed and will continue to reverse the downward trend in global
temperatures that should be expected in the current phase of the Milankovitch cycle.
It's used
on p. 116 where we read «Earth's
albedo is
on the order of.3, leading to a blackbody
temperature of 255K.
This is consistent with other recent work that hypothesizes that increase of melting rates of Arctic sea ice may be as much due to Chinese black carbon falling
on the ice (and thereby decreasing its
albedo and increasing solar heating) than from rising global
temperatures.
But unless the
albedo changes quite a lot there's not usually much effect
on average
temperatures.
Based
on the insolation received by the Earth, allowing for its estimated
albedo and some internal core heat, the blackbody
temperature of the Earth is 254.3 K -LRB--18.8 °C).
If the Earth's true emission
temperature (which occurs somewhere at altitude in the troposphere) is less than the 255 K predicted by theory (assuming an
albedo 0.306), then the Planck parameter may well be considerably less than the IPCC's value, in which event
on this ground alone climate sensitivity may be well below its central estimate of 3.26 K per CO2 doubling.
Likewise, the effects
on average global
temperature and climate of rapidly diminishing
albedo evidenced by loss of Arctic sea ice and retreating glaciers, is not accurately known.
As the CO2 and CH4 (methane) level goes up, H2O vapour in the atmosphere falls which — because H2O is 30 times more important than CO2 as a «greenhouse gas» offsets the effect of CO2
on temperature, while cloud cover and
albedo increases because warmed moist air rises to form clouds, further cooling the world.
We can make good estimates of global
temperature so can estimate planck radiation (
on global level), good estimates of
albedo from ice extent, reasonable estimates of evaporation and convection from
temperature contraints, now try closing that surface budget with GHG.
Assuming an
albedo other than zero will change the
temperatures, but will not change the general conclusions
on how the steel greenhouse works.».
The reason why I think it's wrong is that in her calculation of ESS she takes the radiative forcing caused by
albedo changes (resulting from the massive change in ice coverage between a glacial and interglacial state) and assumes it to be a feedback
on the CO2 induced
temperature - change.
1) In reality both the changes in
albedo (reflectivity) and CO2 concentration are feedbacks
on the orbital forcing, and the relation in the one direction (a change in earth's orbit causing a
temperature change which in turn causes
albedo and CO2 levels to change) is not necessarily the same as the relation in the reverse direction, as is currently happening with human - induced increases in CO2.
My Bearded dragon changes
albedo based
on radiation exposure.The same TSI calculation used to derive the 0.07 degrees would clearly give the wrong answer
on the average
temperature of my lizard.
Based
on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow
albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air
temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
The net impact
on temperature attributed to each different forcing, solar, ghg (co2, methane), volcanic, aerosol,
albedo whatever are based
on historical temp data and checked for accuracy against models yes?
captd, the surface
temperature in the models is a free variable that depends
on things like the cloudiness of the model and surface
albedos.
We see a surface
temperature of venus that is higher than expected if we used the same methodology for
albedo as used
on earth.
The number usually calculated in modern textbooks for the
temperature without an atmosphere, -18 °C, is based
on our planet's present «
albedo,» that is, the amount of sunlight it reflects.
This is enough to raise the surface
temperature quite a bit (the exact value depends
on what assumptions you make about emissivity &
albedo).
Further, we suggest that the stability of sea level during the Holocene is a consequence of the fact that global
temperature remained just below the level required to initiate the «
albedo flip» mechanism
on Greenland and West Antarctica.
what I find fascinating is that
albedo has no effect
on the
temperature comparison between earth and venus, which accounts fully for the missing 33K in Ira's analysis.
And I think you hit the nail
on the head with: «5) Once we scientifically - oriented Skeptics accept the reality of the Atmospheric «greenhouse effect» we are, IMHO, better positioned to question the much larger issues which are: a) HOW MUCH does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce
albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean
temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?»
If
albedo is not what we assume it to be, for reasons that are apparent
on venus, then the problem is not where is the missing 33K, but rather why
temperatures are not hotter than they are.
The explanations they give for the warm winters are weak or wrong, blaming warmer
temperatures on a lack of snow cover (more
albedo), roller coaster
temperatures and «normals», often ending their broadcasts with with something like... this is the way it's supposed to be.
The Berkeley Lab study found that global land surface
temperature decreased by a modest amount — an average of roughly 0.01 degrees Celsius, based
on an
albedo increase of.003 averaged over all global land surfaces.