My problem is that whilst the surface
temperature over land changes considerably between day and night the temperature I would have thought that at higher altitudes it would be more constant.
Remember that the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land, and
temperatures over land change relatively quickly in response to a radiative forcing.
Not exact matches
Land - use
changes over the past 250 years in Europe have been huge, yet, they only caused a relatively small
temperature increase, equal to roughly 6 % of the warming produced by global fossil fuel burning, Naudts noted.
They found that the business - as - usual scenario comes with large climate
changes the world
over and would create entirely new patterns of
temperature and precipitation for 12 to 39 percent of Earth's
land area.
The biggest
temperature changes were projected to occur
over needleleaf forests, tundra and agricultural
land used to grow crops.
The forcing
over the last 150 years is around 1.6 W / m2 (including cooling effects from aerosols and
land use
change) but the climate is not (yet) in equilibirum, and so the full
temperature response has not been acheived.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005
over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe, global
land area and the global ocean (lower graphs).
And finally, current theories based on greenhouse gas increases,
changes in solar, volcanic, ozone,
land use and aerosol forcing do a pretty good job of explaining the
temperature changes over the 20th Century.
There are some various proposed mechanisms to explain this that involve the surface energy balance (e.g., less coupling between the ground
temperature and lower air
temperature over land because of less potential for evaporation), and also lapse rate differences
over ocean and
land (see Joshi et al 2008, Climate Dynamics), as well as vegetation or cloud
changes.
The climate in most places has undergone minor
changes over the past 200 years, and the
land - based surface
temperature record of the past 100 years exhibits warming trends in many places.
In addition, since the global surface
temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo
changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover,
land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere /
land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor
over the short term is difficult to impossible.
All of the discussion about accelerating increases in
temperature that I've read
over the last couple of years pin the effect on feedbacks.Particularly
changes in the
land.
Thus, small
changes of global average air
temperature are associated with very large
changes in some regions, particularly
over land, at mid - to high latitudes, in mountain regions.
The paper in Nature Climate
Change, «
Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment
over northern
lands,» pulls together a wide array of research, including the work by Bruce Forbes of the University of Lapland last year, on what I called «pop - up forests» — patches of rapidly - growing tundra shrubs.
«One of the most significant signals in the thermometer - observed
temperature record since 1900 is the decrease in the diurnal
temperature range
over land, largely due to warming of the minimum
temperatures... Climate models have in general not replicated the
change in diurnal
temperature range well.
Temperature change from climate models, including that reported in 1988 (12), usually refers to temperature of surface air over both land
Temperature change from climate models, including that reported in 1988 (12), usually refers to
temperature of surface air over both land
temperature of surface air
over both
land and ocean.
By comparing modelled and observed
changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface
temperature, the
land - ocean
temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in
temperature over land and the mean meridional
temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
Diurnal
temperature range (DTR) has decreased
over land by about 0.4 °C
over the last 50 years, with most of that
change occurring prior to 1980 (Section 3.2.2.1).
Figure 1 shows the
change in the world's air
temperature averaged
over all the
land and ocean between 1975 and 2008.
The 2009 State of the Climate Report of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate
change is real because of rising surface air
temperatures since 1880
over land and the ocean, ocean acidification, sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity, ocean heat content increasing, sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreasing, and so many other lines of evidence.
That
land changes over this period may have slightly increased
temperature, and has had regional affects upon climate, and multitude undefined possible effects.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental thermometer - based
land surface
temperature observations, such as satellite - derived
temperature trend estimates
over land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
Running 60 - month averages of European air
temperature at a height of two metres
over land (left - hand axis) according to different datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate
Change Service, ECMWF); GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
-- Increased urbanization and
land use
changes since WWII as a possible partial cause of warming of global surface
temperature over land.
Deriving a reliable global
temperature from the instrument data is not easy because the instruments are not evenly distributed across the planet, the hardware and observing locations have
changed over the years, and there has been extensive
land use
change (such as urbanization) around some of the sites.
The climate in most places has undergone minor
changes over the past 200 years, and the
land - based surface
temperature record of the past 100 years exhibits warming trends in many places.
Drought
changes the balance between latent and sensible heat
over land surfaces — increasing
temperature readings.
The authors offered an example of the challenges faced in this undertaking: though
changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can be predicted, this did not necessarily translate to predictable
temperature changes over land.
But matters are greatly complicated by atmospheric circulation patterns, cyclic
changes in
temperatures over the oceans, and the shapes of
land masses.
Of course it's that huge heat capacity that lets the oceans hold the heat, but the biggest
temperature changes are
over land.
The earth's average
temperature has jumped by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit)
over the last century due to burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and other
land - use
changes that emit greenhouse gases.
Low clouds are normally closely coupled to the surface and
over land can be significantly
changed by modifications of surface
temperature or moisture resulting from
changes in
land properties.
This is close to the warming of 1.09 °C (0.86 — 1.31 °C) observed in global mean
land temperatures over the period 1951 — 2010, which, in contrast to China's recorded
temperature change, is only weakly affected by urban warming influences.
Over millennia, marine life have endured and responded to CO2 levels well beyond anything projected, and
temperature changes that put coral reefs and tropical plants closer to the poles or had much of our
land covered by ice more than a mile thick.
Along with increasing
temperatures over all regions of the U.S., the pattern of precipitation
change is one of general increases at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics
over land.
Finds that average daytime surface
temperature in the Jambi province increased by 1.05 °C
over the last 16 years, which followed the trend of observed
land cover
changes and exceeded the effects of climate warming
The Sedlacek and Knutti paper is only about oceanic
temperatures, not the
land record, it shows that the models do a poor job matching observed oceanic
changes over the 20th century when relying only on natural forcing, and that if the natural - only runs are scaled to have an overall trend that matches the observations, the models predict a more heterogeneous distribution of trends than was observed.
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We conclude that the most valid model of the spatial pattern of trends in
land surface
temperature records
over 1979 — 2002 requires a combination of the processes represented in some GCMs and certain socioeconomic measures that capture data quality variations and
changes to the
land surface.
Wardle and Smith (2004) argued that the upward rainfall trend is consistent with the upward trend in
land surface
temperatures that has been observed in the south of the continent, independent of
changes over the oceans.
Finds that the feedback for which the evidence of ongoing
changes is most compelling is the surface albedo -
temperature feedback, which is amplifying
temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn — winter)
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the
temperature trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data» in those trends (what the earth's
temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random
changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate
change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (UHI increases in the
temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter
temperatures, differences in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice
land records, extrapolated
land records
over hundreds of km, surface
temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias
changes in the information.)
Projected
changes for the 21st century
over land and in mid and high latitudes will be larger than the projected
change in the global average
temperature, so again, past experience will provide little guidance for the future.
Empirical data and climate models also concur that surface
temperature change is amplified
over land areas, which tends to make
temperature change at the site of deep water an underestimate of the global
temperature.
Over the ocean, surface temperature, which varies slowly, is a major controlling factor, while over land, coupled effects of surface temperature and available soil moisture, which can change relatively quickly, are import
Over the ocean, surface
temperature, which varies slowly, is a major controlling factor, while
over land, coupled effects of surface temperature and available soil moisture, which can change relatively quickly, are import
over land, coupled effects of surface
temperature and available soil moisture, which can
change relatively quickly, are important.
In the final analysis we are arguing about a
temperature record made by volunteers with little oversight
over many generations on continents where a truly massive amount of
land use
change due to industrialization and agriculture and where said
land mass is but a small fraction of the globe's surface one might wonder why we bother with it.
In general, the pattern of
change in return values for 20 - year extreme
temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases
over oceans and larger increases
over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
The same should be true for climate
change we should evaluate the
changes in
temperature (not anomalies)
over time at the same stations and present the data as a spaghetti graph showing any differing trends and not assume that regional or climates in gridded areas are the same — which they are not as is obvious from the climate zones that exist or microclimates due to
changes in precipitation,
land use etc..
A similar magnitude forcing only
over land would produce much lower
temperature change.
Weathering may depend on properties like
temperature, pCO2,
land ice abrasion, and sea level
change but has been suggested to be stable
over glacial − interglacial cycles (54).