And another aspect is the rising
temperature over last century or so, has not caused increase in hottest days in the world - or hottest place and day in world was set in 1912.
Independent evidence shows that the attribution to humans of the large signal, 1ºC rise in Earth's global average surface
temperature over the last century is erroneous, and confirms the non-existence of AGW.
Of course, as the chart below shows, no matter which baseline we use it's clear there's been a drastic rise in global
temperature over the last century.
Or part of idea that we have had rise of about.8 C in global
temperature over last century or so is inaccurate.
«The adjustments make no significant difference to the obvious upward trend in global average
temperature over the last century,» he said.
Our formula gives near the same variability of the temperature / CO2 relationship for yearly variations, but only a few ppmv increase in CO2, due to the slight (0.6 °C) rise in
temperature over the last century.
Given the one percent rise of
temperature over the last century is an «average», and the Arctic and Antarctic regions are now warming faster, purportedly by up to eleven degrees, there must be areas that are now cooler.
Given the one percent rise of
temperature over the last century is an «average», and the Arctic and Antarctic regions are now warming faster, purportedly by up to eleven degrees, there must be areas that are now cooler.
I think your efforts are very helpful in understanding the evolution of sea surface
temperatures over the last century, especially the causal link between ENSO and the AMO, since this explains why there is a cyclical appearance in the temperature record which is closely correlated with the AMO index.
Delayed oscillator has put his 2 cents in, and extracted summer
temperatures over the last century around the Yamal grid from the CRUTEM3 database.
The IPCC indicated that the long - term rise in global
temperatures over the last century could be explained when the influence of CO2 and other human factors were introduced into the models.
The change in hot and cold extreme
temperatures over the last century is consistently characterised by both adjusted and unadjusted data maintained by the Bureau.
Not exact matches
once more: look at the data and then deduce your own hypothesis to explain the glaringly sharp spike on the right side of the x / y chart which plots global
temperature trends
over the
last 2
centuries.
Australia has already seen its average
temperatures increase more than 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit
over that of the
last century, according to data from CSIRO, Australia's national scientific agency, and the Bureau of Meteorology.
«This underscores that large, sustained changes in global
temperature like those observed
over the
last century require drivers such as increased greenhouse gas concentrations,» said lead author Patrick Brown, a PhD student at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment.
Temperatures in the upper 700 meters of the ocean rose
over the
last two decades of the 20th
century before flattening out in 2003.
It's the ocean «These small global
temperature increases of the
last 25 years and
over the
last century are likely natural changes that the globe has seen many times in the past.
Third, using a «semi-empirical» statistical model calibrated to the relationship between
temperature and global sea - level change
over the
last 2000 years, we find that, in alternative histories in which the 20th
century did not exceed the average
temperature over 500-1800 CE, global sea - level rise in the 20th
century would (with > 95 % probability) have been less than 51 % of its observed value.
Variations in CO2
over the
last 420 kyr broadly followed antarctic
temperature, typically by several
centuries to a millennium (Mudelsee, 2001).
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface
temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly
over the
last two
centuries.
While periods of increased and decreased warming exist
over the 132 - year period, the linear rate is still ~ 0.6 C /
century, and the most recent monthly GISS values fall right on the linear trend (the linear trend value for the Feb. 2012
temperature anomaly is +0.38 C, while the
last two months have been +0.35 and +0.40 C.)
Our examination does suggest that a slight modification to the original Mann et al. reconstruction is justfiable for the first half of the 15th
century (∼ +0.05 — 0.10 º), which leaves entirely unaltered the primary conclusion of Mann et al. (as well as many other reconstructions) that both the 20th
century upward trend and high late - 20th
century hemispheric surface
temperatures are anomalous
over at least the
last 600 years.
There are quite a few reasons to believe that the surface
temperature record — which shows a warming of approximately 0.6 ° -0.8 °C
over the
last century (depending on precisely how the warming trend is defined)-- is essentially uncontaminated by the effects of urban growth and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.
Our primary conclusions are based on a comparison of the longer term paleotemperature changes from our reconstruction with the well - documented
temperature changes that have occurred
over the
last century, as documented by the instrumental record.
A recent video of him being interviewed by Brit Hume of Fox News had Michaels asserting that while global warming was real we could expect the average rate of
temperature increase
over the
last century to remain flat
over the next
century, and so no big deal.
The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th
century forcings are able to match the surface air
temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content
over the
last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
Further, let's agree that this will on average cause more precipitation due to increased evaporation at these higher
temperatures (the best data I have seen say that the precipitation trend
over the continental US — where we have the best long term records — is up 5 - 10 %
over the
last century).
I also pointed you to data for Arctic
temperature which shows that it has warmed considerably
over just the
last decade, so that presently the Arctic is far warmer than it ever was in the 20th
century.
Here is just one sceptical response to Nordhaus: 1) «The finding that global
temperatures are rising
over the
last century - plus is one of the most robust findings of climate science and statistics.»
It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region's recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially
over the
last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal
temperature variability can also apply to observed
century - long trends.
For the station nearest my home, the range (max less min) in annual average
temperature for the past
century is just 3.3 C. Can't say whether 1C warming matters in any tangible way, at this particular spot, but it's certainly large compared to the variation observed
over the
last century.
It appears that Ghil, and others specifically warn against the use of MEM and
temperature data: «Instrumental
temperature data
over the
last few
centuries do not seem, for instance, to determine sufficiently well the behavior of global or local
temperatures to permit a reliable climate forecast on the decadal timescale by this SSA - MEM method.»
January
temperatures are one of the best predictors of urban success
over the
last half -
century, with colder climes losing out — and Buffalo isn't just cold during the winter: blizzards regularly shut the city down completely.
Even if their data analysis is excluded, it does not alter the findings that were reported in the 2007 I.P.C.C. report with respect to the surface
temperature trends, since these other analyses provide a redundant check of their analyses
over the
last century.
Since the
temperature rises took place
over the
last three
centuries, your explanation of the «committment to extinction» and how it will take time for the extinctions to actually happen simply doesn't apply.
Oh sure Democrats are singing from the rafters about Syria being climate driven BUT Syria was caused by their failed policies, not some fucking aye - rab fleeing their home because the
temperature has increased about.251 degree
over the
last century!
The «warming hole» is a region
over the North Atlantic, just south of Greenland, where long - term
temperature maps suggest air
temperatures have been cooling slightly
over the
last century, rather than warming like most of the rest of the world.
Figure 3: Global surface
temperature change
over the
last five
centuries from boreholes (thick red line).
«The global
temperature has been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5 °C per
century since the end of the little ice age in the 1700s (when the Thames River would freeze
over every winter; the
last time it froze
over was 1804)...
This is because, from the discussion above, we would expect to see sea level changes, since global
temperatures do seem to have changed
over the
last century (whether the
temperature trends are man - made or natural in origin).
Although each of the
temperature reconstructions are different (due to differing calibration methods and data used), they all show some similar patterns of
temperature change
over the
last several
centuries.
Global surface
temperatures increased about 1 °C
over the
last century and a half.
He takes it as a proven given that
temperature sensitivity to CO2 will be high,
over ten degrees F for the likely CO2 increases we will see in the next
century, which puts his «proven» climate sensitivity number higher than the range even in the
last IPCC report.
Pekka, Humlum heresy etc Point of Information: Ignoring for the moment the various explanations offered, is it or is it not the case that CO2 (from whatever source) lags
temperature trends by ~ 10 months
over the
last century or so?
Over the
last century, global average
temperature has increased by more than 1 °F (0.7 °C).
manacker, the 60 - year smoothed curve is robust
over the
last century or so, and, I would suggest, a good predictor of what future smoothed
temperatures would look like if extrapolated.
Several tweets led me to look at an article in the Guardian, entitled Climate change: IPCC cites global
temperature rise
over the
last century.
That is that the range of estimated
temperatures for the earth
over, say, the
last 100,000 years, greatly dominates both the observed changes supposedly caused by CO2
over the
last 150 years and the changes projected by the CAGW believers by the end of this
century.
HadCRUT is the IPCC's gold - standard for measuring global
temperatures -
over last 15 years (180 months) the globe has cooled with a -0.24 C per
century trend, not warmed as predicted
According to the EPA, winter
temperatures have gone up by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius)
over the
last half
century.