Not exact matches
The researchers studied
temperature measurements
over the last 150 years, ice core data from Greenland from the interglacial period 12,000 years ago, for the ice age 120,000 years ago, ice core data from Antarctica, which goes back 800,000 years,
as well
as data from
ocean sediment cores going back 5 million years.
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming
over the past century, with
temperatures increasing about twice
as rapidly
over land
as over the
oceans.
Southern
Ocean seafloor water
temperatures are projected to warm by an average of 0.4 °C
over this century with some areas possibly increasing by
as much
as 2 °C.
El Niño thus leaves its mark on the Quelccaya ice cap
as a chemical signature (especially in oxygen isotopes) indicating sea surface
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean over much of the past 1,800 years.
Another principal investigator for the project, Laura Pan, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., believes storm clusters
over this area of the Pacific are likely to influence climate in new ways, especially
as the warm
ocean temperatures (which feed the storms and chimney) continue to heat up and atmospheric patterns continue to evolve.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth's atmosphere in May was
over the northern Pacific
Ocean, where
temperatures were
as much
as 2.08 C (about 3.74 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.
However, for the globe
as a whole, surface air
temperatures over land have risen at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern Hemisphere.
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal
as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially
over Europe.
The observed and projected rates of increase in freshwater runoff could potentially disrupt
ocean circulation if global
temperatures rise by 3 to 4 °C
over this century
as forecast by the IPCC 2001 report.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm
as fast
as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005
over the Earth's continents,
as well
as the entire globe, global land area and the global
ocean (lower graphs).
There are some various proposed mechanisms to explain this that involve the surface energy balance (e.g., less coupling between the ground
temperature and lower air
temperature over land because of less potential for evaporation), and also lapse rate differences
over ocean and land (see Joshi et al 2008, Climate Dynamics),
as well
as vegetation or cloud changes.
Cooling sea - surface
temperatures over the tropical Pacific
Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why global average
temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even
as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
Arctic sea ice extent continued a rapid retreat through the first two weeks of July
as a high pressure cell moved
over the central Arctic
Ocean, bringing higher
temperatures.
A sea breeze, which is caused by the
temperature and pressure difference between warm areas inland and the cool air
over the
ocean, often develops on warm summer days
as well, increasing the on - shore flow pattern and maintaining a constant flow of marine stratus clouds onto the coastal areas.
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere
over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long graph of global
temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific
Ocean known
as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface
temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (
as a proxy for
ocean heat content), departing from the average value
over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
«The combined average
temperature over global land and
ocean surfaces tied with 2010
as the highest on record for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century average.»
# 192 «For example a strengthening of wind
over some oceanic region http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~matthew/nclimate2106-incl-SI.pdf then would increase the heat flow atmosphere - >
ocean, leading to lower (dynamic) equilibrium
temperature in the atmosphere which of course occurs very fast,
as the thermal mass of the atmosphere is very low compared to the net energy throughput.»
Now since relative humidity remains roughly constant at the
ocean surface and the air's capacity to hold water increases with
temperature, relative humidity will actually decrease
over land, particularly
as one enters the continental interiors.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm
as fast
as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.
However their predictions are about much more than just the average near - surface air
temperature, they are mainly focused on how heat mixes into the
ocean and how that affects the rise in surface
temperature as CO2 is doubled
over 100 years.
IMHO, the increase in speed of the Hadley / Walker cells may be the result of higher
ocean temperatures (or
temperature differences
over long distances), not the origin (or to a lesser extent,
as less clouds lead to some extra insolation, thus warming).
You may now understand why global
temperature, i.e.
ocean heat content, shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2
over the last 800,000 years —
as shown in the ice core records.
Air - water heat flux may not significantly affect the
temperature of the
ocean, but it does affect the
temperature of the atmosphere —
as in the air
over Europe is warmed by the North Atlantic Drift.
1) It seems to me that the key mechanism for any impact must be the changes that increased arctic
ocean temperatures will impose on the atmospheric circulation feature known
as the Polar Cell, and via this on the Ferrel cell which sits
over the mid latitudes.
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global
temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep
ocean to come into balance), and variations
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such
as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.
The HadCRUT4 dataset, compiled from many thousands of
temperature measurements taken across the globe, from all continents and all
oceans, is used to estimate global
temperature, shows that 2017 was 0.99 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, taken
as the average
over the period 1850 - 1900, and 0.38 ± 0.1 °C above the 1981 - 2010 average.
Though hurricanes strenthen when moving
over warmer water, this is merely due to the fact that the horizontal
temperature gradient of the atmosphere is not
as steep, i.e. the
temperature differential between the water and the atmosphere increases
as the storm hits tropical waters; it is not the
ocean temperature per se that drives the hurricane.
However,
as the
ocean's surface
temperature increases
over time from the effects of climate change, more and more heat is released into the atmosphere.
Verify using data collected only
over the 1/3 of the planet that is covered with land strikes me
as odd, particularly because we expect the land
temperatures to rise faster than
ocean temperatures.
During times of warmth, the
ocean water levels rise
as atmospheric moisture increases but at a rate decelerating when atmospheric
temperatures over oceans approach say 33 C.
Notably, by studying the clouds
over a limited region of the atmosphere
over the eastern Pacific
Ocean,
as well
as over nearby land masses, the team at the university's International Pacific Research Centre have declared themselves firmly in the latter camp, warning that,
as temperatures continue to creep steadily upwards
over the next 100 years, cloud cover will become thinner and more - sparse, thereby serving to exacerbate the problem.
Beck interpretes the latter
as the direct influence of seawater
temperatures, but the measurements near the floating ice border were just average, not the lowest... Modern measurements give less than 10 ppmv difference
over the seas from the coldest
oceans to the tropics, including a repeat of the trips that Buch made.
In your case, the ice cores must be wrong, in my case, there is no problem with ice core CO2 (neither with historical CO2 levels
over the
oceans),
as the 0.3 K
temperature increase in the period 1900 - 1950 causes an increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed increase is due to human emissions.
That reduces the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere somewhat, but
as there is still an increase, the
oceans are more important
as temperature / CO2 regulator on medium term, while vegetation is faster on very short term (
over the seasons CO2 goes down with
temperature,
over a year, CO2 goes up with
temperature).
Because of these restraints the
oceans locally can release only a small part of the total dissolved carbon dioxide and, more importantly, when averaged
over a year the amount released equals the amount dissolved, i.e. there is not net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from the
oceans so long
as the
temperature averaged
over a year remains constant from year to year.
You just need to add that more zonal jets when the sun is active widen the subtropical high pressure cells and allow more energy into the
oceans to skew Enso in favour of El Nino
over and above the basic 60 year periodicity so
as to get the observed millennial climate cycling.and the
temperature stepping from one PDO positive or negative phase to the next.
Of course, this is not true of mean
ocean heat capacity nor the world's mean
temperature, however it may be substantial true
over a 5 x 5 degree section of
ocean or even a region
as large
as a single
ocean basin.
While the warming of average global surface
temperatures has slowed (though not nearly
as much
as previously believed), the overall amount of heat accumulated by the global climate has not, with
over 90 percent being absorbed by the
oceans.
From his blog, post # 11: «if you fix the
temperature,
as over the
ocean here, you have to let the flux adjust to be consistent with that
temperature — if you fix the flux (which is effectively zero
over land) you have to let the
temperature adjust to be consistent with that flux.»
The deep meaning in Global
Temperature for me is the wondrous observation that, in order for life to evolve on planet earth,
over four billion years, it seems
as if we have never been either completely ice - free or without some open water across the
oceans.
If there has been only a fairly small change in
ocean heat flux
over the last century and the ratio of global increase in surface
temperature to increase in forcing is low (
as the evidence certainly suggests), then it follows that climate sensitivity is low — perhaps of the order of 1.5 C.
With a rise in the overall
temperature of the
ocean,
ocean - borne storms such
as tropical storms and hurricanes, which get their fierce and destructive energy from the warm waters they pass
over, could increase in force.
I.e. solar activity was high in most of the 20th centiry and then peaked in about 1985, together with a 20 - 30 year heat lag (since it remained high until 1996
as well), and
oceans take a few decades to equilbrate, (the same
as summer takes about 6 weeks to reach maximum
temperature after the summer solstice, and every day it takes a few hours after noon to reach maximum
temperature), so the earth has taken a few decades to reach maximum
temperature after the long high in solar activity during the 20th century, and will now go down in
temperature over the next few decades, with now both a negative PDO, and reduced solar activity.
Dessler (2011) used observational data (such
as surface
temperature measurements and ARGO
ocean temperature) to estimate and corroborate these values, and found that the heating of the climate system through
ocean heat transport was 20 times larger than TOA energy flux changes due to cloud cover
over the period in question.
Over short periods of time natural variability such
as from ENSO for example, can create short term effects that run contrary to the longer term trend of increasing
ocean heat content and higher tropospheric
temperatures.
As evident in the figures the near surface air temperatures are actually warmer over the Arctic Ocean (by over 1 °C in large areas) when the sea ice absorbs solar radiation and transfers some of this energy as sensible heat back into the atmospher
As evident in the figures the near surface air
temperatures are actually warmer
over the Arctic
Ocean (by
over 1 °C in large areas) when the sea ice absorbs solar radiation and transfers some of this energy
as sensible heat back into the atmospher
as sensible heat back into the atmosphere.
Over the generally - recognised ARGO period (2004/2005 to present) spatial variation in subsurface
ocean temperature change has been huge,
as evidenced by altimeter SLR trend maps.
It should come
as no surprise that the models did overestimate the warming of the sea surface
temperatures of the tropical
oceans over the past 30 years.