It finds that global
temperatures over the past decade have «continued to rise rapidly,» despite large year - to - year fluctuations associated with the tropical El Niño — La Niña cycles.
As for the interpretation of the TOA fluxes and
temperatures over the past decade, this is a fascinating problem that I expect to come back to eventually in other posts.
The point is that focusing on
temperatures over the past decade (as the fake skeptics constantly do) is pointless to begin with, and that we should be examining longer, statistically significant trends.
The data still reflected a stalling of global
temperatures over the past decade, and the study's attempt to rule out one of the main concerns sceptics have about the way temperature data is recorded appear to have some serious shortcomings.
Some amount (though certainly not all) of the flattening of
temperatures over the past decade has certainly been caused by the rapid increase in industrial activity in Asia, fueled greatly by the burning of coal and a measured increase in anthropogenic aerosols.
Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer.5 The hottest days and nights have become hotter and more frequent.6 7 In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot summertime temperatures has increased 50 - fold.8 Over the contiguous United States, new record high
temperatures over the past decade have consistently outnumbered new record lows by a ratio of 2:1.9 In 2012, the ratio for the year through June 18 stands at more than 9:1.10 Though this ratio is not expected to remain at that level for the rest of the year, it illustrates how unusual 2012 has been, and how these types of extremes are becoming more likely.
are quite adamant in stating that there has been nothing resembling a flatlining of global mean
temperature over the past decade
bender, the climate scientists and climate modelers who work for the same organization I do are quite adamant in stating that there has been nothing resembling a flatlining of global mean
temperature over the past decade.
The decadal - scale variability reflected in the temperature reconstruction from tree rings may well be superimposed over this warmer baseline, but the warmth still would not likely match the observed average maximum
temperatures over the past decade (17.54 °C mean maximum average for 1999 — 2008, Fort Valley, AZ, Western Regional Climate Center)(Table S1).
Figure 2 is GISS's estimate of
temperatures over the past decade.
Not exact matches
These numbers compare with 69 % of all people surveyed who «believe there is solid evidence that the average
temperature on Earth has been getting warmer
over the
past few
decades» and 57 % who «believe humans and other living things evolved
over time.»
To be more specific, the models project that
over the next 20 years, for a range of plausible emissions, the global
temperature will increase at an average rate of about 0.2 degree C per
decade, close to the observed rate
over the
past 30 years.
Meanwhile, average air
temperatures in the region rose 1.5 °C
over the
past 5
decades, nearly twice the global average.
The strength and path of the North Atlantic jet stream and the Greenland blocking phenomena appear to be influenced by increasing
temperatures in the Arctic which have averaged at least twice the global warming rate
over the
past two
decades, suggesting that those marked changes may be a key factor affecting extreme weather conditions
over the UK, although an Arctic connection may not occur each year.
Over the
past two
decades (from 1995 to 2014), Vermont has experienced the highest winter
temperatures observed in the historical record, according to the National Climate Assessment Summary for Vermont.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change flagged an odd phenomenon: Atmospheric
temperature data collected
over the
past few
decades suggested that global warming had slowed down beginning around 1998.
A team of researchers from the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Society found that
over the
past 166 years, the country's average monthly
temperatures have increased by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a 0.14 C change per
decade.
Both theories hinge on the hotter, drier
temperatures experienced in the West
over the
past two
decades, conditions expected to deepen under climate change.
In the
past decade, paleoclimatologists have reconstructed a record of climate change
over the last millennium by consulting historical documents and examining indicators of
temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice cores and coral skeletons.
«
Over the
past several
decades, we've seen
temperatures warming and carbon dioxide increasing, and our study found that this tropical forest has responded to that increase by producing more flowers.»
«Some fungal outbreaks
over the
past couple of
decades, such as Dothistroma needle blight, could likely have been anticipated by tracking how
temperature and precipitation were changing together,» said Mahony, who has worked as a forester in British Columbia for 10 years and has witnessed the impacts of climate change on the ground.
They found that AP increased faster than air
temperature (AT)
over land in the
past few
decades, especially in the low latitude areas, and the rise is expected to continue in the future.
While the study suggests
past surges in
temperature have boosted conflicts, it doesn't necessarily follow that steady warming due to climate change
over the coming
decades will have the same effect.
If this rapid warming continues, it could mean the end of the so - called slowdown — the period
over the
past decade or so when global surface
temperatures increased less rapidly than before.
Historical records show
temperatures have typically fluctuated up or down by about 0.2 °F per
decade over the
past 1,000 years.
This means that if the GCR - warming hypothesis is correct, this increase in GCRs should actually be causing global cooling
over the
past five
decades, and particularly cold
temperatures in recent years.
Over the
past 30 years, the agency said, October
temperatures have been rising by 0.65 °F (0.43 °C) per
decade, faster than any other month except September.
Temperature during the winter as a whole have generally decreased
over the
past two
decades, likely as a result of climate change, but the sensitivity of ozone loss to the exact timing of March warming events makes ozone depletion a much more variable quantity.
Ocean
temperatures have been rising about 0.12 degrees Celsius per
decade on average
over the
past 50 years.
Ocean
temperatures experience interannual variability and
over the
past 3
decades of global warming have had several short periods of cooling.
Tropical Andes
temperature increased at a rate of at least.1 degrees C per
decade since 1939, and the rate has more than tripled
over the
past 25 years.
Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat, global average surface
temperature record
over the
past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.
Surface
temperature changes
over the
past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for
over a
decade now.1, 2
If one plots the records from GISS, HADCru, RSS and UAH; GISS is the outlier, and three of the four primary global
temperature measuring systems show a decrease
over the most recent six years and a downward trend
over the
past decade; not that this establishes a significant trend yet.
The above model results have significant implications because the observed air -
temperature trend
over the elevated Himalayas has accelerated to between 0.15 — 0.3 K per decade18 during the
past several
decades.
On a related issue — the
temperature in Almeria, Spain (southeast corner), which has the world's greatest concentration of greenhouses, with reflective roofs (seen from space), the
temperature is said to have dropped 0.3 C
over the
past few
decades, while in the rest of Spain, it has risen 0.6 C.
In 2005, leading hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel (MIT) published an analysis showing that the power of Atlantic hurricanes has strongly increased
over the
past decades, in step with
temperature.
Preliminary calculations * show that surface
temperatures ** averaged
over the globe in 2004 were the fourth highest (and the
past decade was the warmest) since measurements began in 1861.
Research to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows that
over the
past decade the number of record hot days has been double the number of record cold days: The research was carried out by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, The Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and examined
temperature records going back to the 1950s.
Despite its fundamental problems, Spencer's internal variability hypothesis was probably the best alternative presented to this point, and Dessler drove another nail into its coffin by demonstrating what a small effect clouds have had on global
temperature changes
over the
past decade.
Thus, the decadal increase in
temperature has been more like.17 to.20 degrees per
decade, which is unprecedented perhaps
over the
past 100,000 years.
Only the natural warming of the 2015 - 2016 El Nino has caused any increase in
temperature trend
over the
past 2
decades.
According to the Pew Research Center: «Nearly seven - in - ten (69 %)[Americans] say there is solid evidence that the earth's average
temperature has been getting warmer
over the
past few
decades, up six points since November 2011 and 12 points since 2009.»
However,
over the
past decade, the warming of surface air
temperatures has slowed.
Yes, if something is amiss here, I would place my bet on the methodology behind the finding that the earth» s
temperature has not risen significantly
over the
past decade.
Your formula implies that about half the increase in CO2 (the 0.95 constant)
over the
past decades is a constant (whatever the cause), and the other halve is caused by the overall
temperature increase vs. a zero level.
In March 2009, Michaels, under the auspices of the Cato Institute, circulated a draft advertisement that stated: «Surface
temperature changes
over the
past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for
over a
decade now... The computer models forecasting rapid
temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.»
Frankly with all of these effects acting in the cooling direction, it's amazing that surface
temperatures continued to warm
over the
past decade, but they did.
Nevertheless,
temperatures in recent
decades exceed the uncertainty range
over the
past 400 years.
The black line shows the global
temperature change, clearly going up
over the
past few
decades (if they showed it from even farther in the
past, the rise would be even steeper).