For streamflow prediction, the ESP approach has very limited or no correlation skill beyond the months influenced by initial hydrologic conditions, while the CM - HPS has moderately better correlation skill, attributable to the enhanced
temperature prediction skill that results from CanSIPS's ability to predict El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its teleconnections.
Not exact matches
However, the annual mean
predictions for the global
temperature that they issue every year does have some
skill — being based mainly on the state of ENSO at the start of the year.
On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess
skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «
prediction of mean
temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust
temperature trend».
Predictability and
prediction studies have focused largely on
temperature, and there is evidence of
skill in the
prediction of variations in annual means of
temperature over much of the globe for several years, conditional on the initialization of the forecasts.
There is currently less
skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to
temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate
Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.
If all ring growth influences can be correlated to markers systematically and predictably to the point that an investigator can decipher the full climate history, drought, flood, predation, infestation, sunlight, wind, average
temperature and range of
temperature extremes, then they can demonstrate that
skill with blinds and
predictions.