Model - average mean local precipitation responses also roughly scale with the global
mean temperature response across the emissions scenarios, though not as well as for temperature.
It is known that, in the models at least, not all forcings produce
identical temperature responses — some higher than expected from a CO2 equivalent forcing and some lower than expected.
In other words the CO2 increase should have a rigid, totally
linked temperature response with any variation from this purely temporary linked to the above mentioned caveats.
I do not think it is wise to
make temperature response, either equilibrium or transient, which are supposed to be functions of an artificial quantity, a centerpiece of climate projections.
There are probably other climate responses that different models treat differently, even though they all tend to
generate temperature responses to doubled CO2 of about 1.2 C.
The source of the difference in mean lapse rate feedback between the two studies is unclear, but may relate to inappropriate inclusion of stratospheric
temperature response in some feedback analyses (Soden and Held, 2006).
The pattern and spatial gradients of forcing affect global and regional
temperature responses as well as other aspects of climate response such as the hydrologic cycle.
The TCR is again defined «as the average
temperature response over a twenty - year period centered at CO2 doubling in a transient simulation with CO2 increasing at 1 % per year.»
What I think you have done is misapplied his formula as though it yields a correct
transient temperature response when the CO2 level is (arbitrarily) growing.
The resulting patterns shown in figures 1 and 2 are the median
regional temperature responses simulated by the models per degree of global mean temperature increase (colour - shaded contours) and the 5th — 95th percentile range of temperature changes from each set of models (solid contours with labels).
Regardless, climate models are made interesting by the inclusion of «positive feedbacks» (multiplier effects) so that a small temperature increment expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide invokes large increases in water vapor, which seem to produce exponential rather than
logarithmic temperature response in the models.
They also suggested that this RF mechanism produces a
greater temperature response by a factor of 1.7 than an equivalent CO2 RF, that is, the â $ ˜efficacyâ $ ™ may be higher for this RF mechanism (see Section 2.8.5.7).
To estimate the actual
temperature response then requires adding in the feedbacks and their interactions with each other and the Planck response.
Previous modeling studies find that GHG make up roughly 50 % of the total LGM to
present temperature response (see e.g. Broccoli & Manabe), the other part being albedo etc that respond to the seasonal cycle of irradiance.
For one thing, the energy balance between radiative forcing and
temperature response gives a non-linear relation between the forcing, F, and temperature to the fourth power, T4 (the Stefan - Boltzmann law).
Reconstructing hydrological change is challenging because of greater inherent spatial heterogeneity of hydroclimatic variables; additionally, covariance
with temperature responses in paleoclimatic archives can complicate their integration into reconstruction of a single regionally averaged and time - averaged target variable.
Phrases with «temperature response»