Have you found that this is also likely to be true of any attempt at extracting
temperature signals from tree ring proxies?
Although it is possible to use regression to eliminate the linear portion of the global mean
temperature signal associated with ENSO, the processes that contribute regionally to the global mean differ considerably, and the linear approach likely leaves an ENSO residual.»
Trees growing near to their ecological limits either in terms of latitude or altitude show growth limitations imposed by temperature and thus ring width variations in such trees contain a relatively
strong temperature signal.
The
S&W temperature signal, when closely scrutinised (their Fig. 3), starts at the 0K anomaly - level in 1900, well above the level of the observed 1900 temperature anomalies, which lie in the range -3 K < T < -1 K in Fig. 1.
They base their selection on correlations with local temperatures and have the plausibility to their side that the more extreme stands (in terms of elevation) give the
best temperature signal.
So if CO2 increases cause the 20th century global warming then clearly changes in the CO2 concentration should dominate the global
temperature signal over that period (CO2 lagged, but not much one suspects, and potentially non-linear)?
Buckley, B.M., B.I. Cook, A. Bhattacharyya, D. Dukpa, and V. Chaudhary, 2005: Global
surface temperature signals in pine ring - width chronologies from southern monsoon Asia.
Other factors also contribute to smoothing the
proxy temperature signals contained in many of the records we used, such as organisms burrowing through deep - sea mud, and chronological uncertainties in the proxy records that tend to smooth the signals when compositing them into a globally averaged reconstruction.
The consequence: either the analysed climate archives supply
inaccurate temperature signals, or the tested models underestimate the regional climate fluctuations in Earth's recent history.
Females have a
distinct temperature signal when they're in estrous, then again when they're closer to pregnancy, and when they give birth — so now we have a much better understanding of reproduction in this species.»
If you change the temperature reconstruction you will get a greater or lower solar impact on climate according to the amplitude of the 1000
year temperature signal, of course.
The divergence problem has been discussed in the peer reviewed literature since the mid 1990s when it was noticed that Alaskan trees were showing a
weakened temperature signal in recent decades (Jacoby 1995).
The enduring truth is that over time, since the
AGW temperature signal is a secular rising trend, eventually the signal will emerge from the noise, and it will be harder to argue with the rhetorical wording alone.
However, as I discussed in Part 1A, the combination of calculating based on Anomalies and the climatological concept of Teleconnection means that we need far fewer stations than most people realise to capture the long -
term temperature signal.
The reason why the models fail is because they have in them 7 physics» mistakes, the worst of which is a claim, from meteorology, that single pyrgeometers measure a real energy flux instead of the S -
B temperature signal.