Obviously there are many confounding factors so the problem challenge is to extract the temperature signal and to thus distinguish
the temperature signal from the noise caused by the many confounding factors.
Obviously there are many confounding factors so the problem is to extract the temperature signal and to distinguish
the temperature signal from the noise caused by the many confounding factors.
Obviously there are many confounding factors so the problem is to extract the temperature signal and to distinguish
the temperature signal from the noise caused by the many confounding factors.
Not exact matches
Of course, on a timescale of one decade the
noise in the
temperature signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.
You will still SEE an increase in
temperatures, but because of the poor localisation the variability is much higher and the effect of small - scale (compared to global) forcings that affect only the region you have measurements for mean that to get the
signal from the
noise requires more time.
The enduring truth is that over time, since the AGW
temperature signal is a secular rising trend, eventually the
signal will emerge
from the
noise, and it will be harder to argue with the rhetorical wording alone.
The clear message
from our
signal - to -
noise analysis is that multi-decadal records are required for identifying human effects on tropospheric
temperature.
One notes how infotainting Norm Kalmanovitch is with his nine - year long view of climate, which manages in half the length of time that
signal can be separated
from noise in the already questionable surface
temperature record by ordinary mathematics and a demand for predictions about inherently unpredictable matters to come to an ironclad conclusion that happens to coincide with his own biased views.
What test would we use to say well, Nino 3.4 is
noise so we can safely subtract its effects
from the global
temperature signal, but, for example Nino 1 +2 is not
noise, it's part of the
signal?
So if you remove the El Nino swings
from the
temperature, the theory goes, then we can see more of the underlying
temperature signal by removing the
noise.
Later, when the
signal is extracted
from the random
noise,
from the measurement error and the deliberate measurement errors, and all of that extracted
from the millennium
temperature changes, can the «chicken and egg» relationship be considered.
«To the contrary, the results that I present demonstrate that pre - dictor networks explicitly containing
temperature signals — perturbed with approximate proxy
noise levels — also do not beat the AR1 (Emp) and Brow - nian Motion
noise models in cross-validation experiments and that skillful CPS reconstructions can be derived
from such predictors.»
If we detrend HadCRUT, analogous to removing the DC leaving only the power supply ripple, and subtract this (ENSO, PDO, AMO, SSN, Pinatubo, etc) «hum»
from the
signal + noise of UAH temperature measurements, we can also improve our Signal to Noise
signal +
noise of UAH temperature measurements, we can also improve our Signal to Noise R
noise of UAH
temperature measurements, we can also improve our
Signal to Noise
Signal to
Noise R
Noise Ratio.
Each of those low
temperature data points are the clearest
signals (least amount of local
noise) of any physical measurement that is possible on earth, or
from a satellite in space.
Since no - one has measured a CO2
signal in any modern
temperature / time graph,
from standard
signal to
noise ratio physics, there is a strong indication that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is indistinguishable
from zero.»
The space - time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant
signal - to -
noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated
from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and
from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas - plus - aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30 - y trends (1966 — 1995) of annual mean near surface
temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5 % confidence level.