Making no assumption about spectrum is 3 times closer to our observed
temperature than the hypothesis which confounds spectrum, a specific extreme spectrum, and total irradiance.
Not exact matches
Rather
than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse - gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing
hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long - term variations in
temperature.
Lindzen and Giannitsis (2002) pose the
hypothesis that the rapid change in tropospheric (850 — 300 hPa)
temperatures around 1976 triggered a delayed response in surface
temperature that is best modelled with a climate sensitivity of less
than 1 °C.
On the possibility of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal
temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster
than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray
hypothesis.
V 53: Supporters of the mainstream climate change
hypothesis claim there is no explanation for the (supposedly) alarming rise in
temperatures other
than CO2 emissions, and they challenge skeptics to provide one.
Supporters of the mainstream climate change
hypothesis claim there is no explanation for the (supposedly) alarming rise in
temperatures other
than CO2 emissions, and they challenge skeptics to provide one.
I note in passing the Wiley site is currently down for maintenance so Hargreaves is not accessible — however from the diagram that can be seen it looks as though the null
hypothesis was «no change in
temperature» rather
than showing it «had substantial skill compared to any naive model.
I rather suspect (my
hypothesis if you will) is that the resulting trend will be even more muted
than the
temperature trend.
If this
hypothesis were correct, Earth
temperatures would have risen about 6 °C between 1900 and 2006, rather
than the rise of between 0.1 °C and 0.5 °C, which actually occurred.»
The null
hypothesis is that
temperature has been stable for ten thousand years and nothing in the data indicates
than anything has changed.
Judith is right, «warmest» year is much less important
than would be (but missing) validation of IPCC conclusion (actually
hypothesis begging testing) that «the global mean
temperatures will > 2oC in the next 100 years.
If the record had been a tropical jungle or sea I'd have considered my
hypothesis falsfied but so far every prediction made by it fits what has been observed with the sole exception of the Antarctic interior but that may be due to exceptional characteristics such as the strong polar vortex, ozone hole, and a
temperature far lower
than anywhere else on the planet.
Despite the fact that the film delineates a few impacts of an Earth - wide
temperature boost anticipated by researchers, for example climbing ocean levels, more dangerous storms, and disturbance of sea ebbs and flows and climate designs, it portrays these occasions incident a great deal more quickly and intensely
than is recognized logically possible, and the
hypothesis that a superstorm will make quick worldwide environmental change does not show up in the investigative writing.
You see, Joanne, you have nothing in the way of an
hypothesis that even explains the observed surface
temperature of Earth, let alone that of Venus or at the base of the 350Km high nominal troposphere of Uranus where it's hotter
than Earth.
In a series extending over many years, such a pause may have weakened the
hypothesis of steady
temperature increase but the base
temperature levels are still higher
than in recorded history and there is still room for
temperatures to continue to rise in the longer term.
Rejects the null
hypothesis that the latest observed 20 - yr and 30 - yr trend of near - surface
temperature (ending in 1994) is part of natural variability with a risk of less
than 2.5 % to 5 %
To discard observations (like the «pause» of the global mean
temperatures since 1997 shown on the appended figure 1 - A) the IPCC folks put forward a
hypothesis («the greenhouse effect well understood since more
than hundred years «-RRB- but do not provide any definition of their «greenhouse effect ``.
Occam's Razor isn't kindly disposed to the obscenely complex consensus model that does a worse job of predicting surface
temperature than this far simpler and better performing
hypothesis.
However, statistical analysis very clearly support the theory, which also imply that the climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling is about 1.5 K. And models made using this
hypothesis are able to explain the
temperature patterns since 1850 very well, much better
than any IPCC CMIP5 models.
But during the former period, the CO2 concentration was about 20 % lower
than during the later one, and fossil fuels consumption was about 5 times lower... This falsifies the
hypothesis that CO2 is the main driver of
temperature variations.
If you are trying to test the
hypothesis that climate models have not predicted the pause since 1998, then you should be comparing trends between models and observations, rather
than seeing if the observed
temperature anomalies lie within a broad envelope of climate model simulations.
The thunderstorm thermostat
hypothesis is far from settled science, but it is clearly a much better
hypothesis (in terms of explaining the available data)
than the IPCC's assumption that global
temperatures are determined primarily by changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.
It's less
than 4 percent of the greenhouse gases and ALL records show
temperature increases before CO2, opposite to the fundamental assumption of the IPCC
hypothesis.
The
hypothesis that is to be proved (i.e. that CO2 causes global warming) is used to explain the rise in
temperature in the Cenozoic, without citing any basis other
than «surely» (in italics).
Otherwise, such a
hypothesis does not even satisfy the First Law of Thermodynamics (basically, conservation of energy): Without substances in the atmosphere that absorb terrestrial radiation, the earth's surface at its present
temperature would be emitting back out into space way more energy
than it receives from the sun and hence would rapidly cool down.
The AGW
hypothesis states that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will increase the global
temperature by approximately 2.78 °C but the 14.77 micron band of the Earth's thermal radiative spectrum is already so close to satureation that no more
than half a degree C of warming from a doubling of CO2 is even (remotely) physically possible.