The new study, published in Nature, is the first to make a global assessment of how long - term
temperature variability changed from the LGM to the Holocene.
Climate researchers from the Helmholtz Young Investigators Group ECUS at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Potsdam have now investigated how
temperature variability changed as the Earth warmed from the last glacial period to the current interglacial period.
Not exact matches
Growing scarcity In addition to a growing scarcity of natural resources such as land, water and biodiversity «global agriculture will have to cope with the effects of climate
change, notably higher
temperatures, greater rainfall
variability and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts,» Diouf warned.
By comparison, phenacosaur anoles living in cloud forests have had very little exposure to
temperature variability for over 10 million years and are very much at risk from climate
change, he said.
«Winds hide Atlantic
variability from Europe's winters: Study reveals how wind patterns
change along with sea - surface
temperatures.»
However, solar
variability alone can not explain the post-1970 global
temperature trends, especially the global
temperature rise in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.»
Comparing layers in the ice - core samples and ocean sediments has allowed researchers to deduce e.g. how the average
temperature on Earth has
changed over time, and also how great the
variability was.
The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future
temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal
variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.
The crucial question now is whether the
temperature changes in the Pacific reflect a natural
variability in the climate that might reset itself in a few years or whether the shift to weaker long rains is a permanent result of human - induced climate
change.
In 1896, the Swedish chemist Svante August Arrhenius proposed that
changing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to more
temperature variability in the poles.
«This trend is not seen during the industrial period, where Northern Hemisphere
temperature changes, driven by humanmade forcings, precede
variability in the marine environment.»
To find out how average monthly
temperatures had
changed from 1847 to 2013, the researchers used an advanced statistical time series approach to figure out what
changes in
temperature were due to natural
variability and what
changes represented a long - term trend.
Whilst PET does show brown fat activity, it is subject to a number of limitations including the challenge of signal
variability from a
changing environmental
temperature.
Variability of central European
temperature and precipitation shows correlations with some major historical
changes.
In the 1980s, natural
variability accounted for almost half of the
temperature changes seen.
The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface
temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to
changes in ocean surface
temperatures and atmospheric
variability.
Because they are habitat specialists requiring a very specific amount of precipitation, they are likely to be unprepared to face ongoing
temperature variability and
changing precipitation levels.
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate
change, and how much to natural
variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface
temperatures,
changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
The groundbreaking study revealed that, globally, the year - to - year
variability of the land carbon balance — the exchange of carbon that takes place between the land biosphere and the atmosphere — responds most significantly to
changes in
temperature.
Its results show a large range of natural summer
temperature variability and identify distinct phases of rapid
change.
Borodina, A., Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Emergent constraints in climate projections: a case study of
changes in high - latitude
temperature variability.
Huntingford, C., Jones, P. D., Livina, V. N., Lenton, T. M. & Cox, P. M. No increase in global
temperature variability despite
changing regional patterns.
Both that study and Trenary's, which focused on the East Coast, looked to see if the relative rarity of the event could be linked to
changes in the
variability of wintertime
temperatures.
We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal
variability and externally forced
changes and hence forecasts surface
temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions.
Brown, P. T., Y. Ming, W. Li, S. A. Hill (2017)
Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global
temperature variability with warming.
However, it is expected that — given the combination of
changes in precipitation
variability,
changed snowpack, and rising
temperatures — future droughts will be more severe when they do occur.
From this close correlation, McLean et al argued that more than two thirds of interseasonal and long - term
variability in
temperature changes can be explained by the Southern Oscillation Index.
For birds and amphibians, we considered exposure to five components of climate
change, namely
changes in mean
temperature,
temperature variability, mean precipitation, precipitation
variability and sea level rise.
Rather, it sampled how sensitive they are to climate «
variability» — defined in the study as monthly
changes in
temperature, precipitation or water availability, and cloud cover.
Changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes, of both moisture and
temperature, are affected by climate trends as well as
changing variability.
In addition, both internal
variability and aerosol forcing are likely to affect tropical storms in large part though
changes in ocean
temperature gradients (thereby
changing ITCZ position and vertical shear), while greenhouse gases likely exert their influence by more uniformly
changing ocean and tropospheric
temperatures, so the physics of the problem may suggest this decomposition as more natural as well.
In Atmospheric Controls On Northeast Pacific
Temperature Variability And
Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain climate change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse
Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain climate
change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse
change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gases.
This is seen in Johanessen et al 2009, «Arctic climate
change: observed and modelled
temperature and sea - ice
variability.»
The likely contributions of natural forcing and internal
variability to global
temperature change over that period are minor (high confidence).
It probably trends the global
temperature anoamlies well, becuase, well, global
temperature changes are causing unadjusted AMO
variability.
Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small
changes in subsurface ocean
temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate
variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene.
Thanks for publishing this, there are folks who denigrated the work of scientists that claimed a solar - climate (
temperature) link because the
variability in solar energy output just wasn't enough to explain the
temperature swings, and perhaps they now realize that there could be another mechanism - similar to a transistor where small
changes in gate voltage can affect large
changes in power transmission - whereby solar activity can create significant effects on
temperature.
So, it follows on phtysical grounds that any
temperature change at the surface gets amplified aloft which means that the
variability in
temperature (solely the «dry» energy term) is larger aloft than at the surface.
A natural coupled mode of climate
variability associated with both surface
temperature variations tied to El Niño and atmospheric circulation
changes across the equatorial Pacific (see also «Southern Oscillation Index»).
Based on the comparison between reconstructions and simulations, there is high confidence that not only external orbital, solar and volcanic forcing, but also internal
variability, contributed substantially to the spatial pattern and timing of surface
temperature changes between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850).
The attribution of the term at regional scales is complicated by significant regional variations in
temperature changes due to the the influence of modes of climate
variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino / Southern Oscillation.
As with most titles, however, this one simplifies the chain of causality (global climate
change - > increased
temperature variability - > increased infection - > increased frog sickness) and hopefully invites readers to read further.
Some years back, we hypothesized that
changes to climate
variability, rather than
changes to mean climate, might tip the balance towards the chytrid fungus because all pathogens are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, and thus might acclimate more quickly following short - term
temperature shifts [link].
Thus our hypothesis predicts increased infection with climate
change, due to increased
temperature variability.
The
changes in latent in sensible and latent heat flux from ocean to atmosphere that occur during El Nino (greater flux) and La Nina (lower flux) are of course key to understanding the short term
variability in tropospheric
temperatures.
Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength of the north - ward horizontal flow of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic poleward heat transport and the distribution of sea surface
temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source of the (climate) natural
variability.
The climate
change literature offers a reasonable consensus that anthropogenic global climate
change is increasing the
variability of climate, including central Pacific El Niño events and
temperature fluctuations in tropical and subtropical regions.
Two things have
changed in recent years — first, the
temperature changes over the historical period are now more persistent, and so the trend in relation to the year - to - year
variability has become more significant (this is still true even if you think there has been a «hiatus»).
Consequently, it seems likely that increased
temperature variability due to climate
change has accelerated chytrid - related frog declines and extinctions.
Thus, the title of the USF press release, «Frogs Getting Sick from Climate
Change,» is accurate in suggesting that climate change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate c
Change,» is accurate in suggesting that climate
change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate c
change caused increased frog infection and infection - induced mortality, whether one interprets «climate
change» as referring to the short - term temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased temperature variability caused by global climate c
change» as referring to the short - term
temperature shifts investigated by our experiments, or to increased
temperature variability caused by global climate
changechange.