[Response: Your argument misses the point in three
different and important ways, not even considering whether or not the Black Hills data have any general applicability elsewhere, which they may or may not: (1) It ignores the point made in the post about the potential effect of previous, seasonal warming on the magnitude of an extreme event in mid summer to early fall, due to things like (especially) a depletion in soil moisture and consequent accumulation of degree days, (2) it ignores that biological sensitivity is far FAR greater
during the warm
season than the cold
season for a whole number of crucial variables ranging from respiration and photosynthesis to transpiration rates, and (3) it ignores the potential for derivative effects, particularly fire and smoke, in radically increasing the local
temperature effects of the heat wave.
I'm looking forward to the explanation of why temperate and boreal trees» primary and secondary meristems go dormant
during the cold
season (= no growth) but those of tropical trees, which have no such
season, do not, and why ITRDB tree ring data at
temperature limited sites show such suspiciously high correlations between the growth rates of the
different trees in a stand.