Perhaps even more remarkable is that despite these climate oscillations,
temperatures on a decadal basis remain bounded within the tight limits noted of -1.3 to 0.8 C so giving a remarkable constancy of around 2 degrees C throughout the near 500 year record.
Not exact matches
Based on this principle, it adds the
temperature difference between the
decadal average of 1850 - 59 (corresponding to the end of the Alley et al
temperature proxy) and 2000 - 09 (the present) to the Alley proxy.
You are stating if these temps are known, we can then know the mean
temperature for the northern hemisphere
on an annual or
decadal basis.
My calculations show that combining heliospheric magnetic field (controlling input of the cosmic rays
basis of the Svensmark's theory) with changes in the Earth's magnetic field indeed shows close correlation with the
temperature variability in the N. Hemisphere
on the annual,
decadal and multi-
decadal scale.
Prior to 1979 when satellites began to measure lower troposphere
temperature all over the globe we had no measure of global average
temperature (GAT) only guesstimates
based on fewer and fewer measurements using instruments not designed to measure
decadal trends so small as a few milliKelvins per decade.
Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength
based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of ocean
temperature anomalies [33], seawater
temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).
The CET data for the period indicate a distinct climate shift of some 0.35 degrees centigrade
on a 50 year
basis, but rather more
on a
decadal basis, so that well documented era can usefully be our benchmark for
temperature comparisons, whilst demonstrating the usefulness of a
decadal time scale in determining a change in the climate that is «noticeable» and has an impact
on humans and nature.
For the record, in the case of this «divergence», after dropping that post 1960 portion, the comparison between the reconstruction and the
temperature record was done using
decadal «smoothing» (basically weighted moving averages) of both series correlated
on an annual
basis for the 80 year period 1880 to 1960 so that the reported correlation was extremely exaggerated and not interpretable as a simple correlation might be.
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or
decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air
temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
I judge the models implausible
on the
basis of describing fundamentals — ENSO, PDO, AMO etc — and in predicting even
decadal temperature changes.
We show that a harmonic constituent model
based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced from the natural gravitational oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the
decadal and multidecadal
temperature oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the
temperature data before 1950, and vice versa.
With a simple regression model
based on the four cycles (about 9.1, 10, 20 and 60 year period) plus an upward trend, that can be geometrically captured by a quadratic fit of the
temperature, in the paper I have proved that all GCMs adopted by the IPCC fail to geometrically reproduce the detected
temperature cycles at both
decadal and multidecadal scale.