To answer this question, one needs to look beyond warming in a few regions and view
temperatures on a global scale.
We have been told, well screamed at really, that CO2 is causing unprecedented rise of
temperature on a global scale.
According to the authors, «if you reconstruct
temperatures on a global scale — and not just examine Antarctic temperatures — it becomes apparent that the CO2 change slightly preceded much of the global warming, and this means the global greenhouse effect had an important role in driving up global temperatures and bringing the planet out of the last Ice Age.»
The researchers, most of them based at Columbia University's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory, say it cements the theory that atmospheric moisture, and thus dust, move in close step with
temperature on a global scale; the finding may in turn help inform current ideas to seed oceans with iron - rich dust in order to mitigate global warming.
Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect warming
on a
global scale, the effects of increased albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect
temperatures only
on a regional level.
«This work makes us think that increasing urbanization and rising
temperatures associated with
global climate change could lead to increases in
scale insect populations, which could have correspondingly negative effects
on trees like the red maple,» Dale says.
Professor Jim Haywood, from the Mathematics department at the University of Exeter and co-author of the study added: «This research shows how a
global temperature target such as 1.5 or 2C needs to be combined with information
on a more regional
scale to properly assess the full range of climate impacts.»
However,
on a
global scale variability is mostly driven by
temperature fluctuations, the research showed.
To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead
on the patterns of change, the authors
scaled the vertical profiles of ocean
temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical ocean layer) with the
global surface air
temperature trend of each period.
On shorter time
scales, however, changes in heat storage (i.e., ocean heat uptake or release) can affect
global mean
temperature.
Solar cycles also have
global temperature implications, although
on a much smaller
scale.
If one is looking for real differences among mainstream scientists, they can be found
on two fronts: the precise implications of those higher
temperatures, and which technologies and policies offer the best solution to reducing,
on a
global scale, the emission of greenhouse gases.
One finds
on the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal, annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Means
on the secular time
scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal, annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the
Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile
On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Means
On the decade time
scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Means].
«it is a proven fact that lighter surfaces within our urban environments will decrease climate
temperatures if implemented
on a
global scale.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally averaged surface
temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged
temperature change, in response to climate forcings and
on time
scales greater than the annual cycle.
There's a slow cooling trend, as expected from the slowly decreasing insolation (the Milankovitch cycle), followed by an unexpected
temperature spike at the end — the result of fossil fuel combustion
on a
global scale.
Pay particular attention to the
temperature scale on the left hand side — 1 cm is equivalent to 0.2 degrees centigrade — and think about what we are trying to measure — the
global average
temperature, all of it, oceans, atmosphere and continents.
Even if it were real physical variability, at that short time
scale I would not expect it to be linked to
global temperature in the way that I expect this link
on longer time
scales.
Action
on climate change needs to be
scaled up and accelerated without delay if the world is to have a running chance of keeping a
global average
temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius this century.
The new research is a regional climate study of historical sea level pressures, winds and
temperatures over the eastern Pacific Ocean and draws no conclusions about climate change
on a
global scale.
AR5 section 9.5.3 concludes «Nevertheless, the lines of evidence above suggest with high confidence that models reproduce
global and NH
temperature variability
on a wide range of time
scales.»
Previous studies have focused
on hemispheric or
global -
scale temperature reconstructions, which are useful for understanding overall average conditions, but can overlook important differences at regional
scales.
The fact that you CAN ignore everything else and get good agreement with the basic
global surface
temperature indicates that you CAN ignore everything else
on a
global scale.
But since we seem to have determined that
global mean
temperatures do tend to track
global mean forcings, the interesting science is now in determining the regional
scale at which we can still make useful statements — and whether a forcing is «first order» or not will depend quite crucially
on what the
scale is.
If one is looking for real differences among mainstream scientists, they can be found
on two fronts: the precise implications of those higher
temperatures, and which technologies and policies offer the best solution to reducing,
on a
global scale, the emission of greenhouse gases.
-- It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency of warm daily
temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur throughout the 21st century
on a
global scale.
«The forecast for
global mean
temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations
on decadal
scale, even
on a
global scale.
But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even
global mean surface
temperature on a decadal
scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.
If you are of the opinion that
temperature variability
on a short time
scale is insignificant, how can we declare as fact that the rise in
global temperature over the past 50 years is incontrovertibly tied to the increase in CO2 levels?
Since humans began burning fossil fuels
on a large
scale, the
global average
temperature has risen 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), with most of the increase occurring since 1970.
``... it is now very likely that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the observed changes in the frequency and intensity of daily
temperature extremes
on the
global scale since the mid-20th century.
«Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change» When trying to position the Amazon tipping point
on the
scale of the
global temperature rise, one of the most - often cited studies is one from the year 2009, performed by a team of researchers of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, led by Chris Jones and published in Nature Geoscience.
This was a very basic attempt to approximate the effects of natural variables
on global temperatures, using
scaling and lags that were eye - balled.
However, models would need to underestimate variability by factors of over two in their standard deviation to nullify detection of greenhouse gases in near - surface
temperature data (Tett et al., 2002), which appears unlikely given the quality of agreement between models and observations at
global and continental
scales (Figures 9.7 and 9.8) and agreement with inferences
on temperature variability from NH
temperature reconstructions of the last millennium.
100 % certainty means we know every possible potential driver of
global temperature on the
scales of subatomic particles, atoms and molecules, the microscopic, the macroscopic, the Earth, the Solar System, the galaxy, and the Universe.
It would be interesting to overlay the first chart with average
global air
temperatures (putting the
scale on the right hand side).
SkyPower, the world's largest developer and owner of utility -
scale solar energy projects, is proud to announce its landmark partnership agreement with COP21, the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change, which delegations representing over 150 countries will attend in Paris for 12 days with the objective of reaching a universal agreement
on how to slow the rise of
global temperatures.
It remains that there are no evidence lines
on a
global scale that indicate the planetary
temperature is either stable or cooling, or that it is natural cycle.
The desire to avoid large ice sheet shrinkage and sea level rise implies a need to get
global temperature back into or close to the Holocene range
on the time
scale of a century or less.
Paleontological records indicate that
global mean sea level is highly sensitive to
temperature (7) and that ice sheets, the most important contributors to large - magnitude sea - level change, can respond to warming
on century time
scales (8), while models suggest ice sheets require millennia to approach equilibrium (9).
On a longer time
scale,
global average surface
temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70 °C per century.
Global Temperature is an example of a bulk property, and it does indeed average out over sufficient time
scales; hence showing that whatever chaos, spatio - temporal or otherwise, is present in the system
on short timescales it does not affect our longer term predictions.
It is a big enough perturbation
on timescales of multiple decades or longer to dominate the
temperature pattern
on a
global scale, despite the existence of chaotic elements responsible for fluctuations in the
temperature trend globally that average out, and despite significant unpredictability regionally.
I find the focus
on tree rings disturbing, because while they will show the annual variation in
temperature they will tend to minimize the centuries - long variations, This got me thinking: Could it be that three ring growth as climate proxies, are NOT
scale invariant (micro vs
global climates?
They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode, changes in climate statistics
on the regional
scale, and even in terms of the
global average surface
temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.
However, this relationship (which, contrary to the claim of MFC09, is simulated by
global climate models, e.g. Santer et al. [2001]-RRB- can not explain
temperature trends
on decadal and longer time
scales.»
Better understanding of the thermal processes and effects that OTEC operations has
on ocean
temperatures and vice versa is important to predict energy yield potential
on both local (site - specific) and
global scales.
Note: The
scaled red NCDC monthly
global temperature anomaly curve and the monthly cumulative CO2 increase are superimposed
on the satellite reflected sunlight chart.
On the bigger
scale of things, then, taking carefully - selected bits of the
temperature - record that are way too short to be anything but noise, and using them to try and pretend that
global warming has stopped, is such a popular contrarian trick that we illustrated it with «The Escalator»:
On a
global scale, the cooling effect of carbon sequestration dominates and, in this work, afforestation of all the climatically viable cropland gave a
global temperature reduction of 0.45 oC by the end of this century.