Not exact matches
«You can in fact reduce the upper ocean [
temperature] by a degree Celsius, maybe 2, which would have a measurable effect
on the intensity of the
hurricane, but the practical concerns were hard to overcome.»
«It's giving unparalleled details about the
hurricanes,» Tang says, including data
on wind speeds and water
temperatures delivered every minute that are then fed into models.
The future of the currents, whether slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect
on regional weather patterns — from colder winters in Europe to a much warmer Caribbean (and hence warmer sea surface
temperatures to feed
hurricanes).
But a reduction in the number and intensity of large
hurricanes driving ocean waters
on shore — such as this month's
Hurricane Joaquin, seen, which reached category 4 strength — may also play a role by cooling sea - surface
temperatures that fuel the growth of these monster storms, the team notes.
On the other hand, statistical analysis of the past century's
hurricanes and computer modeling of a warmer climate, nudged along by greenhouse gases, does indicate that rising ocean
temperatures could fuel
hurricanes that are more intense.
Already he has shown, at least
on the computer screen, that small changes in wind and air
temperature — in fact, no more than 3 to 5 degrees — could have redirected
hurricane Iniki away from landfall in 1992 and reduced the strength of
hurricane Andrew that same year.
Several recent studies such as Emanuel (2005 — previously discussed here) and Hoyos et al (2006 — previously discussed here) have emphasized the role of increasing tropical sea surface
temperatures (SSTs)
on recent increases in
hurricane intensities, both globally and for the Atlantic.
In an interview at The Times last week, Fox said his focus
on human - driven climate change emerged as he grappled, after that small fracking success, with the unrelenting demand for fossil fuels and emerging impacts of warming
temperatures, made emblematic by
Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
With regard to Williams answer to Terry (# 34), I believe that Terry is correct that it is
temperature differences that are fundamental, and not, for the most part, the
temperature itself, as Emanuel has discussed in a series of important papers
on the maximum intensity that
hurricanes can attain.
There are some physics - based theories regarding the nature of climate change yes, but the ONLY way to test them is
on the basis of the sort of evidence that climate scientists have been collecting for many years now,
on, for example, global
temperatures, ocean
temperatures, sea level, frequency of drought,
hurricanes, rainstorms, etc..
As far as
hurricane issues, the consensus now is that
hurricane intensification forecasts are best done
on the basis of subsurface
temperatures.
Furiously destructive Hurricanes are not the only indicator of AGW, in context of those Hurricanes cycles in the past, or rather in contrast with past high intensity
hurricane seasons, we now experience all time high
temperatures raging everywhere in the world, 1 meter a day rainfalls, severe droughts
on 4 distinct continents, many glaciers going or gone everywhere, and a good chunk of the Arctic Ocean permanent ice melted.
It depends
on the signal - to - noise ratio, so for global
temperature in recent decades 20 years has been about enough, for CO2 concentration 4 years is more than enough while for
hurricane frequency 50 years is probably too short.
I think the evidence is emerging that quite small changes in sea surface
temperatures have huge effects
on hurricanes and these events.
On the global warming context, it's worth noting that while sea surface
temperatures are hot, a more important factor for
hurricane intensification (among many) is «tropical cyclone heat potential» (which includes the
temperature of deeper layers of seawater that get churned up as a tropical storm passes).
It is my understanding that the formation of
hurricanes is largely dependent
on the presence of a baseline minimum (absolute)
temperature.
Re 28, Ben: In addition to the concerns you list, intense
hurricanes normally cause some upwelling of deeper waters, and if they are slow - moving, thus somewhat dependent
on the
temperature of deeper waters.
How many records being broken
on a daily basis, in
temperature variation, increasing flooding, droughts,
hurricanes, fires, etc....
The present steady rise in tropical
temperatures due to global warming will have a major impact
on global climate and could intensify destructive
hurricanes like Katrina and Rita.
During the period 1992 - 2000, the average sea - surface
temperature of the Indian Ocean increased by approximately 0.25 Celsius, this may be the cause of an increased monsoon strength here (or more
hurricanes on other places)...
And, as increase in ocean
temperature lags increase in atmospheric temp., even if no AGW signal is yet visible in the
hurricane data, this may not mean very much in terms of the future impact of AGW
on hurricane intensity.
Warmer water contributes to
hurricanes, well and good, but I never see mentioned what the effects of the different air
temperatures and humidity from global warming are expected to have
on hurricanes.
Dr Gray's biggest problem is that he completely rejects AGW, in its place he relies
on an ocean
temperature cycle which guarranties a period of calm and furious
hurricanes, of which we are right into the middle of an active period.
Trenberth told Discovery said: «The eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, where disturbances from Africa are transformed into
hurricanes, is experiencing record high
temperatures, even higher than in 2005, and that was the most
hurricane - ridden season
on record.»
I've sent a query to some
hurricane researchers to get a bit more
on what, besides warm sea
temperatures, makes conditions this ripe for powerful tropical storms.
Based
on the results of the causality tests, the author concludes that it is global near - surface air
temperature that influences sea surface
temperature, and not the other way around — which supports the global warming - induced increase in
hurricane intensity.
Thus, a decreasing pole - equator
temperature gradient shouldn't have much effect
on hurricanes.
There is virtually universal agreement that average
hurricane intensity
on Earth is a straightforward function of ocean - atmosphere
temperatures; thus, rising SSTs will inevitably mean more intense
hurricanes.
Considering that the mechanism of the «natural AMO» is so poorly understood, there's no justification for immediately blaming increases in
hurricane activity
on it while entirely ignoring global warming effects
on sea surface
temperatures (and atmospheric moisture), for which very clear mechanisms do exist.
But it does say; «Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface
temperature, may have a larger effect
on hurricane activity than the more uniform patterns of global warming...»
While the changes in both the mean and higher order statistical moments (e.g., variance) of time - series of climate variables affect the frequency of relatively simple extremes (e.g., extreme high daily or monthly
temperatures, damaging winds), changes in the frequency of more complex extremes are based
on changes in the occurrence of complex atmospheric phenomena (e.g.,
hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms).
Don't even get me started
on the futility of trying to predict actual climactic effects of increased
temperatures (
hurricanes, droughts, etc).
Such reports could be
on topics like climate change's influence
on hurricanes, the so - called «pause» in the increase of average global surface
temperatures or the climate implications of natural gas.
From what I know, theoretically it should be possible, as the various climate geoengineering options proposed would have impacts precisely
on the
temperatures that drive
hurricane intensity;
Students will analyze that data for evidential links, hypothesize about the possible effect
on hurricanes of continual ocean
temperature increases, and predict related implications for residents of coastal areas.
«It's important to recognize that [storm] damage is going to increase going forward, no matter what happens to sea - surface
temperatures or
hurricanes, as more people move to vulnerable locations
on the coastline,» he said.
One of those mechanisms is
hurricanes, which reduce local
temperatures when they exceed certain general levels depending
on other local conditions.
«There's certainly strong circumstantial evidence because we know that the strength of tropical cyclones,
hurricanes, typhoons depends very much
on sea surface
temperatures.
Go ahead and show us
on any of the following: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Antarctic Sea Ice Extent OHC Sea level Rise Rate Global
Temperature Drought Incidence
Hurricane Activity Tornado Activity Glacial Melting Like my mother use to tell me «Do something useful»
Elevated
temperatures persisted for many weeks and helped fuel the most active Atlantic
hurricane season
on record [11] and the most severe and extensive mass coral bleaching event observed in the Caribbean.
Low - lying island states and other countries vulnerable to rising sea levels, floods and
hurricanes have been putting pressure
on developed countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions and keep the rise in
temperatures to within a limit of 2C this century.
How
hurricanes develop also depends
on how the local atmosphere responds to changes in local sea surface
temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically
on the cause of the change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local sea surface
temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when sea surface
temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.25, 26,27,28
Added to this list can be perturbation scenarios that start with regional reanalysis (e.g. such as by arbitrarily adding a 1C increase in minimum
temperature in the winter, a 10 day increase in the growing season, a doubling of major
hurricane landfalls
on the Florida coast, etc).
Polar bears, arctic summer sea ice, regional droughts and floods, coral bleaching,
hurricanes, alpine glaciers, malaria, etc., all depend not
on GATA but
on a huge number of regional variables including
temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, and direction and magnitude of wind and the state of the ocean.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «
on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in
temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies,
hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
Temperature and Precipitation The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) HAMSR instrument flew above
Hurricane Matthew
on October 7, 2016, aboard a NASA Global Hawk aircraft.
(07/08/2013) Warmer ocean
temperatures will increase the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, typhoons and
hurricanes in «most locations» this century, concludes a new study based
on simulations using six global climate models.
Global warming also increases both the risk and intensity of
hurricanes — which are dependent
on sea surface
temperatures — and the hazards of flooding, because global warming is linked to sea level rise.
-- Muller believes humans are changing climate with CO2 emissions — humans have been responsible for «most» of a 0.4 C warming since 1957, almost none of the warming before then — IPCC is in trouble due to sloppy science, exaggerated predictions; chairman will have to resign — the «Climategate» mails were not «hacked» — they were «leaked» by an insider — due to «hide the decline» deception, Muller will not read any future papers by Michael Mann — there has been no increase in
hurricanes or tornadoes due to global warming — automobiles are insignificant in overall picture — China is the major CO2 producer, considerably more than USA today — # 1 priority for China is growth of economy — global warming is not considered important — China CO2 efficiency (GDP per ton CO2) is around one - fourth of USA today, has much room for improvement — China growth will make per capita CO2 emissions at same level as USA today by year 2040 — if it is «not profitable» it is «not sustainable» — US energy future depends
on shale gas for automobiles; hydrogen will not be a factor — nor will electric cars, due to high cost — Muller is upbeat
on nuclear (this was recorded pre-Fukushima)-- there has been no warming in the USA — Muller was not convinced of Hansen's GISS
temperature record; hopes BEST will provide a better record.
It is, as yet, unsettled how this region relates to the basin - wide warming that is the AMO and the associated impacts
on Atlantic
hurricanes, and
temperature and precipitation patterns around the circum - North Atlantic.