They applied a new method that fills in missing
temperatures over sea ice by combining satellite data for missing areas with a method known as «kriging,» which calculates missing data by checking nearby temperature station readings.
And air temperatures over exposed land surfaces should warm differently than air
temperatures over sea ice, especially when open ocean separates them.
I was very fortunate to be able to attend this meeting, and talking to the experts there was critical to understanding the behaviour of air
temperatures over sea ice - this led to section 5 in the paper and our more recent update.
You almost assuredly saw at least one story about how the potent storm that triggered deadly tornado outbreaks and flooding across the South and Midwest in recent days carried so much warm air to the North Pole that
temperatures over the sea ice, normally well below zero through the dark boreal winter, briefly hitting 33 degrees Fahrenheit today.
Also, the air
temperature over sea ice question isn't closed.
b Trends surface temperature from the GOGA CAM3 simulations (background colorscale; air
temperature over sea ice and SST elsewhere) along with the Z850 trend produced by the model simulations (black contours; negative dashed and positive solid; interval of 3 m / decade) and the simulated convective precipitation trends (positive green contours, negative red contours, contoured at − 0.7, − 0.3, − 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, and 0.7 mm / day / decade, shown only for 45 ° S — 45 ° N. (c) As in (b) but for the TOGA CAM3 simulations.
In both GOGA and TOGA simulations, the surface
temperature over sea ice can respond to both prescribed sea ice and simulated atmospheric circulation changes, which explains differences with observations
Not exact matches
King penguins are in fact picky animals: in order to form a colony where they can mate, lay eggs and rear chicks
over a year, they need tolerable
temperature all year round, no winter
sea ice around the island, and smooth beach of sand or pebbles.
El Niño thus leaves its mark on the Quelccaya
ice cap as a chemical signature (especially in oxygen isotopes) indicating
sea surface
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
over much of the past 1,800 years.
Arctic
sea ice melt fueled by ever - rising global
temperatures is also opening the already fragile region to increased shipping traffic and may be affecting weather patterns
over Europe, Asia and North America.
Note, the low Arctic
sea -
ice extent
over the last summers are independent evidence of high Arctic
temperatures.
Whilst it's natural to start with air
temperatures, a more thorough examination should be as inclusive as possible; snow cover,
ice melt, air
temperatures over land and
sea, even the
sea temperatures themselves.
The Nature article comes as climate scientists published what they said today was the «best ever» collection of evidence for global warming, including
temperature over land, at
sea and in the higher atmosphere, along with records of humidity,
sea - level rise, and melting
ice.
The global mean
temperature rise of less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter
temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C
over most of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 % in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate change.
Arctic and Antarctic
Sea Ice Mayhem: AGU Mashup / / Published on Dec 24, 2017 Early snow retreat on the West Siberian Plains warms air temperatures, amplifying Rossby waves, causing a ridge and warming over Laptev Sea (thus rapid Arctic ice los
Ice Mayhem: AGU Mashup / / Published on Dec 24, 2017 Early snow retreat on the West Siberian Plains warms air
temperatures, amplifying Rossby waves, causing a ridge and warming
over Laptev
Sea (thus rapid Arctic
ice los
ice loss).
Other factors contributing to the recent regional rapid warming
over the Antarctic Peninsula include decreased
sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, resulting in warmer air temperatures, and decreasing precipitation over the south western peninsula [10, 1
sea ice in the Bellingshausen
Sea, resulting in warmer air temperatures, and decreasing precipitation over the south western peninsula [10, 1
Sea, resulting in warmer air
temperatures, and decreasing precipitation
over the south western peninsula [10, 11].
Arctic
sea ice extent continued a rapid retreat through the first two weeks of July as a high pressure cell moved
over the central Arctic Ocean, bringing higher
temperatures.
Note, the low Arctic
sea -
ice extent
over the last summers are independent evidence of high Arctic
temperatures.
Maue discussed how «two camps» of researchers claim to have increased predictability of such weather events
over periods of a month or more by using clues either in the Arctic, related to the extent of
sea ice and snow cover, or in the
temperature of surface waters across the Pacific Ocean.
An apparent lag in
temperature seen in the Greenland
ice cores might be an artifact of the proximity of the large Laurentide Ice Sheet, which would have limited the near surface air temperature to the freezing point, as happens over summer sea - ice n
ice cores might be an artifact of the proximity of the large Laurentide
Ice Sheet, which would have limited the near surface air temperature to the freezing point, as happens over summer sea - ice n
Ice Sheet, which would have limited the near surface air
temperature to the freezing point, as happens
over summer
sea -
ice n
ice now.
It's hard to imagine how Cowtan and Way could determine with any degree of certainty how «the hybrid method works best
over land and most importantly
sea ice» when there is so little surface air
temperature data
over sea ice.
Beck interpretes the latter as the direct influence of seawater
temperatures, but the measurements near the floating
ice border were just average, not the lowest... Modern measurements give less than 10 ppmv difference
over the
seas from the coldest oceans to the tropics, including a repeat of the trips that Buch made.
Comments Off on Histrionics
over Arctic
temperatures &
sea ice extent: implications for polar bears
The 2009 State of the Climate Report of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate change is real because of rising surface air
temperatures since 1880
over land and the ocean, ocean acidification,
sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity, ocean heat content increasing,
sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreasing, and so many other lines of evidence.
It may be worth considering that if climate models are underplaying the actual amount of Arctic
sea ice loss, and if Arctic
sea ice loss is a positive feedback on global
temperature, then, the observed rate of Arctic
sea ice loss ought to be applying a warming pressure
over and above that from greenhouse gas emissions.
TE, if the AMOC stops, their maps show that Atlantic
temperature gradient is enhanced
over what we have now, because the fresh cold meltwater and
sea ice comes much further south and tightens the gradient.
The
sea ice in the Siberian Arctic is peaking, its effect on the meridional
temperature gradient strong, promoting increased zonal flow of large - scale winds, which advect warm air and moisture
over the Eurasian continent from the Atlantic and disrupt vertical stratification near the surface and promote high cloudiness, both of which lead to increasing
temperatures — greatest at low altitudes and high latitudes.
Over the Arctic Ocean and neighboring seas conventional temperature obser vations are often of uncertain quality, however, owing to logistical obstacles in making measurements over sea ice in harsh environmental conditi
Over the Arctic Ocean and neighboring
seas conventional
temperature obser vations are often of uncertain quality, however, owing to logistical obstacles in making measurements
over sea ice in harsh environmental conditi
over sea ice in harsh environmental conditions.
They found a 60 - to 90 - year cycle in Barents and Greenland
seas ice extent related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO); the AMO is a basin - wide cycle of
sea surface
temperature variability similar to the El Niño and La Niña cycles in the Pacific, but varying
over much longer periods.
While a negative AO leads to warmer
temperatures over the Arctic, it also tends to reduce the flow of
sea ice out of the Arctic by affecting the winds that can export the
ice to warmer waters, where it melts.
SHEBA observations of the evolution of
temperature over the course of winter within the atmosphere (red), at the snow surface (black), at the top of the
sea ice (green), and at the ocean surface beneath the
sea ice (blue).
Over the
sea ice field the observations include:
sea ice freeboard height and hence
sea ice thickness from radar altimetry;
sea ice surface
temperature and
sea ice drift from respectively infrared radiometer and imaging spectrometer under cloud free conditions.
To name just a few of the climate impacts of the annular modes: the NAM is associated with large anomalies in surface
temperatures and precipitation across North American and Eurasia, in the distribution of
sea -
ice throughout the Arctic, in
sea - surface
temperatures over the North Atlantic, and in the spatial distribution ozone in the lower stratosphere.
Both the observations of mass balance and the estimates based on
temperature changes (Table 11.4) indicate a reduction of mass of glaciers and
ice caps in the recent past, giving a contribution to global - average
sea level of 0.2 to 0.4 mm / yr
over the last hundred years.
In recent decades, much research on these topics has raised the questions of «tipping points» and «system flips,» where feedbacks in the system compound to rapidly cause massive reorganization of global climate
over very short periods of time — a truncation or reorganization of the thermohaline circulation or of food web structures, for instance, caused by the loss of
sea ice or warming ocean
temperatures.
As evident in the figures the near surface air
temperatures are actually warmer
over the Arctic Ocean (by
over 1 °C in large areas) when the
sea ice absorbs solar radiation and transfers some of this energy as sensible heat back into the atmosphere.
From that link's words, the DMI «green line» IS the best way to consistently compare the daily estimate of NORTH areas of the arctic — those areas north of 70 latitude to 83 north latitude NASA - GISS extrapolates «surface» ground - based
temperatures as far as 1200 km from where their land - based measurements were made from 60 - 70 latitude
over the ever - greening (and darker) tundra and forests OUT to the open
sea where where the arctic
sea ice actually is present.
Pokrovsky predicts a further acceleration of melting of the thin
ice and in general greater
ice loss compared to his June prediction; this change is based on the increase in the
sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic and the presence of hot air masses
over Siberia and the Russian Arctic.
Currently when the
sea ice area recovers quickly is simply apportioned to colder
temperatures taking
over.
If Arctic
Sea ice recovers, ocean heat content declines, and near surface
temperatures decline
over a 10 year period... why then we might actually have something really worth getting excited about.
Sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) in October were unusually high
over the Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas, as well as the Barents and Kara
Seas along the Eurasian coast, helping to limit
ice growth.
Many more flawed or misleading presentations of Global Warming science exist in the book, including those on Arctic
sea ice thinning, correction of land - based
temperature measurements for the urban heat island effect, satellite vs. ground - based measurements of Earth's warming, and controversies
over sea level rise estimates.
This pattern combined with unusually high
sea surface
temperatures over the Barents and Kara
Seas and helped to keep Arctic
sea ice extent at low levels for November and December.
In a February 2015 blog post, the AEI's energy policy fellow Benjamin Zycher attempted to argue that concerns
over sea level rise, global
temperatures, floods, droughts and
sea ice were overblown and that agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions would be ineffective and too costly.
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that data set), or the complete passing
over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from ocean heat content and
sea levels to changes in
ice sheets and minimum
sea ice levels, or the passing
over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on
temperatures... etc..
This makes sense to me, and may help explain why melting in the Arctic
sea ice was nearly as great as last year's record, despite much lower Arctic
temperatures (see below)
over the last year.
In particular, initial stages of atmospheric model development often take place without coupling to an ocean model, running instead
over observed
sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and
sea ice extent.
(2) the «
Sea Surface»
temperatures, which are averaged
over the global
ice - free oceans (60N to 60S), from the AMSR - E instrument on Aqua.
See also the
Sea Surface
Temperature Anomalies,
Ice and Snow Cover, 1 year animation, from Environment Canada, for snow depth records
over the last 365 days that include Hudson Bay.
(1) there is established scientific concern
over warming of the climate system based upon evidence from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice, and rising global average
sea level;