Multiple factors (forcings and feedbacks) account for the changes in global
temperatures over that timeframe.
Not exact matches
internal / natural variability
over a long enough
timeframe will not alter the long term trend of the
temperature record (as we are always reminded) but in this relatively short term analysis it did especially for the last decade
The first statement in this quote referred to past
temperatures — Lindzen did not believe the surface
temperature record was accurate, and did not believe that the planet had warmed from 1880 to 1989 (in reality, global surface
temperatures warmed approximately 0.5 °C
over that
timeframe).
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade
over the same
timeframe), but that is because
over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global
temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
This coincided with the eruption of Mt Pinatabo which decreased global
temperature over the same
timeframe.
Natural
temperature influences have had a very slight cooling effect, and natural internal variability appears to have had a fairly significant cooling effect
over the past decade, but little
temperature influence
over longer
timeframes.
While Foster and Rahmstorf limited their analysis to the past 32 years (since the start of the satellite
temperature record), Lean and Rind performed their analysis
over a range of
timeframes: from 1889 to 2006, 1905 to 2005, 1955 to 2005, and 1979 to 2005.
Thus the IPCC multi-model average of simulations do not reflect these short - term
temperature influences, which is not a problem for long - term predictions, because positive and negative short - term cycles and noise average out to zero
over long
timeframes.
However, when these influences are filtered out (red), the observed
temperatures fall very close to the central climate model projections, which RFC12 notes are based on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios that accurately reflect the observed CO2 changes
over that
timeframe.
As we have recently discussed, although we can't say for certain statistically, it's likely that the global surface
temperature warming trend has slowed
over the past decade, because virtually all short - term
temperature impacts have been in the cooling direction
over that
timeframe.
After all, we have about 100 years of measured data when it comes to global
temperature, and we have a few thousand years of data that can help us estimate how the earth's
temperature has changed
over that
timeframe.
As such, it is an invaluable tool for quickly comparing
temperature trends
over varying
timeframes.