As LST closely tracks air
temperatures over the instrumental period, we can also infer that air temperatures in this region of East Africa varied in concert with the global average and thus were controlled primarily by the major forcings influencing temperatures over this timescale, both natural (solar radiation, volcanism) and anthropogenic (greenhouse - gas emissions; refs 19, 20).
Wouldn't you want to plot the Tierney proxy temp against the entire record, plot the trend lines and see how they correlate to see if «LST closely tracks air
temperatures over the instrumental period»?
Unfortunately, in their paper they neglected to show how the Lake Tanganyika LST «closely tracks air
temperatures over the instrumental period» of the «past half - century».
So no, the LST proxy reconstruction does not «closely track air
temperatures over the instrumental period.»
Not exact matches
Over the
instrumental period, fractional uncertainty in the latter is very much larger than fractional uncertainty in
temperature change measurements, and is approximately normally distributed.
Furthermore,
temperature is a strongly trending series
over the
instrumental period.
That represents a triple offset to exagerate the predicted cooling as it incorporates the offset introduced by using UAH data instead of the simply using the NCDC data
over the whole
period, adds an additional offset by using the bottom of a La Nina event as a start year, and exagerates that La Nina event by using a satellite
temperature record to show it while using
instrumental record data for the predictions.
Instrumental temperature data are shown by a green line (centered to agree with CH - blend average
over the
period 1880 - 1960).
«The principal difficulty is that the divergence disallows the direct calibration of tree growth indices with
instrumental temperature data
over recent decades (the
period of greatest warmth
over the last 150 years), impeding the use of such data in climatic reconstructions.»
Temperature data
over the past couple of decades is more telling than data from other time
periods within the
instrumental data set,
=== > That the different
period cooling / warming trends exist in narrow to wider bands
over the total
instrumental temperature record
This time
period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured
over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global
instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long
periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp
temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
Over the
instrumental period, fractional uncertainty in the latter is very much larger than fractional uncertainty in
temperature change measurements, and is approximately normally distributed.
Several analyses of ring width and ring density chronologies, with otherwise well - established sensitivity to
temperature, have shown that they do not emulate the general warming trend evident in
instrumental temperature records
over recent decades, although they do track the warming that occurred during the early part of the 20th century and they continue to maintain a good correlation with observed
temperatures over the full
instrumental period at the interannual time scale (Briffa et al., 2004; D'Arrigo, 2006).