For this to be true you would have to prove that minor long - term global air temperature variations drive ocean oscillations and that these ocean oscillations — at some later point — influence global long -
term air temperature trends....
Not exact matches
And it finds that, while this winter's unusually strong Arctic Oscillation - which funnels cold northern
air to the East Coast and pulls warm mid-latitude
air up to the Arctic - is predicted as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, seasonal
temperature anomalies associated with it aren't enough to blunt long -
term warming
trends.
This animation shows how the same
temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long -
term global surface
air warming
trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling
trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the
trend is dominated by short -
term noise in the data (blue steps).
«We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface
air temperature shows no
trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer -
term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»
Although the rate of warming of surface
air and lower troposphere
temperatures appear to have slowed over the past few years, the same could be said at any virtually any point in time by cherrypicking short -
term noise and ignoring the long -
term trend (Figure 2).
This study, which was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, is the first to analyze long -
term trends in rainfall and surface
air temperature over a timescale of nearly an entire century, the study's lead author, Natalie Thomas, a doctoral candidate in atmospheric and oceanic science at the University of Maryland, told Live Science.
At the end of the day, the discussion about a single calendar year obscures the more important long -
term trend of warming
air temperatures, warming and acidifying oceans along with melting ice sheets, all of which are hallmarks of manmade global warming.
Long -
term climate
trends of surface
air temperature should not be expected to have the same
trends for light wind and stronger wind nights, even if the
trends in the boundary layer heat fluxes were the same.
The strong influence of natural variability on surface
air temperatures is the reason that climate researchers regularly point out that any record shorter than around 20 - 30 years is not useful for detecting long -
term trends associated with anthropogenic warming.
«The global surface
air temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long ‐
term warming
trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed.
above: animation showing how the same
temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long -
term global surface
air warming
trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling
trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the
trend is dominated by short -
term noise in the data (blue steps).
In this study, we primarily investigate the reliability of the climatology (long -
term mean of model simulation) of large - scale features of climate model ensembles, but we also consider the
trend for surface
air temperature where transient simulations are available (that is, for the coupled ocean — atmosphere models).
The Bureau's surface
air temperature measurements for Australia compare well with the remotely sensed satellite record in
terms of area - averaged variability and warming
trends.
Easterling and Wehner (2009) showed that «the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface
air temperature shows no
trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer -
term warming.»
This animation shows how the same
temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long -
term global surface
air warming
trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling
trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the
trend is dominated by short -
term noise in the data (blue steps).
The global surface
air temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long -
term warming
trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed.