Sentences with phrase «term average modelling»

In China, prices are peaking at as much as US$ 28 500 a tonne according to Neometals which adds weight to the view that using US$ 11000 a tonne for long term average modelling appears to be quite safe.

Not exact matches

That term generally connotes hacking or a technical compromise of some kind, though the Cambridge Analytica situation involves a since - deprecated lax API and a business model that revolves around collecting massive troves of personal data and doling it out in ways often far from transparent to the average user.

The number of stock options and RSUs is determined by using the Binomial option pricing model and using the 180 - day trailing average stock price as a guide, which helps reduce the impact of short - term share price volatility.

Based on the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) with a 10 % discount rate (the target rate of return), if the company grows the dividend by an average of 7 % per year for the long term, then the fair price is over $ 90, compared to the current stock price of only about $ 83.

We study a prototypical model of a Parliament with two Parties or two Political Coalitions and we show how the introduction of a variable percentage of randomly selected independent legislators can increase the global efficiency of a Legislature, in terms of both number of laws passed and average social welfare obtained.

While a GCM portrayal of temperature would not be accurate to a given day, these models give fairly good estimates for long - term average temperatures, such as 30 - year periods, which closely match observed data.

These answers are processed through the toolkit's statistical model to produce a result which shows where the child is situated in terms of the average level of proficiency across the UK.

She describes recent work that can be modelled in terms of biology being the source of differences between sexes in average behavioural traits, and environment stabilising these differences.

All the models I've seen rely on the assumption that an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases will necessarily increase the long - term average temperature of the globe and that all the other mechanisms that cause or counteract warming are understood and modeled fairly accurately.

In this paper, authors Marguerite Roza and Jessica Jonovski model the impacts of late - term raises on teacher pension obligations showing that on average each dollar raise triggers $ 10 to...

For instance, mathematics teacher Joseph Assof's purpose for one day included goals for content (to use our understanding of linear functions as a foundation for mathematical modeling with average rate of change), language (to use familiar terms to build greater understanding of rates of change), and social learning (to enrich our lesson by participating in whole - class discussions).

In terms of interior space, the Mazda3 is better than average for the class, despite a reduction in height for this model in comparison to its predecessor.

As for resale, Kelley Blue Book expects the 4 - cylinder base models to retain better - than - average residual values, and the V6 Access Cab and Double Cab models to do even better, so the 2015 Tacoma represents a very good long - term investment.

Trax sales fell significantly more than the segment average in December, placing the model in fifth place within its competitive set in terms of overall sales volume, behind the Jeep Compass (see Jeep Compass sales), the Buick Encore, which shares the Trax's platform (see Buick Encore sales), Honda HR - V, and Jeep Renegade (see Jeep Renegade sales).

You won't hurt for room and comfort in the new model, and ride and handling are above average and quite carlike in terms of road - holding ability.

In terms of equipment, the Frontier is obviously from another generation, with a smaller than average 59.5 in length cargo bay and no long - box option on crew - cab models.

A dual clutch transmission will also be available, and in terms of fuel economy this unconventional new model is expected to return an average 40 mpg.

The cash and short - term investment position of the fund was modeled by the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP; average weight of 15.9 %).

In the spreadsheet you are using the full term average, 50 - year average, and 25 - year average, right from the beginning of the model when you do not have the aforementioned time series needed for such long averages from the start.

Terms range from about 12 to 48 months and the average auto title loan funding amount (when encompassing a variety of different makes, models, and years of vehicles) is around $ 4,0001 — definitely enough to help someone get out of a financial jam.

Credit card APRs steady, though banks are tweaking other terms — Even as banks continue to tinker with their business models in reaction to new credit card legislation, the national average annual percentage rate on new credit card offers was unchanged this week at 12.17 percent, according to the CreditCards.com Weekly Credit Card Rate Report.

All the models I've seen rely on the assumption that an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases will necessarily increase the long - term average temperature of the globe and that all the other mechanisms that cause or counteract warming are understood and modeled fairly accurately.

The addition says many climate models typically look at short term, rapid factors when calculating the Earth's climate sensitivity, which is defined as the average global temperature increase brought about by a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Then he used that time series to drive a simple linear globally averaged mixed layer ocean model incorporating a linearized term representing heat loss to space.

There is no modelling of any orbital variations in incoming energy, either daily, yearly or long term Milankovitch variations, based on the assumption that a global yearly average value has a net zero change over the year which is imposed on the energy forcing at the TOA and the QFlux boundary etc..

Such time - dependent or medium - term outlooks, which go beyond historical averages, are already provided by commercial model vendors, such as Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

In the case of climate models, this is complicated by the fact that the time scales involved need to be long enough to average out the short - term noise, i.e. the chaotic sequences of «weather» events.

These small alterations are taken into account in climate models, with the average of all models (i.e. an ensemble forecast, a term you should know well as a former meteorologist), scientists (like those at the IPCC) can arrive at a sensible estimate of what we are likely to experience in the future.

The scientific community has also known for some time that the predicted future global warming in most climate models (more than 2 degrees C.) would probably be well above the long - term average temperature present at any time during the Holocene.

Unfortunately, the figure also confirms that the spatial resolution of theoutput from the GCMs used in the Mediterranean study is too coarse for constructing detailed regional scenarios.To develop more detailed regional scenarios, modelers can combine the GCM results with output from statistical models.3 This is done by constructing a statistical model to explain the observed temperature or precipitation at a meteorological station in terms of a range of regionally - averaged climate variables.

Tom, If you accept that the pauses, previously occurring and the one at the present, are part of long period cycles whose long term average is related to the actual long term trend of temperature (rather than the far steeper slope of rise from just 1980 to 1999), you are admitting that the rise (from whatever cause) has a slope of closer to 0.4 C per century than the super inflated values of 2C to 6C per century claimed by the models and supporters of CAGW.

Looked at from that standpoint, models that accurately account for short - term phenomena, defined as those that 20 - year averaging erases, have no obvious advantage for forecasting 2020 - 2040 or 2090 - 2110 when compared with models that apparently don't such as those in your complaint

As you can see, over periods of a few decades, modeled internal variability does not cause surface temperatures to change by more than 0.3 °C, and over longer periods, such as the entire 20th Century, its transient warming and cooling influences tend to average out, and internal variability does not cause long - term temperature trends.

This should enable Tesla to deliver around 250,000 Model 3s next year, generate roughly $ 25 billion in revenues, and elevate its gross margin to its long term average of 22 % -25 %.

Over the long term, these effects average out, which is why climate models do so well at long - term predictions.

In a system such as the climate, we can never include enough variables to describe the actual system on all relevant length scales (e.g. the butterfly effect — MICROSCOPIC perturbations grow exponentially in time to drive the system to completely different states over macroscopic time) so the best that we can often do is model it as a complex nonlinear set of ordinary differential equations with stochastic noise terms — a generalized Langevin equation or generalized Master equation, as it were — and average behaviors over what one hopes is a spanning set of butterfly - wing perturbations to assess whether or not the resulting system trajectories fill the available phase space uniformly or perhaps are restricted or constrained in some way.

The current version of the figure gives the impression that the IPCC expected temperature to warm continuously year on year, which of course was not the expectation — the projections shown here are just the long - term trend either from averaging the GCMs or using simple climate models.

In each model, Koven identified which gridcells in a warmer climate have a nearby gridcell with a similar climate in terms of average monthly temperature and precipitation.

Over the long term, these discrepancies average out, and the models have been remarkably accurate.

Most model results project increased interannual variability in season - averaged Asian monsoon precipitation associated with an increase in its long - term mean value (e.g., Hu et al., 2000b; Räisänen, 2002; Meehl and Arblaster, 2003).

Andrew says: «Bob Tisdale - Your «model» (cummulative NINO 3.4 anomalies) only gets a long term trend because it has a non-zero, positive long term average.»

Bob Tisdale - Your «model» (cummulative NINO 3.4 anomalies) only gets a long term trend because it has a non-zero, positive long term average.

Many of these short - term influences are very difficult to predict ahead of time, and when averaging many model runs together as the IPCC does, these short - term unpredictable effects on temperature tend to average out to zero.

In short, the global climate models used in the IPCC reports have been very good at predicting the underlying human - caused global surface warming trend, beneath the short - term noise which will average out to zero over time.

In the three years since the 2005 modelling study, the average water supply level was less than half the long - term average and well below the estimated outcome for the «severe» scenario considered in the study.

When we talk about «proof» we're not talking about smoke and mirrors «modelling» based on long - term average wind farm output — which ignores the extra gas and coal being burnt (and wasted) in order to balance the grid to account for wild fluctuations in wind power output (see our post here); and to maintain additional «spinning reserve» (see our post here) to account for complete collapses in wind power output — as seen in this post.

The mismatch between the data and the model predictions, however, raises serious questions on the ability of the multi-decadal global climate models to accurately predict even the global average variability and long term trend of the radiative imbalance of the climate system.

«In response to those who complained in my recent post that linear trends are not a good way to compare the models to observations (even though the modelers have claimed that it's the long - term behavior of the models we should focus on, not individual years), here are running 5 - year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, models versus observations...»

Even if experimental observations suggest that the models get the averages roughly right for a short - term forecast, there is no guarantee they will get them right for atmospheric conditions several decades into the future.

JJ, I think of it in terms of natural variability that the models don't precisely match, but it is self - canceling in the long term as seen over the last 30 years, so it doesn't matter for the big picture, but what matters is that the average warming is represented.