When sources quote the long -
term average stock market return, they typically provide total return figures.
Not exact matches
Investing may earn you more based on oft - quoted long
term averages but, consider this, if the
market tanks by 50 % in one year, it would take over 7 years of so called «
average stock market returns of 10 %» to
return to the same position you were in just prior to the loss, and that is not even factoring in inflation.
In the past, above -
average stock market valuations were followed by below -
average long -
term returns.
Surz maintains that because the
stock market has generated positive
returns about 70 percent of the time historically, simulations of participants» wealth using traditional TDFs» portfolios forecast good
average long -
term results.
Looking back through history, whenever value
stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long -
term returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels, value
stocks have in the past, on
average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect
returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades of experience investing through various
market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor of long -
term value investors.
Many people tout the virtues of
stock investing, especially because history shows that the
stock market has provided one of the greatest sources of long -
term wealth, with compounded
returns averaging 10 percent per year over the past 100 years.
Rising
stock markets — the S&P 500 has tripled since reaching a low in March 2009 and over the last 10 years, the largest public pension plans have earned an
average return of 7.45 percent, broadly in line with the median long -
term goal of 8 percent — have boosted pension plan coffers to the highest level of assets they've ever had.
Our chart above shows an example of saving $ 5,500 per year for 29 years at a 7 % growth rate (roughly the long
term average return of the
stock market).
On
average, the
stock market has
returned 10 percent annually over the long
term, but this rate is closer to 6 percent when you adjust for inflation.
This is more than double the
average return to
stock market investments since 1950, and more than five times the
returns to corporate bonds, gold, long -
term government bonds, or home ownership.
The $ 102,000 investment in a four - year college yields a rate of
return of 15.2 percent per year — more than double the
average return over the last 60 years experienced in the
stock market (6.8 percent), and more than five times the
return to investments in corporate bonds (2.9 percent), gold (2.3 percent), long -
term government bonds (2.2 percent), or housing (0.4 percent).
Simply this: The
stock market isn't poised to produce
returns that are in line with even its long -
term annualized
average of around 10 %, much less the 20 % - plus
returns we have seen over the past five years.
The fact that the U.S.
stock market has been delivering an
average long -
term return of 6.5 percent real for 140 years obviously does NOT make that
return a lock for -LSB-...]
I tend to be conservative and use 7 %
returns for most of my projections, which is a little under the long -
term historical
stock market average return rate.
If today's Shiller P / E is 22.2, and your long -
term plan calls for a 10 % nominal (or with today's inflation about 7 - 8 % real)
return on the
stock market, you are basically rooting for the absolute best case in history to play out again, and rooting for something drastically above the
average case from these valuations.
Obviously, it wasn't perfect, but if you were a long -
term investor, here was a simple strategy that produced positive
average returns that weren't correlated to the
stock market.
The
stock market has
averaged around 6 - 7 % annual total
return over the long -
term, so by investing instead of paying down debt you are in fact earning an incremental profit (or less opportunity cost on your money).
The long -
term average return of the S&P 500 is a reasonable base rate for
stock market returns.
Getting a certain cagr
return (
averaged over long
term as
stock market is volatile and nonlinear) is, for an investor of money.
Over the long
term, the
average annual
return of the
stock market is closer to 10 %.
Broad
stock market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) and the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 have
averaged 9 to 10 % in annual
returns over the long
term.
There would be price discipline in the
market and the
market price would go up each year only by the
average long -
term return amount (6.5 percent real), which is the real addition to value that
stock investors see each year.
Over the long
term broad
stock market index funds have
averaged an annual
return of about 8 %.
If you earn
returns even close to the
stock market's long -
term averages for an extended period of time, having all your
stock gains be completely tax - free upon withdrawal will be a huge benefit.
Paying off 4 - 5 % debt (guaranteed
return) vs investing long -
term in the
stock market at an ~ 8 % (pretax)
average return is not a huge margin for the increased volatility and risk.
The
average return for the
stock market over the last five years has been in the high teens — close to 20 percent — whereas the long -
term average return has been in the high single digits.»
Long -
term performance comparisons bear out those definitions: small - cap value
stocks have dramatically outperformed large - cap growth
stocks since mid-1926 with total
returns averaging 14.82 percent per year vs 9.72 percent per year, according to data maintained by economist Kenneth French of the famous Fama - French
stock market research team.