Not exact matches
But, «the U.S. and the Bank of England have gone to more extremes because they have
interest rates below the Bank of Canada's, and they've also been buying
bonds to lower longer
term interest rates,» Shenfeld added.
Still, combine the indications of the short -
term bond market with today's 5 % GDP news and you get the sense that stock traders betting on low
interest rates for longer periods of time may soon have to bail out.
The caveat with this method is that
bonds and annuities typically come with long -
term interest rates, and from a wealth perspective, that's more dangerous than short -
term ones.
Alternatively, it's best to shorten the average
term to maturity of your
bond portfolio as
interest rates enter into a rising cycle, because the shorter the
term, the less their price will be affected.
To explain this concept a bit further, we already know that the longer a
bond's
term to maturity, the more sensitive its price is to changes in
interest rates.
Long -
term interest rates could rise abruptly, as
bond prices fall.
And corporations have spent the last decade issuing longer -
term bonds to take advantage of low
interest rates.
And with a strong - enough economy spurring the Federal Reserve to raise short -
term interest rates,
bond investors may need to reduce expectations.
The simplified explanation for this aberrant investing disaster was a dramatic rise in
interest rates during the period: Rates on long - term government bonds went from 4 % at year - end 1964 to more than 15 % in
rates during the period:
Rates on long - term government bonds went from 4 % at year - end 1964 to more than 15 % in
Rates on long -
term government
bonds went from 4 % at year - end 1964 to more than 15 % in 1981.
While U.S. savings
bonds have lost popularity as a means of long -
term savings due to the low
interest rates they currently earn, some retirees have been holding on to
bonds that were issued when
rates were higher.
Already, the
bond yield curve, which measures the difference between short -
term interest rates and long one, has been rising.
This tool uses the present value of
bond portfolios, adjusted for
interest rate and inflation expectations, to show current retirees how much in retirement savings they need today to account for every $ 1 they need in the future, assuming they hold a portfolio made up entirely of investment - grade
bonds and longer -
term Treasurys.
The Fed had lowered
interest rates down to zero in
terms of short -
term rates and that pushed
bond yields down.
By secular reflation, we mean at least a decade in which short - and long -
term interest rates stay habitually below nominal GDP growth and high grade
bonds are not really
bonds any more: delivering trend returns that are close to zero or even negative.
Residential real estate had taken on a healthy pace in late 2012 and early 2013 but has slowed since the Federal Reserve started talking about reducing its monthly
bond purchase, which helps keep long -
term interest rates low.
The risk - free
interest rate approximates the yield on benchmark Government of Canada
bonds for
terms similar to the contract life of the options.
In our
terms, there are value investors for Treasuries 10: There are lots of natural buyers and sellers of
interest rates, and if Treasury
bonds crash dramatically someone will step in to buy them.
Many funds companies, including Vanguard and Fidelity, offer short -
term bond funds that will likely outperform during a rising
interest -
rate period.
Progress in a few areas has been solid: slashing of bureaucratic red tape has led to a surge in new private businesses; full liberalization of
interest rates seems likely following the introduction of bank deposit insurance in May; Rmb 2 trillion (US$ 325 billion) of local government debt is being sensibly restructured into long -
term bonds; tighter environmental regulation and more stringent resource taxes have contributed to a surprising two - year decline in China's consumption of coal.
Interest rate expectations are constantly changing over the short -
term but over longer periods
bond returns are more or less based on math.
The biggest disadvantage of buying a Treasury
bond is that the
interest rate could rise during its
term, which means your money might be tied up in an investment that pays 2.75 percent
interest when you could be getting 4 percent or 5 percent — or more.
But that relationship has been tested over the life of this
bond bull market that saw double digit
interest rates fall over the past 30 + years, boosting the performance of long -
term bonds.
Let me remind you that monetary policy operates with a long lag and there are many transmission channels through which
interest rate changes affect the economy, including longer -
term bond yields and the exchange
rate.
For
bond investors with a short -
term investment horizon, it is absolutely critical to think about rising
interest rates.
Yes, cheap money polices did help stabilize a reeling housing sector, that shouldn't be dismissed, but what else does the Fed have to show for near - zero short
term interest rates and the fortune spent lowering longer
term rates through its
bond buying program?
Because most wealthy Chinese seem to think about RMB in
terms of USD or Hong Kong dollars, it is the fear that any depreciation of the RMB against those two currencies (the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD through a modified currency board) greater than the couple of percentage points
interest rate differential would yield less than equivalent USD or Hong Kong dollar
bonds.
With extraordinary low
interest rates and modest inflation, investing in long -
term bonds to capture as much yield as possible may seem like a smart move.
Bond prices rise when
interest rates fall, and vice versa; the effect is usually more pronounced for longer -
term securities.
The recent spike in
interest rates, and corresponding drop in
bond prices, has left longer -
term U.S.
bonds looking more reasonable.
What we have really seen over the past several years, in
terms of the appreciation of markets and the decline of
interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in
bonds and stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
One is legitimate — every year in which short -
term interest rates are expected to be zero instead of say, a typical 4 %, should reasonably warrant a 4 % valuation premium in stocks and
bonds, over and above run - of - the - mill historical norms (one can demonstrate this using any discounted cash flow approach).
The
rates that have responded most significantly to lower borrowing costs are short -
term loans for financial speculation, above all for derivatives and related buying or selling of stocks and
bonds on margin — enormous gambles on which way the dollar, the stock market and
interest rates may go.
We assumed that in each period a 30 - year
bond is issued at prevailing
interest rates (long -
term government
bond plus 1 %) and that amount is invested for the next 30 years in a portfolio of large - cap stocks while paying off the
bond as an amortized loan (as if it were a mortgage).
Over the last twenty years, investors have witnessed a steady decline in the
interest rate on investment grade
bonds, GICs and
term deposits.
Funds can also have different levels of
interest rate sensitivity depending on whether they focus their investments on short, intermediate, or long -
term bonds.
The recent spike in
interest rates, and corresponding drop in
bond prices, has left longer -
term U.S.
bonds looking...
Although
bonds generally present less short -
term risk and volatility than stocks,
bonds do contain
interest rate risk (as
interest rates rise,
bond prices usually fall, and vice versa) and the risk of default, or the risk that an issuer will be unable to make income or principal payments.
What is the risk - free
interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long -
term U.S.
bonds)?
Yields on long -
term Treasury
bonds dropped markedly, and analysts predicted that
interest rates on fixed -
rate mortgages would soon drop below 5 percent.
Bond market geeks refer to this as a «flattening of the yield curve,» meaning that shorter -
term interest rates rose while longer -
term interest rates fell.
For example, an
interest rate swap is a derivative whereby two parties exchange, or «swap,»
interest payments on a
bond; one side might get a constant 3 percent each payment period, while the other gets the LIBOR
rate (a benchmark
rate that some banks charge each other for short -
term loans).
In part, the
bond yield curve — the difference between short -
term and long -
term interest rates — is an indicator of future economic growth expectations.
We could take the $ 16 billion we have in cash earning 1.5 % and invest it in 20 - year
bonds earning 5 % and increase our current earnings a lot, but we're betting that we can find a good place to invest this cash and don't want to take the risk of principal loss of long -
term bonds [if
interest rates rise, the value of 20 - year
bonds will decline].»
Interest -
rate risk is generally greater for longer -
term bonds, and credit risk is generally greater for below - investment - grade
bonds, which may be considered speculative.
Thus fluctuations in
interest rates will cause the total return on
bonds to fluctuate, with long -
term bonds fluctuating more than short -
term bonds.
(Longer -
term bonds risk a price decline if U.S
interest rates should rise.)
That could mean investors are moving money out of stocks and into
bonds in anticipation of disappointing earnings; or that foreigners who are worried about their own economies are looking for a safer haven in the U.S.; or that expectations of future inflation have declined, allowing long -
term interest rates to come down a little.
Put simply, even taking account of current
interest rate levels, and even assuming that stocks should be priced to deliver commensurately lower long -
term returns, we currently estimate that the S&P 500 is about 2.8 times the level at which equities would provide an appropriate risk premium relative to
bonds.
(Longer -
term bonds risk a domestic dollar - price decline if U.S
interest rates should rise.)
Legg Mason plans to close a deal this month to restructure $ 650 million in debt, a move designed to lock in favorable
interest rates for the long
term while taking advantage of the market's sustained appetite for corporate
bonds.